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A Rich Life

The Old Ideas on Saving & Investing Don't Work -- Here's What Does

  • "Valuation-Informed Indexing Is the Same Song We Sing. Glad You Belong to the Same Choir We Do."





    Carolyn McClanahan, Director of Financial Planning
    for Life Planning Partners, Inc.

  • "Retirees Now Frequently Base Their Retirement Decisions on the Portfolio Success Rates Found in Research Such as the Trinity Study.... This Is Not the Information They Need for Making Their Withdrawal Rate Decisions."




    Wade Pfau, Academic Researcher

  • "The P/E10 Tool Could Drastically Change
    How the Entire Investment Industry
    Operates and Measures Risk."





    Larry, A PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "The Your Money or Your Life Book
    for a New Generation."





    Beatrix Fernandex, Book Reviewer
    for Dollar Stretcher Site

  • "A Newer School of Thought Believes That the Safe Withdrawal Rate Depends on How Stocks Are Priced at the Time You Begin Making Withdrawals."





    Scott Burns, Dallas Morning News Finance Columnist

  • "A Fascinating Retirement Calculator."







    Michael Kitces, Maryland Financial Planner

  • "The Evidence is Pretty Incontrovertible. Valuation-Informed Indexing...Is Everywhere Superior to Buy-and-Hold Over Ten-Year Periods."




    Norbert Schenkler,
    Co-Owner of Financial WebRing Forum

  • "Every Detail Shows Rob's Respect
    for His Information and His Reader."






    Audrey Owen, Owner of Writer's Helper Site

  • "You’ve Accomplished Something Radical
    With Your Idea of Passion Saving."





    Mark Michael Lewis,
    Money, Mission & Meaning Talk Show Host

  • "Big Moves Out of Stocks Should Not Be Done at All. But Strategic Asset Allocation Can Be Done At Very Rare Times, Maybe Six Times in an Investor’s Lifetime, Three Times When the Market Is Stupidly High and Three Times When Stupidly Low."



    John Bogle, Founder of Vanguard Funds

  • "Valuation-Informed Investing and Passive Investing
    Share More of a Common Ancestry
    Than It Might Appear at First."





    Jacob Irwin, Owner of Passive Investing Blog Carnival

  • "It Is Great to See a Finance Journalist Who Understands That Valuations Matter. Efficient Market Zealotry Is Rampant in the Journalism Community. I Just Love Your Valuation-Based Return Calculator."




    Rich Toscano, Pacific Capital Associates

  • "There Is Always An Unlimited Supply of Complainers Against Any Good Idea."






    Mr. Money Mustache Blogger

  • "Rob: This Has Been One of the Most Insightful and Helpful Comments I Think Anyone Has Ever Posted. Thank You for This Lesson and for Sharing Your Knowledge on This Subject!"




    My Money Design Blogger

  • "There Is An Extensive Literature About the Predictability of Long-Term Stock Returns. There Is an Extensive Literature About Short-Term Market Timing. My Question Is About Long-Term Market Timing. The Literature Seems Slim."



    Wade Pfau, Retirement Income Professor
    at The American College

  • "Your Ideas Are Sound."







    Rob Arnott, Financial Analysts Journal Editor

  • "For Years, the Investment Industry Has
    Tried to Scare Clients Into Staying Fully Invested
    in the Stock Market at All Times, No Matter
    How High Stocks Go. It's Hooey.
    They're Leaving Out More Than Half the Story."



    Brett Arends, The Wall Street Journal

  • "There Are Time-Periods Where Stocks Are a Terrible Addition to That Portfolio. Yet Inexplicably, We As Planners STILL tend to Suggest That It Is 'Risky' to Not Own Stocks When in Reality the Only Risk Is to Our Business."




    Michael Kitces, Maryland Financial Planner

  • "Valuation-Informed Indexing Provides More Wealth for 102 of 110 of the Rolling 30-Year Time-Periods While Buy-and-Hold Did Better in Eight of the Periods."






    Wade Pfau, Academic Researcher

  • "There Is a Growing Behavioral Economics Movement, But It So Far Has Had Limited Impact. Economists Are Not Fond of the Softness and Imprecision of Psychology. These Notions Are Considered Vaguely Unprofessional and Flaky."



    Robert Shiller, Yale University Economic Professor

  • "I Would Occasionally Get a Response Post
    Saying I Was 'the Best Since Rob Bennett
    Challenged Us to Think.'"




    A Popular Bogleheads Forum Poster Named "Retired at 48" Who Was Banned for Challenging Buy-and-Hold

  • "New Research by Rob Bennett Shows That
    Even a 4% Withdrawal Rate Could Cause Failure
    If You Start Retirement When
    Stock Market Valuations Are High.”




    Bernard Kelly, Consultant

  • "FuhGedDaBouDit!"




    William Bernstein, Author of
    The Four Pillars of Investing
    (When Asked Whether We Can Use the Old School Safe Withdrawal Rate Studies to Plan Our Retirements)

  • "This [The Stock-Return Predictor]
    Is a Very Handy Little Tool."






    Felix Salmon, Market Movers Blog

  • "A Much Simpler Way to Bring
    the Valuation Issue to Focus."
    (Referring to The Stock-Return Predictor)





    Karteek Narayanaswarmy, Blogger

  • "It's Informative, It's Based on Solid Data and It Provides Useful Results." (Referring to The Stock-Return Predictor)






    Political Calculations Blog

  • "Meet Three Couples Who Left the Corporate World to Do the Kinds of Work That Satisfied Them."






    Liz Pulliam Weston, MSN Money Columnist

  • "I Like Rob's Fresh Views and Tips
    on the Subject of Saving Money."






    The Digerati Life Blog

  • "A Very Solid Approach to Investing."







    Michael Harr, Founder of Walden Advisors

  • "Rob Bennett Has Been on a Tear With One Outstanding RobCast After Another."





    John Walter Russell, Owner of
    Early-Retirement-Planning-Insights.com Site

  • "It’s Time for a Different Way to Look at Investing, and Rob Is Onto Something Here."






    Kevin Mercadante, Owner of Out of Your Rut Blog

  • "My Afternoon Train Reading."
    (Referring to Rob's Article titled
    Why Buy-and-Hold Investing Can Never Work)





    Barry Ritholtz, Owner of The Big Picture Blog

  • "What Is It With Guys Named Rob?
    Longtime Index Agitator Rob Arnott Has Now
    Been Joined on These Pages by a
    Vanguard Diehard Agitator Named Rob Bennett."




    Jim Wiandt, IndexUniverse.com Publisher

  • "He Offers a Fresh New Perspective
    that Will Motivate You to Get on Track
    With a Solid Savings Plan."





    Lynn Terry, Click Newz Blog

  • "While Browsing at www.PassionSaving.com the Other Day, I Discovered an Article Featuring Ten Unconventional Money-Saving Tips. Each of These Offers a New Way to See Money."




    J.D. Roth, Owner of Get Rich Slowly Site

  • "Rob Has Ideas About Investing That Many Bloggers Find 'Interesting.' His Posts Are Often Controversial and Always Thought Provoking."





    Miranda Marquit, Planting Money Seeds Blog

  • "Is There a Way to Turn Saving Into Something Fun? If There Was, I Bet a Lot More of Us Would Do a Lot More Saving. I Found a Website Where This Basic Premise Is Explored in Great Depth."




    The Great WeiszGuy Blog

  • "I Have Much More Confidence in My Ability to Understand What Is Happening....I Thank You for Your Public Service, and, In Another Dimension, for the Personal Courage It Took to Make It Happen."




