Set forth below is the text of a post that I put to the Goon Central board concerning Wade Pfau, associate professor of economics at the National Graduate Institute for Economic Studies:
Does Dr. Pfau not post honestly?
He does not post with full honesty, Yip.
Wade wrote to the authors of the Trinity Study asking that they correct the errors in their studies.
The Sewer Rats threatened to get him fired from his job for doing so.
He announced shortly thereafter that he would no longer be doing research on valuation-related topics.
He followed that up by putting up a post to my blog saying that he thought it was “harsh” of me to say that Bill Bengen should correct his SWR study now that he acknowledges that he got the numbers wildly wrong.
Wade’s research is possibly the most important research ever published in this field. I believe that there will come a day when Wade will be awarded a Nobel prize for the work he has done. I believe that a case can be made that Wade’s study showing that long-term timing greatly increases long-term returns while greatly reducing risk rivals Shiller’s 1981 research in importance. There is no bigger fan of Wade Pfau on this planet than Rob Bennett.
But, yes, he disgraces himself when he posts at the Bogleheads Forum. He knows about Lindauer. I know he knows because I saw his response to Mel when Mel accused him of dishonest research practices. The proper response to Mel’s dishonesty is not to stop producing research that offends Mel. It is to tell Mel where to shove it and to take whatever steps are needed to see that the sorts of Internet Sewer Rats who have chosen of their own volition to put up posts in “defense” of Mel are removed from community resources like the Bogleheads Forum.
Wade has a right to post honestly at that forum. I have a right to post honestly at that forum. Larry Swedroe has a right to post honestly at that forum. Mike Piper has a right to post honestly at that forum. Bill Bernsteinzzz has a right to post honestly at that forum. John Walter Russell had a right to post honestly at that forum when he was alive. Microlepsis has a right to post honestly at that forum. Michael Kitces has a right to post honestly at that forum. John Craig has a right to post honestly at that forum. Todd Tressider has a right to post honestly at that forum. John Bogle has a right to post honestly at that forum.
All of us true Bogleheads should be throwing up when Mel tells Jack “Go woof-woof, Jack, all us Goons want to hear you go “woof-woof” and Old Saint Jack goes “woof-woof.” It smells. It smells awful. It must stop. So it will stop. I will see to it that it stops.
Get Rich Quick investing strategies don’t just destroy our retirement hopes, Yip. They eat out out souls. Humans are creatures that have the ability to make use of reason. When we give up use of our reason in the pursuit of Get Rich Quick fantasies, we become something less than human. When Wade or any of the rest of us go along to get along with the Goons, we make the problem worse. When Wade’s name appears at the Bogleheads Forum, he lends credibility to a corrupt enterprise.
I don’t lend my credibility to corrupt enterprises, Yip. Perhaps you’ve noticed.
The internet will be opened to honestzz posting on safe withdrawal rates and to many other critically important investment-related topics. And all of the people listed above will be feeling a whole big bunch better about themselves when it is. And all the people who try to benefit from the powerful insights put forward by these people will be obtaining a great deal more benefit from them when we are all able to engage in warm and friendly and intelligent and informed and, yes, HONEST discussion of stock investing at every investing board and blog on the internet.
There’s a part of you that tells you that you should be posting honestly yourself. Listen to that voice. It’s by listening to that voice that you make the break from Buy-and-Hold and become an effective long-term investor and and effective long-term human being.
This is my sincerezzz take re this important topic.
Rob
Wade wrote to the authors of the Trinity Study asking that they correct the errors in their studies.
Something that you have never done. You would rather post thousands of times at “Goon Central”
Something that you have never done.
I’ve never written to the Trinity Study authors, Evidence. I encouraged Wade to do so. I have encouraged others to do so at earlier times.
I have been urging correction of the Old School SWR studies since the morning of May 13, 2002. I think it would be fair to say that I am the leader on this issue. It’s not good to have all the requests coming from the same person. Everyone working in this field should be involved.
What had Bogle done? What has Bernstein done? What has Shiller done? What has Buffett done? What has J.D. Roth done? And on and on and on.
These people are part of the investing advice community. They should care whether there is integrity in the way the community conducts its business. There was no integrity when Motley Fool banned honest posting on SWRs. There was no integrity when Morningstar banned honest posting on SWRs. There was no integrity when the Bogleheads Forum banned honest posting on SWRs.
My job is to get lots of other people involved. Wade wants to post honestly. He is afraid. The Greaney Goons have threatened to get him fired from his job if he does so. Bogle wants to post honestly. He is afraid. I don’t know what threats the Lindaurheads have made to secure his silence but my guess is that we will all be further sickened by their behavior when the full story re that one comes out.