    Elizabeth, A PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "I Was Hooked on the Idea of [Passive] Index Indexing, But Something Inside Made Me Wonder "Too Good to Be True?" and "What's the Downside?" I Happened on to Your Site and Valuation-Informed Indexing Seems to Make Sense."



    Coleen, PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "Reads Like a Casual Conversation
    with a Likable Guy Who Wants Nothing More
    Than to Help Others Experience the Same Joy
    and Happiness He Has Found."




    Kara, Reader of Rob's Book

  • "Your 'Secrets' Are Exactly Like Magic Tricks: Once Revealed, They Look So Simple, Yet You Need Somebody to Show You How It Works."





    Kramerizio, Secrets of Retiring Early Reader

  • "Rob's Da Man! Never in the History of the Diehards Forum Has One Poster, Always Making Civil and Well Thought-Out Posts, Managed to Irritate So Many Without Anyone Being Able to Articulate a Good Reason As to Why."




    Mephistopheles, Bogleheads Forum Poster

  • "I’ve Been Surprised at How Controversial This Idea Is, but If Most People Are Buying and Holding, They Are Emotionally Invested in This Strategy."





    Jennifer Barry, Live Richly Blogger

  • "The Findings for [Long-Term] Market Timing Are So Robust That It Hardly Matters How We Do It."






    Wade Pfau, Asociate Professor of Economics

  • "The Elegant Simplicity of His Ideas Throughout Warms the Heart and Startles the Brain."






    Tom Gardner, Co-Founder of the Motley Fool Site

  • "Mr. Bennett Evidences an Unusual Skill....
    You'll Have to Buy a Copy....Extraordinary....
    A Massive Heap of Crap."




    John Greaney,
    Owner of the Retire Early Home Page Site

  • "By Reading All the Information on Your Website I Was Able to Develop a Part of Me I Didn't Know I Would Be Able to Become."





    Javier, PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "Innovative Financial Thinking."







    No Limits, Ladies Blog

  • "Knowledgeable."







    Hope to Prosper Blog

  • "Holy Toledo! This Is Great Stuff!"






    Bill Schultheis, Author of
    The New Coffeehouse Portfolio

  • ""He Offers Down-to-Earth But
    Nevertheless Eye-Opening Insights About
    the Why and the How of Early Retirement."





    Secrets of Retiring Early Reader

  • "Challenges Unfounded Assumptions."







    Bill Sholar, Founder of the Early Retirement Forum

  • "Seminal."






    John Greaney, Owner of Retire Early Home Page Site
    (Pre-May 13, 2002 Version)

  • "It’s Always Good to Read Something New That Challenges Your Way of Thinking."






    Invest It Wisely Blog

  • "Rob, Thanks for All of Your Articulate, Well-Written and Well-Reasoned Commentary."






    Elle, a Poster at the Joe Taxpayer Blog

  • "Although Rob and I Don’t See Eye to Eye
    on Every Detail, His Site Is a
    Valuable Resource for Research."





    Ken Faulkenberry, Portfolio Manager

  • "Thanks, Rob. I Love Seeing So Many
    Personal Finance Bloggers Who Offer Such
    High Quality Content on Their Own Sites Come Here
    to Weigh In [on Your Ideas]."




    Married With Debt Blogger

  • "A Ton of Tremendously Useful Content."







    Network Abundance Radio

  • "Your Enthusiasm Is Infectious."







    Ruth, a PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "I Woke Up at 4:00 am and Stared at the Wall for 20 Minutes....Thank You for Doing What You Do."






    Tasha, A PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "It Might Just Give You
    a New Way of Looking at Saving."






    Kevin Surbaugh, Owner of Debt Free 4Ever Blog

  • "'Staying Too Long in a Job Where You Don’t Feel Relevant Takes a Toll,' Said Rob Bennett, Who Worked for Years in a Well-Paying Corporate Communications Job Where He Didn’t Have Enough to Do."




    The New York Times

  • "You Have Started One of the Most Interesting
    and Stimulating Discussions This Board has Seen
    in a Long Time."





    Poster at Motley Fool Site

  • "A Respected Author and Commentator, Mr. Bennett has Dedicated Himself to Educating Average Investors to Avoid the Most Common Errors."





    Liberty Watch Site

  • "I've Gone from Shattered Dreams of Early Retirement to Glimpses of Hope to Reassurance from Quantitative Research."





    Patricia, A PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "Some of the Most Helpful and Insightful Market Discussions on the Web Take Place on These Pages."





    A Poster at the Safe WithDrawal Rate Research Group
    (Founded by Rob)

  • "Rob is the Only Person I Know (If Only via Message Board) Who has Completely Opted Out of Participation in the Stock Bubble. And You Know What? He Has Benefited Immensely from Doing So."




    Poster at Motley Fool

  • "Makes the Subject of Saving Edgy and Fresh."







    Maxine, A Reader of Rob's Book

  • "Rob Bennett, the Author of a Book Called Passion Saving, Thinks the Saving Problem Is Partly One of Packaging. So He Prefers to Couch it in the Language of Freedom."





    The Wall Street Journal

  • "This Tip Comes from Rob Bennett
    of the Finance Site PassionSaving.com."






    Lifehacker.com

  • "I LOVE This Article and
    Am Proud to be Publishing It!"




    Chuck Yanikoski, Executive Director of
    The Association of Integrative Financial
    and Life Planning

  • "Rob Bennett: Some People Disagree With Him, and He Rubs a Lot of People the Wrong Way. But He Has Interesting Ideas About Valuation-Informed Indexing, and He Delves Into a Lot of What Makes a Successful Investing Strategy."



    Miranda Marquit, Planting Money Seeds Blog

  • "Rob….Wow…..Your Response Sent Shivers
    Up the Ol’ Pilgrim Spine."






    Neal Frankie, Owner of the Wealth Pilgrim Blog

  • "I Have Counseled My Clients to Allocate a Percentage to Equities Based Upon Market Valuations....I Feel Like I've Found a Kindred Spirit. Fascinating Web Site."





    Tom Behlmer, Financial Planner

  • “A Simple Age-Based Asset Allocation Formula Is Not Appropriate, and Any Sensible Asset-Allocation Formula Should Combine Both Age/Investment Horizon and Market Valuation Levels.”




    RationalInvestor.biz

  • "Had a Guest Post This Week from Rob Bennett, Where He Discusses the Benefits of Value-Informed Indexing, Which I Find Very Intriguing."





    Sustainable Personal Finance Blog

  • "I Can Appreciate Rob's Comments.... Buy-and-Hold?
    For the Most Part, a Long Obsolete Theory."






    Neal Deutsch, Certified Financial Planner

  • "Utterly Brilliant!"







    Secrets of Retiring Early Reader

  • "Your Website Is So Enjoyable That It Is Keeping Me From My Research As I Am So Excited That I Have Found Such a Valuable Resource."





    Stuart, a PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "What We're Talking About Here Really
    ...Is Empowerment."






    Motley Fool Poster

  • "The Return Predictor Is Based upon the Principle that Over the Long Term, Stock Market Prices Will Reflect the Ten-Years Earnings Growth of the Underlying Companies. Prices Return to a Common Growth Pattern."




    Links.com Review of The Stock-Return Predictor

  • "Rob’s Arguments in Favor of Value Investing Actually Make a Lot of Sense In a Way That Should Make Any Rational Buy-and-Holder Uncomfortable."





    Pop Economics Blog

  • "What I Don't Understand Is How Rob Can Correspond in Such a Sweet and Polite Way
    -- Yet He Irritates Me to No End!"