You know what?
All the fear goes away when we make a decision to stick together as a community. The Lindauerheads cannot touch Bogle when we make it clear that we all have his back. The Greaney Goons cannot touch Wade when we make it clear that we all have his back.
There have been sickos like the individuals who have posted in “defense” of Lindauer and Greaney going back to the beginning of time. There is a reason why every civilization, including ours, has laws to protect itself from such sickos. We need to begin enforcing those laws against the sickos who caused this economic crisis. We do that by working up the courage to stick our necks out, knowing that we will be protected from the sickos by the many other fine people in this field who have made it clear that they will be standing with us when the sickos go on the attack.
I can urge my fellow community members to take action. I have done so. Many times. Going back to the morning of May 13, 2002. I cannot take the actions for them. Each community member, from the biggest name to the smallest name, needs to work up the courage to do that on his or her own.
My voice alone doesn’t get the job done, Evidence. My voice, combined with the voices of Bogle and Pfau and Bernstein and Buffett and J.D. and Shiller and the owners of Morningstar and the Bogleheads Forum and Motley Fool, can accomplish truly great and wonderful things.
You dig, man?
Rob
You would rather post thousands of times at “Goon Central”
I have mentioned on numerous occasions how the smell makes me gag every time I pay a visit to Goon Central, Evidence. I don’t post there for fun. I post there because it is part of my job of helping us all manage the transition from Buy-and-Hold to Valuation-Informed Indexing.
I mention up above that, when we became a civilized people, we adopted laws protecting us from the sorts of Internet Sewer Rats that gather at Goon Central. How often do you think I would post there if those laws had been enforced by the people who have the job of enforcing them? Obviously I would be far too busy helping the millions of middle-class Americans who need to learn the realities of stock investing, right? So I am not there by choice. I am there because people like Bogle and Buffett and Bernstein and Shiller and Pfau and J.D. Roth have until now not been holding up their end of the bargain.
These people are afraid of the Lindauerheads and the Greaney Goons. They created a monster when they put their names behind the Buy-and-Hold garbage that is destroying us all today. There are people who believed them, okay? Not everybody gets it that the idea that there is some mysterious “study” supporting Buy-and-Hold was intended as a funny, funny joke. There are people who believed the marketing garbage and formed their retirement plans in accordance with the dictates of the Buy-and-Hold mumbo jumbo.
I think it would be fair to say that most of the L Heads and most of the G Goons are such people. They are in great emotional pain today. They are embarrassed to learn that they were taken. They are ashamed to have done such financial damage to themselves and to their friends. They are worried that they have put themselves on the hook for hundreds of millions in legal recoveries when our economy goes into the Second Great Depression and people learn the realities of what the last 30 years of research says about the chances that a Buy-and-Hold strategy might work for any long-term investor.
Are they not a big part of the problem we face?
I do not endorse the behavior of the L Heads and the G Goons, as you well know. I condemn it. In the strongest possible terms.
But my most important job is to get the word out about Valuation-Informed Indexing and the 80 percent reduction in risk that stock investors experience when they abandon the Buy-and-Hold garbage and open themselves to investing pursuant to what the last 30 years of academic research says actually works. How do you expect I am going to do that?
The L Heads and the G Goons are our natural supporters, are they not? All of these people once had an interest in learning how to invest effectively or in how to retire early. They didn’t start out with the thought of devoting their life energies to causing economic crises that would wipe them out of the wealth it took them decades to acquire. So I think it would be fair to say that a big part of my job is to figure out what it is that is driving these people, why they are so filled with hate and rage and anger and contempt at the academic research and the historical data and at the people who report honestly on it or who work up the courage to post words in support of the people who post honestly on it.
That all makes sense, right?
The Goon Central board smells, Evidence. You got me on that one. It smells something awful. If I had my way, I would never step foot in the place again.
But there is life after Goon Central. There is life after Buy-and-Hold. There is life after this economic crisis. There is life after the Second Great Depression.
That life comes to us by giving up Buy-and-Hold and learning about the NON-Get Rich Quick approach to stock investing — Valuation-Informed Indexing. There are no “sides” in this battle to leave the ugliness behind us and to move forward to something 5,000 times better. It’s good stuff piled on top of good stuff piled on top of good stuff piled on top of good stuff. For women and men. For whites and blacks. For the old and the young. For Monkees fans and Beatles fans. For Buy-and-Holders and for Valuation-Informed Indexers.
Do you see?
We all have goonishness inside us. If we didn’t, the L Heads and the Greaney Goons could never have gotten to first base.
We all want to invest in a human and life-affirming way. EVEN THE L HEADS AND THE G GOONS.
Our job is to reach these people.
We need to do it through a combination of approaches. We need to sue them. We need to hold them financially accountable for the harm they have done to millions of middle-class people. We also need to extend the hand of kindness to them. They are our fellow humans. There but for the grace of God might go some of us. We have goonishness inside us. What if our goonishness had grown to such levels that we had ourselves put up posts in “defense” of Lindauer or Greaney? We might in different circumstances have become L Heads or G Goons ourselves.
We live among the humans. It is humans who invest. To understand investing, we must make an effort to understand the humans.
The L Heads and the G Goons are humans. No, they are! They don’t want you to see it. They do everything possible to cover it up. But I know what I am talking about re this one. I knew a lot of the Goons in the days before they were Goons. I was good friends with a good number of them. There was a time when they possessed many human qualities and were not ashamed to let people see that they are humans.
Our job is to encourage them to get in touch with that humanity again. We don’t do it by being so sickened by the smell of their headquarters that we refuse to step foot in it. I will continue to post at Goon Central for as long as I think some good can come of it (while never agreeing to post dishonestly on SWRs or any other critically important investing-related topic, to be sure).
You’re a Goon, Evidence. You could help us all out by telling us about this sickness that makes a Goon a Goon. Could I interest you in writing a Guest Blog Entry for the site? My guess is that you could tell me things about the Goon phenomenon that would never occur to me despite my years of trying to get to the core of it. I’m a Watcher. You’re a Doer.
Are you game, my longtime Goon friend?
Rob
10 years of endlessly harping about errors in a study and you have never once found the time to contact the authors? OMG
Do you not know how to work the e-mail function on your computer, Visage?
This is a community project. We’re all in this together, my friend. It’s your economic system as much as it is mine.
Rob
Mr. Bennett: I find this entire exchange truly odd. You complain about a study, tell others to e-mail the authors, but refuse to do so yourself? I’m new here, but I don’t see how you can justify this contradictory behavior.
I like how Rob created this imaginary world where his ‘job’s is to get random people on the Internet to email some professors.
And BTW, how exactly were they going to ‘get him fired’ from his job? This post makes no sense – do you have links or any evidence that your claims are accurate?
And what is with the weird ‘z’s at the end of your sentences. Is that your inside way of saying that your post is just a joke for our amusement?
I don’t see how you can justify this contradictory behavior.
Please read the comment above, Kimber.
Rob
I like how Rob created this imaginary world where his ‘job’s is to get random people on the Internet to email some professors.
Every last one of us is affected by the economic crisis, What. When the economy collapses, our way of life collapses.
Say that you were drafted to serve in the armed forces. You might wonder how it came to be that it became your job to defend your country. It just happened. Someone has to do it and the fates aligned so that you were one of the ones chosen.
You have a role to play here, What. We all do. Lots of people are waiting for someone else to take action. There is no someone else. It’s just us. All of us.
Rob
And BTW, how exactly were they going to ‘get him fired’ from his job?
You get someone fired from his job by telling lies about him, What. How would you think you would do it?
It’s not a news flash that Buy-and-Hold doesn’t work. The research showing this was published in 1981. That’s over 30 years ago.
How do you think this was covered up for three decades?
We’re now in a situation where it is getting harder and harder to continue to cover it up. The internet permits middle-class people to talk things over with each other. We all need to know what the research on stock investing says. We can use this new communications medium to learn what we need to learn.
The trouble is that a lot of us want to believe in Buy-and-Hold. We have staked our retirements on it. We have told our friends about it and persuaded them to follow it. So we feel very bad looking at the realities, that it is a Get Rich Quick scheme and a most dangerous one at that.
We are suffering from cognitive dissonance. That’s a phenomenon you see when someone experiences pain when coming into contact with a truth that he does not want to accept. He ignores the truth. But he can’t really ignore it. On some level of consciousness, he knows it and it bothers him that he knows it. So he experiences all sorts of conflicts and pressures and pains.
This is not the first time this has happened. It is the fourth time. All secular bull markets are the product of cognitive dissonance. Bull markets are a logical impossibility in a world in which investors have easy access to good information about how the stock market works. We create bull markets by engaging in fantasy, by creating Social Taboos that restrict what can be said about the realities of stock investing for a time.
The difference today is that this all gets recorded in Post Archives on the internet. I think that’s a good thing. I think we can use those Post Archives to help each other overcome the cognitive dissonance, learn the realities of stock investing and overcome the economic crisis.