    Financial WebRing Forum Poster

  • "You Go About It in a Manner that is Catastrophically Unproductive by Adding Missionary Zeal that Inflates Your Importance and Demeans Others. The Whole Idea That There is a New School of Safe Withdrawal Rates Reeks of Personal Aggrandizement."



    Scott Burns, Dallas Morning News

  • "Inflammatory."







    Morningstar.com Site Administrator

  • “What Warren Buffett Did Was Essentially Quite Close to What Rob Bennett Has Written. Buffett Has in Fact Been Cleverly Incorporating Long-Term Market Timing Based on Valuation of the Market in His Allocation of Money to Stocks.”



    Investor Notes Blog

  • "This Report Offers A Fresh Perspective That Is Rarely Found In Other Financial Literature."






    Secrets of Retiring Early Reader

  • "Rob Bennett Says That Market Timing Based on Aggregate P/E Ratios Can Be a Far More Effective Strategy. This Claim Is Consistent With Shiller's Analysis and I Can See How It Might Be So."




    Rajiv Sethi, Economics Professor at Columbia Univeristy

  • "Retiring Early Was A Concept I Did Not Entertain. I Was Going to Retire at 65 After Putting in 40 Years. Now I Am Glad To Say That All That Has Changed."





    Secrets of Retiring Early Reader

  • "In a Couple of Days, I Had
    Devoured the Entire Book."






    Reader of Rob's Book

  • "FIRECalc May Not Be the Last Word
    on Safe Withdrawal Rates."






    Jonathan Clements, Wall Street Journal

  • "It Seems to Me That Some on This Board Feel Threatened by the Arrival of Rob and His Ideas. They Feel a Threat to Their Perceived Elite Status."





    Motley Fool Poster

  • "You've Got to Say One Thing for Rob. He Has NEVER Lowered Himself to Ad Hominen Attacks -- Subliminal or Otherwise -- on Any Other Person on This Board. Not Once. Ever. At Least Give Him Credit for That."




    Motley Fool Poster

  • "I Have Never Seen Rob Show Incivility. No Matter What. Truly Amazing. Either He Is Really the Output of an Artificial Intelligence Program, or the Man's on the Way to Becoming a Saint!"




    Early Retirement Forum Poster

  • "You're the Politest Guy on the Internet.
    Such a Soft Touch!"






    Jonathan Lewis

  • "Props for Keeping Your Cool in the Married with Debt Article. Best of Luck Combating Buy-and-Hold."






    Money Mamba Blogger

  • "I Caught Up [at the Financial Bloggers Conference] With a Fairly Controversial Financial Blogger
    Named Rob Bennett, Who Struck Me As the
    Nicest Guy Around. There -- I Said It!"




    Digerati Life Blogger

  • "In Rob Bennett's Case, He Was Banned for No Known Listed Forum Policy. Except His Viewpoint Was Different From Other Bogleheads and [He Was Perceived As] a Threat."




    Investor Junkie Blog

  • "Mr. Bennett, You Are Spot on About Integrating Some Type of Valuation Filter to One's Stock Allocation. Astute Investors Have Incorporated Some Type of 'Valuation Timing' Into Their Investment Decisions Since the Beginning of Time."



    Poster at the Psy Fi Blog

  • "His Insights Into What Is Really Going On In The Stock Market Are Quite Compelling."






    Future Storm Blog

  • "It Was an Epiphany...Valuation-Informed Indexing Beats Buy-and-Hold Over Most Long-Term Holding Periods at Much Lower Volatility."





    Sam, a PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "I Am Intrigued By Your Ideas."







    Adam Butler, Portfolio Manager

  • "I Read the Book and I Loved It.
    The Philosophy Resonated with Me.
    I Am a Believer in Your Concept."





    Dr. Peter Weiss, Author of More Health, Less Care

  • "If Your Investment Ideas Can Do for Investing
    What Weston Price’s Ideas Did for Food,
    You’ve Got Our Attention."





    End Times Hoax Blog

  • "I Have Looked at His Website and Reviewed His Research and Find It Both Compelling and Completely Logical and Common-Sense-Based."





    Poster at Free Money Finance Blog

  • "If Investors Paid More Attention to Valuations, We Would Have Fewer Boom-and-Bust Cycles. The Investing Institutions Are Definitely Going to Avoid It Because It Affects Their Income."




    Hope to Prosper Blog

  • "The Calculators on Your Site Are Great Resources. It Amazes Me How So Many People Can Say 'Valuations Matter' Yet, in the Next Breath, They'll Say That We Should Ignore Valuations."




    John Marlowe, Logistics Analyst at Hess Corporation

  • "Must Read As Per My Viewpoint
    For All Value Seekers."






    Ajit Vakil, Value Investing Congress

  • "His Approach Is Both Mathematically Rigorous
    and Easy to Understand."






    Online Investing AI Blog

  • "There Is Nothing More Doubtful of Success Than a New System. The Initiator Has the Enmity of All Who Profit By Preservation of the Old Institution and Merely Lukewarm Defenders in Those Who Gain By the New One."




    Machiavelli

  • "Difficult Subjects Can Be Explained to the Most Slow-Witted Man If He Has Not Formed Any Idea of Them. But the Simplest Thing Cannot Be Made Clear to the Most Intelligent Man If He Believes He Knows Already What Is Laid Before Him."



    Tolstoy

  • "I Am Not Afraid. I Was Born to Do This."







    Joan of Arc

  • "I Certainly Have Seen the Academic Profession Squelching Unfashionable ideas and Have Often Been on the Wrong Side of It. Kuhn Shows How Most Pathbreaking Scientific Ideas Are Rejected at First, Usually for Decades.”




    Carol Osler, Brandeis International Business School

  • "First They Ignore You, Then They Ridicule You, Then They Fight You, Then You Win."






    Ghandi

  • "We Cannot Assume the Existence of Predictability Just Because There Are No Studies That Fully Reject It."






    Valeriy Zakamulin, Economics Professor

  • "I Am Also Extremely Grateful to Rob Bennett for Motivating This Topic and Contributing His Experience and Encouragement."





    Wade Pfau, Academic Researcher

  • "Rob Bennett Was an Early Pioneer in 3rd Generation Modeling by Advocating (Through Various Online Forums) that Withdrawal Rates Must Be Adjusted for Market Valuations Consistent with Research by Campbell and Shiller."



    Todd Tresidder, Financial Mentor Blog

  • "I Am Fascinated by the Growing Body of Research that Revolves Around the P/E10 Ratio by Robert Shiller, Doug Short, Wade Pfau, Michael Kitces, John Hussman, Crestmont Research, Jim Otar, Mike Philbrick, Adam Butler & Rob Bennett."



    Kay Conheady in Advisor Perspectives

  • "Rob Is an Enigma in the Personal Finance World. He Has Interesting Theories on Investing Based on Market Valuations. But He Weaves a Tale Which Makes the Stories of Alexander Litvinenko & Gareth Williams Seem Tame by Comparison."



    Don't Quit Your Day Job Blog

  • "In Recent Years, the 4 Percent Rule
    Has Been Thrown Into Doubt."






    The Wall Street Journal

  • "A Safe Withdrawal Rate Is Very Dependent
    on the Valuation of the Stockmarket
    at the Retirement Date."





    Economist Magazine

  • "I Have Read Everything I Can About Valuation-Informed Indexing. Buy-and-Hold Is Extremely Problematic. I Respect the Passion, Hard Work and Research That You Have Put Into This Very Important Issue. Your Work Has Huge Value."



    Carl Richards, Owner of Clearwater Asset Management

  • "The World of Personal Finance Blogging Needs More Rob Bennetts. He’s Passionate. He’s Intelligent. He’s Writing Things That Go Against the Grain."





    Financial Uproar Blog

  • "Beyond Awesome."







    Larry, a PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "The Wealth Management Industry Seems Intent on Containing This Discussion for Fear Clients Might Discover that the Emperor Has No Clothes."





    Adam Butler, Portfolio Manager

  • "Recommended Reading."







    Jesse's Cafe Americain Blog

  • “All Who Are Still Holding Equities at Present Levels Because Their Financial Adviser Insists that Timing Market Cycles Is Impossible to Do -- Read This!"





    Juggling Dynamite Blog

  • "The Fact that Aggressive and Short-Term Market Timing Was Unproductive Did Not Mean That There Were Never Times When It Would Be Wealth-Maximizing to Get Out of the Market."



    Scott Burris,Director of the Center for
    Health Law, Policy and Practice

  • "The Amount of Return You Can Expect From a Diversified Equity Portfolio Is Inversely Correlated to the Market Valuation at the Start of the Holding Period. It Is One of the Most Robust Statistical Relationships in Modern Finance."




    Todd Tresidder, Financial Mentor Blog

  • "Why Would Your Job Be Jeopardized
    By Such a Sensible Claim?"





    Marcelle Chauvet, Econmics Professor
    at University of California

  • "Received Worrisome E-Mail from Rob Bennett. Warns of Risk with Buy-and-Hold Investing
    -- I Have No Clue."





    Vivek Wadhaw, Business Week Columnist

  • "As Attorney, Tax Expert and Financial Writer Rob Bennett Told Us, the Problem Is That, By the Time Shiller Published His Research, Many Big Names Had Already Endorsed Buy-and-Hold."




    ZeroHedge.com

  • "This Seems to Me to Be a Fundamental Challenge to Some of the Most Basic Tenets of the Boglehead Paradigm."






    Bogleheads Forum Poster

  • "You Want to be Very, Very Wary of Anything Connected with Rob Bennett, the Most Infamous Troll in the History of Investing Forums on the Internet."





    Alex Fract, Owner of Bogleheads Forum

  • “I’ve Had My Fill of Those Long-Winded Posts that Include Distortions, Unsubstantiated Claims, Misquotes and Comments Taken Out of Context.”




    Mel Lindauer, Co-Author of
    The Bogleheads Guide to Investing

  • "Haven't You Noticed Yet That NO ONE Discusses Your Ideas, NO ONE Mentions Your Name, NO ONE Goes To Your Web Site."





    One of the Greaney Goons

  • "I've Had Similar Experiences. I Know of Two Young Professors Who Wanted to Do Research on Fundamental Index and Reported to Me That Their Colleagues Advised Them That This Line of Research Could Derail Their Career Prospects."



    Rob Arnott, Financial Analysts Journal Editor

  • "As with Drug Studies Funded by Drug Companies, It Would Be Churlish to Suppose that the Chicago School of Business Was in the Bag. But It Would Also Be Idealistic to Assume That There Was No Funding Bias at All."




    Bogleheads Poster

  • "This Sort of Intimidation Is Not Acceptable. The Cigarette and Pharmaceutical Industries Found Research Supporting Their Products By Funding It. But That Was Big Money Supporting Outcomes, Not Dissuading Others."




    Lyn Graham, 25-Year CPA

  • "Financial Economists Gave Little Warning to the Public About the Fragility of Their Models. There Is No Ethical Code for Professional Economic Scientists. There Should Be One."



    Paper Titled The Financial Crisis and
    the Systemic Failure of Academic Economics

  • "The Situation [Referring to the Intimidation Tactics Used to Silence Academic Researcher Wade Pfau's Reporting of the Dangers of Buy-and-Hold Investing Strategies] Seems Well Below Any Professional and Academic Acceptable Standards."



    Albert Sanchez Graells, Law Lecturer

  • Many Academics Can Become Quite Strident When Their Views Are Challenged. Academia Is Often Subject to Self-Serving Bias That Obliterates Ethical Bounds."





    Ted Sichelman, Law Professor

  • "I Don't Like Too Much the Conspiracy Idea. I Am Not Pressured By Anyone in My Research."






    Roberto Reno, Economics Professor

  • "This Is What Investing Should Be -- Calculated, Deliberate, Confident, Informed and Simple."






    Aaron Friday, Owner of Aaron's Blob Blog

  • "It Is Obvious that Rob, in Attempting to Identify New Safe Withdrawal Rate Strategies...Is Goring Your Ox. If Rob Improves on [the] Safe Withdrawal Rate Methodology, the Implication Is Clear: You Are All, Metaphorically, Out of Business."



    Bogleheads Poster

  • "I Applaud His Effort to Inject Another Piece of Objectivity Into a Very Complex, Highly Subjective Topic -- Making Money in the Market."





    Bogleheads Poster

  • "Naturally, I Am Finding That Valuation-Informed Indexing Can Allow You to Reach a Wealth Target With a Lower Saving Rate and to Use a Higher Withdrawal Rate in Retirement Than You Could With a Fixed Allocation."



    Wade Pfau, Professor of Retirement Income
    at The American College

  • "A Careful Examination of Past Returns Can Establish Some Probabilities About the Prospective Parameters of Return, Offering Intelligent Investors a Basis for Rational Expectations About Future Returns."




    Jack Bogle, Founder of Vanguard Funds

  • "The Ability to Estimate the Long-Term Future Returns of the Major Asset Classes Is Perhaps the Most Important Investment Skill That An Indivisual Can Possess."




    William Bernstein, Author of The Four Pillars of Investing

  • "The Stock Market Resembles Roulette. In Both Cases, the Accuracy of Sensible Forecasts Rises Over Time."






    Andrew Smithers, Co-Author of Valuing Wall Street

  • "Returns Are for the Most Part a Matter of Simple Arithmetic...Much of Our Industry Seems Fearful of Basic Arithmetic of This Sort."





    Rob Arnott, Financial Analysts Journal Editor

  • "How Can It Be That One-Year Returns Are So Apparantly Random and Yet Ten-Year Returns Are Mostly Forecastable? In Looking at One-Year Returns, One Sees a Lot of Noise. But Over Longer Time Intervals the Noise Effectively Averages Out and Is Less Important."




    Yale Economics Professor Robert Shiller

  • "The Notion That Rich Valuations Will Not Be Followed By Sub-Par Long-Term Returns Is a Speculative Idea That Runs Counter to All Historical Evidence. It Is an Iron Law of Finance That Valuations Drive Long-Term Returns."




    John Hussman

  • "It's January and the Temperature Is Below Freezing. If You Asked Me Whether It Will be Warmer or Cooler Next Tuesday, I Would Be Unable to Say. However, If You Asked Me What Temperature to Expect on April 9, I Could Predict "Warmer Than Today" and Almost Surely Be Right."



    Michael Alexanfer, Author of Stock Cycles

  • "If the Response Is "Who Knew?", It Won't Be Much Comfort for Retirees in the Employment Line at Wal-Mart. This is Especially True Since a Rational Understanding of History and the Drivers of Longer-Term Stock Returns Can Help Retirees To Avoid That Surprise."




    Ed Easterling, Author of Unexpected Returns

  • "New of the Demise of the Random Walk Has Only Very Slowly Spread, In Part Because Its Overthrow Came as a Shock. If the Random Walk Hypothesis Were Correct, the Most Likely Return Would Be the Historic Average Return. The Evidence, However, Is Strongly Against This."