Anyway, you get someone fired from his job by telling lies about him. Those of us doing this sort of thing should stop doing it and those of us tolerating others do it should stop tolerating others doing it. We all need to know what the academic research says. So we should be encouraging the researchers to tell us honestly what it says. Threatening researchers serves no constructive purpose whatsoever. It is a lose/lose/lose/lose/lose.
It is an act of desperation. If there were any studies showing that Buy-and-Hold could work, the Buy-and-Holders obviously would never resort to such behavior.
Rob
This post makes no sense – do you have links or any evidence that your claims are accurate?
Yes. Please go to the “About” section of the blog (at the top of this page). That section provides an overview of what we have learned during the first ten years of our discussions. It will point you to all the materials you need to get up to speed with all of this.
Rob
And what is with the weird ‘z’s at the end of your sentences.
This comment doesn’t make any sense to me, What.
Rob
Rob…I have no idea what the error is. It’s probably better that you email them since you seem to know.
Um — good point, Visage.
Rob
“sincerezzz” <– is that your way of saying that your posts are an inside joke type thing and not serious? I hope for your sake it is.
I went to Bogleheads to read Wade's posts. I didn't see any threats directed his way about getting fired. In fact, Wade seems to be an positive active participant who is not combative at all. Who is spreading lies about who?
Please supply some links to back up your claims.
And I noticed he also seems to be able to speak quite freely about the ‘SWR’ topic and how a much lower than 4% withdraw rate is probably your best bet.
Why is he able to do so while you get constantly banned? Attitude, demeanor, and conduct.
I went to Bogleheads to read Wade’s posts. I didn’t see any threats directed his way about getting fired.
John Greaney is te author of one of the Old School safe withdrawal rate studies. He learned that he got the numbers wrong in his study in May 2002. His response was to form a Goon Squad and to terrorize the board community that was discussing the errors in his study and how to go about calculating the SWR accurately. His Goon Squad meets today at this board:
http://www.s152957355.onlinehome.us/cgi-bin/yabb2/YaBB.pl?board=HOCO
There were hundreds of community members who showed great interest in the idea of calculating the SWR properly at the Bogleheads Forum. Mel Lindaur made positive mention of the Greaney study in his book (“The Boglheads Guide to Investing”) and wanted to shut these discussions down.He and his friends implored Morningstar.com to ban honest posting and Morningstar refused.So Mel called in the Greaney Goons, who had a reputation for using threats of physical violence to stop such discussions. At that point, the board disintegrated. LIndauer urged community members to leave Morningstar to go to a new board where he would have complete control over what is said. This is the Bogleheads Forum of today.
Bill Bengen is the person who came up with the methodology used in the Old School SWR studies. Bill has acknowledged in public interviews that the SWR cannot be calculated accurately without inclusion of an adjustment for valuations. Yet he has not corrected his study. THere are people to this day who do Google searches for retirement planning and see these studies that get the numbers wildly wrong and who will be suffering failed retirements in days to come because the authors did not correct the studies when they learned they got the numbers wrong and because the rest of us tolerated such behavior for fear of what the Lindaurheads and the Greaney Goons would do to us and our families in the event we posted honestly.
I of course have sympathy for all who have been threatened with physical violence or with the loss of their jobs or careers by the Lindauerheads and the Greaney Goons. However, that is not the most important issue here. The most important issue is that we restore the integrity of the financial planning field. The conventional investing advice of today is rooted in the Efficient Market Hypothesis, which was discredited by academic research published 30 years ago. We need to have a national debate on this terrible decision to cover up what the academic research says, to thereby bring on trillions in losses for middle-class investors, and to thereby ultimately bring on the worst economic crisis in U.S. history.
Wade should not have to lose his job because he posts honestly on SWRs and other critically important questions. No one should. The full reality is that Wade will be protected from the L Heads and the G Goons when we all begin speaking out in firm and clear and bold and firm and uncompromising ways about the intimidation tactics that have been used for 10 years now by dogmatic Buy-and-Holders to block honest discussion of the dangers of Buy-and-Hold on the internet. We are all in this together. When we all act together, the bullies lose their power to intimidate us.
Here is a link to a thread we held here recently in which Wade took the position that it was “harsh” of me to expect that Bill Bengen would correct the errors in his retirement study once he publicly acknowledged them:
http://arichlife.passionsaving.com/2011/12/27/bill-bengen-buy-and-hold-in-these-environments-is-an-invitation-to-disaster/#comments
I think it would be fair to say that the words of that thread tell the story of why we are in an economic crisis today and why the way out is for all responsible people in this field to work up the courage to stand up to the L Heads and the G Goons. Those setting themselves up as investing experts should be giving honest advice. That means giving advice not influenced by the intimidation tactics of the lowest among us.