    Andrew Smithers, Co-Author of Valuing Wall Street

  • "I Don't Think We Can Debate the Merits of This Type of Forecasting [Referring to the Numbers Generated by The Stock-Return Predictor] Unless We Believe 'This Time It's Different.'"



    Poster at Bogleheads Forum
    (Before the Ban on Honest Posting Was Adopted There)

  • "I've Seen Absolutely Nothing From You That I Can Use in a Tangible Fashion to Formulate an Investment Plan. Your Ideas Are So Mushy That It's a Complete Waste of Time to Even Consider Them."




    Bogleheads Forum Poster

  • "Do You Really Think Your Tool
    [The Stock-Return Predictor]
    Is 'Wiser' Than the Market?
    If It Was That Easy,
    Everybody Would Be Doing It."



    Bogleheads Forum Poster

  • "The Expected Return of Stocks [As Reported By The Stock-Return Predictor] Needs To Be At Least the Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) Rate for Stock Investing To Make Sense."




    Bogleheads Forum Poster

  • "I Have Used Valuations to Adjust My Asset Allocation For Many Years With Very Favorable Results."





    Poster at Bogleheads Forum
    (Prior to the Ban on Honest Posting)

  • "I Don't Care If You Do or Don't Believe That the Market Will Behave Similarly in the Future As It Has in the Past. Either Way, This [The Stock-Return Predictor] Is an Excellent Way to Understand What the Market Has Done In the Past."


    Poster at Bogleheads Forum
    [Prior to the Ban on Honest Posting]

  • "My Role Is To Give People Who Don't Like What the Historical Stock-Return Data Says About the Effect of Valuations on Long-Term Returns Somebody To Yell At On Internet Discussion Boards."



    Rob Bennett at Bogleheads Forum
    (Prior to the Ban on Honest Posting)

  • "It Really Is a Shame and Indefensible That So Many Feel the Need to Jump Into It With No Interest of Posting on the Topic But Just to Disrupt. Are You That Insecure? Some on the Forum Have an Interest in This Topic. If You Don't, Stay Out!"



    Poster at Bogleheads Forum
    [Prior to the Ban on Honest Posting]

  • "Irrational Behavior Does Follow Patterns. But How Many Experts in Behavioral Finance Believe That Such Knowledge Can Be Used to Predict Markets? Basically, None. Your Model Cannot Attain the Level of Predictive Value You Claim."



    Poster at Bogleheads Forum
    [Prior to the Ban on Honest Posting]

  • "The Safe Withdrawal Rate Studies Are Based on History. This [The Retirement Risk Evaluator] Shows, Based on the Same History, What the Probabilities Are for the Future at Various Starting Points. If the First Has Value, Then Surely This Does Too."



    Poster at Bogleheads Forum

  • "There Are Hundreds of People Who Contributed to This. This Calculator [The Stock-Return Predictor] Demonstrates in a Compelling Way the Power of This New Internet Discussion-Board Communications Medium."




    Rob Bennett at the Bogleheads Forum
    (Prior to the Ban on Honest Posting)

  • "A P/E10 of'26' Is Bad. Now Look at the 30-Year Return Predicted by the Calculator -- 5.4 Percent Real. That's Not Bad. There Are All Sorts of Strategic Implications That Follow From Understanding That Stocks Provide Different Sorts of Returns Over Different Sorts of Time-Periods."




    Rob Bennett

  • "I Would Never Invest in Anything Without Having Any Idea What the Expected Return Is. For Instance, I Would Not Walk Into a Bank And Say "I'll Take One Certificate of Deposit, Please" WIthout Asking What Rate They Are Offering."



    Poster at Bogleheads Forum
    [Prior to the Ban on Honest Posting]

  • "I've Seen Things Said on Investing Boards That I Have Never Heard Said in Discussions of Any Non-Investing Topic. The Question of Whether Valuations Affect Long-Term Returns Is a Topic That Causes People More Emotional Angst Than Does Abortion or Impeachment Proceedings or the War in Iraq."



    Rob Bennett at the Bogleheads Forum

  • "It's Not Possible For Those Who Have Come to Believe That Stocks Are Always Best to Accept that Valuations Matter. The Two Beliefs Are Mutually Exclusive. If Valuations Matter, There Is Obviously Some Valuation Level At Which Stocks Are Not Best. The Two Paradigms Cannot Be Reconciled."


    Rob Bennett

  • "The Great Safe Withdrawal Rate Is Over. Rob Bennett Has Won.The Technical Evidence Supporting This Assertion Is Rock Solid."




    John Walter Russell,
    Owner of the Early Retirement Planning Insights Site
    [This Statement Was Put Forward on August 3, 2003.]

  • "I Am Afraid that the Emperor SWR [for "Safe Withdrawal Rate"] Has No Clothes."





    A Poster at the Early Retirement Forum
    [This Statement Was Put Forward on October 8, 2003.]

  • "I Cite You and John Walter Russell in My Paper as the Earliest and Strongest Advocates of This Approach [New School Safe Withdrawal Rate Research]."




    Wade Pfau, Professor of Retirement Income
    at The American College

  • "Dear Rob -- I Just Became Aware of Your Past Research in September. Since Then, I've Read Archives From Many Discussion Boards and Websites, and I Always Find Your Writing to Be Very Interesting and Intriguing."



    Wade Pfau, Professor of Retirement Income
    at The American College

  • "I Think Rob Bennett Did Provide An Important Contribution in Terms of Describing a Way for P/E10 to Guide Asset Allocation for Long-Term Conservative Investors. I Also Think He Was Right on the Issue of Safe Withdrawal Rates."


    Wade Pfau, Professor of Retirement Income
    at The American College

  • "What Studies Show This [That Long-Term Timing Doesn't Work]? In Particular, Are There Some Academic Studies That I Haven't Found Yet? That's All I Want to Know."




    Academic Researcher Wade Pfau at the Bogleheads Forum After His Own Search of the Literature Turned Up Not a Single Such Study

  • "Because the Precise Timing of This Mean Reversion Is Not Known in Advance, Expecting the Result to Happen in the Short-Term Will Not Be Possible. But Long-Term Investors Who Can Be Patient Can Wait for This Mean Reversion and Will Eventually Come Out Ahead."




    Academic Researcher Wade Pfau

  • "Your Work Is at Odds with the Ethos of the Board -- Here the Theme is John Bogle's Philosophy, Which Eschews Market Timing. This Board Came Into Existence to ESCAPE One Individual, the Very Individual With Whom You Have Openly Aligned Yourself."




    A Lindaurhead (to Researcher Wade Pfau)

  • "The Problem With Long-Term Market Timing Is That It Takes Too Long to Find Out If You Are Right or Wrong."






    A Poster at the Bogleheads Forum

  • "Why Is It Such an Odious Violation of the Tenets of Bogleheadism to Explore Whether Someone Who Has Enough Patience Might Be Able to Benefit from the Transitory Nature of Speculative Returns (the Idea That the P/E Ratio Eventually Ends Up Where It Started)?"




    A Poster at the Bogleheads Forum

  • "Let Me Explain Why I Posted About This Here. Valuation-Informed Indexing Has Had Critics for Years. But Until Norbert Did It In 2008, Nobody Seemed to Have Provided a Serious Investigation of It. I Couldn't Understand Why. That Bothered Me."



    Researcher Wade Pfau at the Bogleheads Forum
    (Prior to the Ban on Honest Posting)

  • "If You Really Don't Like Market Timing in Any and All Forms, You May Not See Any Point in an Empirical Investigation. You View Me as One of a Long Line of Hucksters Trying to Sell You Some Snake Oil. I Don't Want to Be Such a Person."



    Researcher Wade Pfau at the Bogleheads Forum
    (Prior to the Ban on Honest Posting)

  • "Having a Completely Ineleastic Demand for Equities Is a Bit Bonkers. No One Acts That Way with Life's Other Important Commodities. Campbell Advocates a Linear Valuations-Based Strategy so That You Wouldn't Be Making Big Changes. This Would Be Like Rebalancing But More Flexible."



    A Poster at the Bogleheads Forum

  • "The Whole Idea of Valuation-Informed Indexing Belongs to You. Do You Mind if I call the Paper 'Valuation-Informed Indexing'? I Would Give You Credit. I Have Been Toying With the Idea of Sending the Paper to the Journal of Finance, Which Is the Most Prestigious Journal in Academic Finance."


    Academic Researcher Wade Pfau, in an E-Mail to Rob

  • "I Definitely Need to Cite You as the Founder of Valuation-Informed Indexing, As I Have Not Found Anyone Else Who Can Lay Claim to That. Shiller Pointed Out the Predictive Power of P/E10 But Never Discussed How to Incorporate It Into Asset Allocation, As Far As I Know."




    Academic Researcher Wade Pfau

  • "I Tested a Wide Variety of Assumptions About Asset Allocation, Valuation-Based Decision Rules, Whether the Period Is 10, 20, 30 or 40 Years, and Lump-Sum vs. Dollar-Cost Averaging To Show That the Results Are Quite Robust to Changes In Any of These Assumptions."




    Academic Researcher Wade Pfau

  • "Yes, Virginia, Valuation-Informed Indexing Works!"




    Academic Researcher Wade Pfau
    (Wade Holds a Ph.D. in Economics from Princeton.)
    (The Buy-and-Hold Mafia Threatened to Get Wade Fired From His Job When He Reported His Findings.)

  • "I Wrote Up the Programs to Test Your Valuation-Informed Indexing Strategies Against Buy-and-Hold and I Am Quite Excited. You Say in the RobCast That VII Should Beat Buy-and-Hold About 90 Percent of the Time. I Am Getting Results That Support This."




    Academic Researcher Wade Pfau

  • "Never Underestimate the Power of a Dominant Academic Idea to Choke Off Competing Ideas, and Never Underestimate the Unwillingness of Academics to Change Their Views in the Face of Evidence. They Have Decades of Their Research and Academic Standing to Defend."




    Jeremy Grantham

  • "There's So Much That's False and Nutty
    in Modern Investing Practice."






    Warren Buffett

  • "Following Conventional Wisdom Has Led a Generation of Investors Down the Road to Ruin."






    Steve Hanke

  • "It Is Sad That the Idea That Price Doesn't Matter...Should Ever Have Been Seriously Considered".






    Andrew Smithers, Co-Author of Valuing Wall Street

  • "The Conventional Wisdom of Modern Investing Is Largely Myth and Urban Legend."





    Rob Arnott, Former Editor of
    Fianncial Analysts Journal

  • "Economics Is a Dog's Breakfast of Theoretical Ideas and Alleged Causal Relationships That Are At All Times Unproven and In Dispute."





    Terence Corcoran, Editor of National Post

  • "Since They Did Not Diagnose the Disease, There Is Little Popular Confidence That They Know the Cure. What If Economics Is, Actually, At the Same Level as Medicine Was When Doctors Still Believed in the Application of Leeches?"




    Gideon Rachman, Financial Times

  • "One of the Most Remarkable Errors
    in the History of Economics."



    Yale Economics Professor Robert Shiller
    (Referring to the Logical Leap from the Finding That Short-Term Price Changes Are Unpredictable to the Conclusion That the Market Sets Prices Properly)

  • "Everything Has Fallen Apart."






    Peter Bernstein, Author of Against the Gods
    (Referring to Old Views About How Markets Work)

  • "We Wonder Why Funds and Banks, Full of the Best and Brightest, Have Made Such a Mess of Things. Part of the Reason Is That We Have Taught Economic Nonsense to Two Generations of Students."




    John Mauldin, Thoughts From the Frontline

  • "Perhaps Most Scandalously, the Theory [Behind Buy-and-Hold] Remained Received Wisdom Long After Empirical and Theoretical Arguments Had Demolished It Within the Academic Community."




    John Authers, Financial Times

  • "I Love the Humans Dearly (the Title of the Book I Am Writing Is Investing for Humans: How to Get What Works on Paper to Work in Real Life) But They Can Be a Trial at Times. Hey! Helping the Humans Learn What It Takes to Invest Effectively Is Not All That Different From Being Married!



    Rob Bennett

  • "We Are Going to See Hearts Melt Following the Next Crash. I Will Be Working Side-By-Side With All of My Many Buy-and-Hold Friends to Rebuild Our Broken Economy."





    Rob Bennett

  • "Wow, I Did Not Realize You Had Achieved This Much Success and Had Many Devoted Believers/Followers. That’s Great, Then Ignore the Opposition. It Is Great to Have Opposition: That Means You Are Doing Something Right."




    Robert Savickas, Associate Finance Professor
    at George Washington University

  • "I Do NOT Believe I Know It All. I Believe That Shiller Discovered Something Very Important and It Appalls Me That More People Are Not Exploring the Implications of His Findings. My Aim Is To Launch a National Debate."




    Rob Bennett

  • "I Can See How Many Readers Would Be Put Off by the Somewhat Sensational/Scandalist Tone and Would Not Persevere to Read, Thinking You Are Losing Your Mind."




    Robert Savickas, Associate Finance Professor
    at George Washington University

  • "I LOVE Everything About Buy-and-Hold Other Than the Failure to Encourage Investors to Take Price Into Consideration When Setting Their Stock Allocations. That's a Mistake That Was Made Because Shiller’s Research Was Not Available at the Time The Strategy Was Being Developed."



    Rob Bennett

  • "Valuation-Informed Indexing Sounds Like a Real Thing. If It Is and I Can Thoroughly Understand It, Then It Will End Up In My Classrooms and in My Students' Minds (Of Course, With References to You and Wade)."




    Robert Savickas, Associate Finance Professor
    at George Washington University

  • "I Can Confirm Wade Pfau's Experience. Whenever I Send My Papers to the Financial Analysts Journal or Similar Traditional Journals, I Get Rejected."





    Joachim Klement, CIO at Wellershoff & Partners

  • "As a Fan of Thomas Kuhn's The Structure of Scientific Revolutions, I Know That Progress Can Be Frustratingly Slow and What Is Typically Needed Is Either a Crisis or the Ascent of a New Generation of Scientists Who Did Not Build Their Careers on the Old Models and Theories."




    Joachim Klement, CIO at Wellershoff & Partners

  • "We Trace the Deeper Roots [of the Financial Crisis] to the Economics' Profession's Insistence on Constructing Models That, By Design, Disregard the Key Elements Driving Outcomes in Real World Markets."




    Knowledge@Wharton

  • "Rob Gets Himself So Worked Up Over What Someone Else Is Doing With Their Own Money and Not Bothering Rob in the Least. As Long As They Aren't Knocking on Your Basement Door, What Do You Care? They Are Happy and Content. Leave Well Enough Alone and Focus on Your Own Account."