This is my sincere take re this terribly important investing topic, in any event.
Rob
I also don’t see any threats directed at Wayne in the threads you linked to.
Here’s an overview, Visage:
http://arichlife.passionsaving.com/about/
Read and weep.
Rob
There is nothing in the page you linked to that makes any mention of the Bogleheads trying to get Wayne fired.
These links seem to have nothing to do with ‘threats directed at Wade Pfau on bogleheads’.
Do you have any credible evidence whatsoever?
You need to read the material at the link again, Visage and What.
Read it slowly and with care.
If you detect emotion rising in you, take a breather. Calm down and come back later.
This has worked for many, many people. It can work for you too.
It’s not intellectually difficult at all. It’s emotionally very, very difficult for the long-time Buy-and-Holder.
I wish you both the best.
Rob
I have read your material. I have even searched for Wade’s name to no avail. So, I will ask one more time, can you point me to information that confirms your accusation that members of the Bogleheads forum tried to get Wade fired?
Read the overview again, Visage.
You have been listening to the Buy-and-Hold garbage pumped out by the con men on Wall Street for years now, right? Well, it is going to take some time for you to train your mind to see things in a new and more rational light.
Read it again. If you sense your blood pressure rising, take a break. Take a walk. Play with the dog. Do a puzzle. Then come back to it.
You’ll get there, my good friend. Lots of people have done so before you. You are every bit as smart as they are. It’s not a lack of intellect that is holding you back. It is the emotional appeal of Get Rich Quick and the rationalizing that all Get Rick Quickers engage in when they begin to sense their mistakes and feel their pride being hurt by the realization.
Read it again. You have nothing to lose but the wipeout losses you will suffer if you continue to follow the Buy-and-Hold strategies pushed so hard by the con men who on Wall Street who are so skilled at taking a buck out of your pocket and placing it into their own.
My best wishes for your long-term financial success, Visage.
Rob
It is now clear that you have no credible evidence at all to back up your accusation that the Bogleheads threatened to get Wade fired.
I can read the page over and over again, but that won’t change the fact that it does nothing to support your accusations.
I can read the page over and over again, but that won’t change the fact that it does nothing to support your accusations.
Reading the words and paying no attention to what they say won’t help a tiny bit, Visage.
Reading the words with the aim of learning where you got on the wrong track and what you need to do get back on the right track will make all the difference in the world.
Di you ever find yourself trying something and failing at it over and over and over again. Then one day you relax a little and stop trying so hard and the answer comes to you in a flash. That’s how people find their way out of Get Rich Quick thinking and discover the benefits of research-supported strategies. There is a magic click moment after which all the rationalizing just doesn’t seem to make sense any more.
With lots of people, it happens after a big financial loss. Perhaps you should let it rest for a while and come back and read the words again after you suffer a big loss.
We’re going to get you in the end, my good friend! You hang in there. You’ll see. I’ve seen it happen many times before and I think before the end of the day we’ll see it with you too.
Get Rich Quick is not the answer, Get RIch Quick is the problem!
Rob
You are completely delusional
You know what, Visage?
If I were, I would be the last to know it.
I don’t think you are right. But I certainly would never want anyone to follow any investing strategy based on my say-so. Perhaps I am delusional, you know?
I encourage you to check out what you see here to determine if there is anything for you here. If not, please move on to other places and other voices in which you find greater value.
If it turns out that I really am delusional and I come to realize it, I promise to think back to this day and to have warm feelings in my heart for my friend Visage, who at least tried to steer me in the right direction even though I was deaf to his entreaties at the time.
Fair enough, my old friend?
Rob
Rob – if you can’t point out any concrete evidence of ‘threats to get someone fired’ but are convinced that such threats exist, then you are indeed delusional.
Evidence of a “A threat directed to Wade Pfau on Bogleheads” would have to involve a link to a thread on Bogleheads where such threat was made.
Are you actually going to law enforcement/lawyers with this type of crackpot stuff? Be careful with that, they might put you in an institution.
I’ve provided a link to you, What.
You need to soften your heart enough to say the words “I” and “Was” and “Wrong.” Then you will be able to read the words that appear at the link for comprehension. When you strike out because of your wounded pride, it’s not only other people you hurt. You hurt What too.
I’ll be praying for What and for all those other people too, my emotionally wounded friend.
Rob