    Dab, One of the Greaney Goons

  • "I've Been on Forum Since the BBS Days and I Think Rob is Special. He Could Be an Internet Meme If He Put Some Effort Into It. Someday, He Will Realize That the Only Thing He's Good At Is Being an Epic Loser. He Just Needs to Embrace That Idea and Run With It. Watch Out, LOLCats, Here Comes Pathetic Guy!"


    Wabmaster, One of the Greaney Goons

  • "Your Lies Are Not Even in the Realm of the Possible, Much Less Actually Credible, Much Less Actually True."






    Drip Guy, One of the Greaney Goons

  • "I'm Your Friend. I Am Not a Boil on Your Ass."






    Rob Bennett, In a Response Comment
    to One of the Greaney Goons

  • "You Guys [the Greaney Goons] Are the Same Jokers Who Have Done This Before, Sparring with Rob Over Nonsensical Issues On This Site and Others, Leveling Personal Attacks, and You Don't Even Use Real Names! Rob Is Entitled to His Opinion, But the Fact That You Challenge Every Jot and Tittle of What He Says Makes It Clear You Have An Unholy Agenda. Please Take It Elsehwere."

    Kevin Mercadante,
    Owner of the Out of Your Rut Site

  • "Rob, Take This As Friendly Advice. You're a Smart and Articulate Guy and You Could Be Making Valuable Contributions to This Discussion. I've Dealt with the Mentally Ill Before and I've Found That They Sometimes Can Be Reasonable If Gently Redirected."



    Goon Poster

  • "Always Remember Others May Hate You, But Those Who Hate You Don't Win Unless You Hate Them, and Then You Destroy Yourself."





    Richard Nixon

  • "I’m a Numbers Guy. And I Believe I Understand Rob’s Thesis, that Future Returns, Over the Next Decade, Have a Tight Inverse Correlation to the PE10 for the Starting Point. Remember, Correlation Doesn’t Need to be 100%, Only That There’s a Bell Curve of Potential Outcomes that Shift Meaningfully Based on the Input."


    Owner of Joe Taxpayer Blog

  • "What a Difference a Threat to Get the Father of Two Small Children Fired From His Job Has on an Investing Discussion, Eh? Long Live Buy-and-Hold! It’s Science! With a Marketing Twist!"




    Rob, Referring to the Wade Pfau Matter

  • "I Respect Rob and His Analysis. He's Bright, Energetic and Passionate. [The Goon Stuff] Is Really Nonsense. I Enjoy a Thought-Provoking Conversation With People I Respect."





    Owner of Joe Taxpayer Blog

  • "The Fact that Shiller is a Proponent of the Approach Takes it from a Fringe View to Mainstream, in my Opinion."






    Owner of Joe Taxpayer Blog

  • "I Have had Academic Researchers Tell Me That They Dream of the Day When They Will be Able to do Honest Research Once Again. I Have had Investment Advisors Tell me That They Dream of the Day When They Will be Able to Give Honest Investing Advice Again."



    Rob Bennett

  • "Let’s Call a Spade a Spade, Shall We? Wade Pfau Stole Your Research and Put His Name on it, Throwing You Just a Tiny Crumb of Acknowledgement to Ward Off a Lawsuit. He’s Profiting Handsomely By His Theft, Leading a Charmed Life, Widely Published, Widely Respected. While Rob Bennett Continues to Toil in Total Obscurity. It’s So Incredibly Unfair, I Think If It Happened to Me, It Could Actually Drive Me Insane."

    One of the Greaney Goons

  • About Us
    • Rob’s Bio
    • Rob’s Bio
    • Contact Rob
    • Rob’s Book
    • Don’t Sue Me!
  • Blog
  • Passion Saving
    • 20 Dangerous Money Myths — They Think We’re Stupid!
    • 10 Unconventional Money Saving Tips
    • Why Your Money or Your Life Rocked the World
    • This Book Saves Marriages — The Complete Tightwad Gazette
    • How to Start Saving Money
  • Valuation-Informed Indexing
    • Why Buy-and-Hold Investing Can Never Work
    • About Valuation-Informed Indexing
    • The Stock-Return Predictor
    • The Retirement Risk Evaluator
    • The Investor’s Scenario Surfer
    • The Investment Strategy Tester
    • The Returns Sequence Reality Checker
    • Nine Valuation-Informed-Indexing Portfolio Allocation Strategies
  • The Buy-and-Hold Crisis
    • Academic Researcher Silenced by Threats to Get Him Fired From His Job After Showing Dangers of Buy-and-Hold Investing Strategies
    • Academic Researcher Silenced By Threats to Get Him Fired From His Job After Showing Dangers of Buy-and-Hold Investing Strategies — Teaser Version
    • Corruption in the Investing Advice Field — The Wade Pfau Story
    • The Bennett/Pfau Research Showing Middle-Class Investors How to Reduce the Risk of Stock Investing by 70 Percent
    • Buy-and-Hold Caused the Economic Crisis
    • The True Cause of the Current Financial Crisis — Questions and Answers
    • Investing Discussion Boards Ban Honest Posting on Valuations
    • Wall Street Journal Calls Buy-and-Hold a “Myth,” Endorses Valuation-Informed Indexing

Rob Bennett’s Responses to Academic Researcher Wade Pfau: #15 — No Apologies?

August 2, 2012 by Rob

Where are the apologies?

I’ve generated hundreds of important investing insights in my podcasts and weekly columns and articles and discussion-board comments of the past 10 years. The Buy-and-Hold Machine is not happy to see me telling people about those insights and yet has not been able to find any flaws in the academic research that supports them. Let’s say that the insights are all baloney. Let’s say they are all wrongheaded. All but one. The first one cannot be wrongheaded because even The Buy-and-Hold Machine now (tens years later) agrees that that one is on point. The Old School safe-withdrawal-rate studies got the numbers that millions of middle-class people used to plan their retirements wildly wrong. There’s no argument anymore than I am off base re that one. We have achieved a consensus at least re that one.

So where are the apologies?

I am owed an apology re that one even if every other insight I have generated is baloney, no? It was no small insight. One of the primary reasons why people invest in stocks is to finance their retirements. The Old School studies didn’t get the retirement numbers a little wrong, they got them wildly wrong. A failed retirement is a serious life setback. I helped everyone out — or at least I tried to help everyone out — when I dared (it took courage) to step forward and tell the truth about safe withdrawal rates. I helped — or tried to help — the retirees who would have suffered failed retirements if I didn’t work up the courage to take on The Machine (the retirees may suffer failed retirements all the same because of the ten-year cover-up but I also spoke out in the strongest possible terms against the cover-up). And I helped the “experts” in this field who were leading the cover-up. They have incurred hundreds of billions of dollars in potential legal liabilities. I did all I could to help them avoid those liabilities. No?

So where are the apologies?

Where are the expressions of gratitude? John Bogle has not sent me an e-mail saying “Thanks, man!” Huh? What’s the problem here?

Where are the offers to help me spread my ideas far and wide?

Where are the links to my web site?

Where are the articles demanding that the Goons drop their Campaign of Terror against our board and blog communities, including a number of communities that I built pretty much with my bare hands?

Is there a problem?

There is a problem.

We are ashamed.

All of us.

We need to get over it.

Do you know why the Buy-and-Holders act like they know it all? A number of people who agree with my general take have said that it is because there is money in it. What industry wouldn’t want people to believe that the product it offers for sale is worth buying at any price imaginable? That’s what Buy-and-Hold says, is it not? When the stock-selling experts tell us not to time the market, what they are really saying is not to take price into consideration when buying stocks. Just buy stocks! Lots of them! Price be darned! As Church Lady might observe, “How convenient!”

I certainly agree that money-making comes into play here. I do NOT believe that this is the primary problem, however. I think that some of my friends may at times fall into the trap of being a little too cynical.

Say that we were to open up every internet board and blog to the discussion of Valuation-Informed Indexing. Say that the idea spread like wildfire. Say that one year from now 90 percent of investors were Valuation-Informed Indexers. Would the profits of The Stock-Selling Industry go up or down?

They would go up. Investors who understand how stock investing works have confidence in their financial futures. People who have confidence in their financial futures buy stuff. If most investors became Valuation-Informed Indexers, the fears that keeping consumers from spending and extending and worsening our economic crisis would be overcome. We would see an economic boom. And investors who understand how stock investing works buy more stocks than investors who are intimidated by the subject. Valuation-Informed Indexing is common-sense investing. If the experts got behind the idea, more people than ever before would buy stocks. The transition from Buy-and-Hold to Valuation-Informed Indexing would be a boon for millions of middle-class investors and for the industry that advises them both.

So this is not really a money thing. Those who participated in the ten-year cover-up of the errors in the Old School SWR studies are worried about lawsuits. To that extent it’s a money thing. But the opposition to honest posting came long before lawsuits were a big concern. The core problem here is something different. If we are going to overcome this mysterious force that is holding us back from an economic boom and that is threatening to pull us into the Second Great Depression, we need to develop a true understanding of what it is.

What is really at the core of all this craziness?

On the surface, it appears to be arrogance. The Buy-and-Holders don’t admit mistakes. They don’t ever, ever, ever, ever, ever admit mistakes.

But what’s behind the arrogance? Why are they like this?

Say that you were a doctor and that you thought that cutting someone open might help them with their problem but you were not sure. What would you do? A lot of us would not be able to cut unless we were sure. So we would try to convince ourselves that we were sure. Then, if there were a bad result and someone questioned our decision, we would become angry and defensive. The person questioning the choice is giving voice to our own doubts. So their words really hurt. And it becomes important to us to silence that voice.

That’s why the Buy-and-Holders hate me. It’s not that I am saying something they don’t think makes sense. If they thought that what I said doesn’t make sense, it wouldn’t bother them. They would laugh it off. They wonder themselves if what I am saying is right and, when I give voice to their doubts, it makes them go crazy. The want me to shut up. And I won’t. Not because I want to hurt them. Because I believe that they are on the wrong track and that deep in their hearts they want to be on the right track. So I am doing for them what they would want me to do for them if they were able to think straight about these issues.

Why can’t the doctor acknowledge that he really doesn’t know if cutting is a good idea or not? Because cutting is a big deal. No one wants to be cut for no good reason. You can’t just go ahead and cut unless you are sure. Unfortunately, the humans are born ignorant. We don’t it all. Sometimes we are guessing. That’s sometimes so even when we are making decisions as important as whether to cut another human body or not.

If a perfect world, the investing experts could continue doing studies until they learned everything there is to know and only then offer any advice to investors. We don’t live in an ideal world. In the world in which we live in people need investing advice TODAY. We don’t have perfect information today. So we might mess up. But we cannot take a pass. We have to recommend something.

The Buy-and-Holders did the best they could given the limited extent of their knowledge when they designed the Buy-and-Hold Model. But, since the matter they were advising people on (what to do with their retirement money) was so important, they acted like they were a lot more confident than they were. And, because they cannot stand the thought of having caused the great human misery they caused if they really are wrong (as they now suspect), they become highly defensive when challenged. They cannot admit they were wrong. They feel that their lives will have been wasted if they admit that.

I don’t say that the investing experts did nothing wrong. What I say is that we all did wrong too. We should have made clear to them that we don’t expect them to have all the answers. We never should have started calling John Bogle “Saint Jack.” That put him in a terrible spot. That made it that much harder for him to acknowledge his mistakes. He feels that he needs to live up to the exalted view we have of him. We would have been better friends if we had made it a practice to ask hard questions of him, to always challenge him to learn more and to sharper his ideas over time.

So it is not only John Bogle who today is feeling shame. All the people who followed John Bogle’s ideas are feeling shame too. That’s most of us.

The shame makes us defensive and our defensiveness causes the problem to grow worse and the problem growing worse makes us feel more shame. We’re caught in a trap of self-recrimination.

I believe that the next price crash will help. The next crash will scare us more than did the first one. People who become very scared give up their pride in desperation. If we give up our pride, we will open our minds to accepting ideas that show that we got things wrong in earlier times. That sort of thing doesn’t seem like such a big deal when things reach a point where your way of life is at risk.

We need to hurt. We need to suffer. It’s the only way past the defensiveness and the anger and the shame that keeps us in ignorance today.

We all want the same things. I did not develop the Valuation-Informed Indexing concept by myself. Hundreds of people helped me. Including lots of Buy-and-Holders. Including John Bogle.

I wish that John Bogle and my other Buy-and-Hold friends could see that and that it could help them feel less ashamed of the mistakes they have made. If they felt less shame, they would find it easy to thank me. And I would find it easy to shake their hands and say “don’t worry about it” and begin working together with my Buy-and-Hold friends to rebuild our broken economy.

Filed Under: Silencing of Wade Pfau Tagged With: buy-and-hold, John Bogle, Rob Bennett, safe withdrawal rate

Comments

  1. Evidence Based Investing says

    August 2, 2012 at 11:28 am

    What is really at the core of all this craziness?

    On the surface, it appears to be arrogance. Rob “hocus” Bennett doesn’t admit mistakes. He doesn’t ever, ever, ever, ever, ever admit mistakes.

  2. what says

    August 2, 2012 at 12:12 pm

    This is a hilarious article Rob. Even if you were right (and you are more wrong/crazy than in the ballpark of ‘right’), you are too much of an ass for anyone to every apologize to you.

  3. what says

    August 2, 2012 at 12:15 pm

    A couple more points.

    1) I don’t think anyone hates you, you are just incredibly annoying so people kick you off of websites. I am not sure anyone cares enough about you to actually hate you.
    2) I am pretty sure no one is ‘worried’ about lawsuits on this topic orgininating from Rob Bennett. Mostly because any such lawsuit would be baseless and you are barely coherent (as this article shows).

  4. what says

    August 2, 2012 at 12:19 pm

    Suffering? If anyone is suffering, it is you. Because you made terrible financial decisions which, unless you are bailed out by someone dying and leaving their assets to you, condemn your family to living around the poverty line.

    Your story has nothing to do with lawsuits or the stock market. It has to do with you being an idiot who quit his job and has been performing mental masturbation for more than a decade since.

  5. Rob says

    August 2, 2012 at 12:52 pm

    Rob “hocus” Bennett doesn’t admit mistakes. He doesn’t ever, ever, ever, ever, ever admit mistakes.

    I knew that the numbers in Greaney’s SWR study were wrong on the first day I posted to the Motley Fool board, Evidence. That was in May 2002.

    I didn’t say anything. I was afraid.

    That was wrong. no?

    I just admitted it.

    Now it’s your turn.

    Rob

  6. Rob says

    August 2, 2012 at 12:54 pm

    you are too much of an ass for anyone to every apologize to you.

    You call me an “ass” because it hurts for you to acknowledge that you were played for a fool by the stock-selling experts, What.

    I did nothing to you. I told you the straight story.

    When we stop thinking of those who tell us the straight story as “asses,” we will all be a lot better off in about a thousand different ways.

    My sincere take.

    Rob

  7. Rob says

    August 2, 2012 at 12:55 pm

    I am not sure anyone cares enough about you to actually hate you.

    Here’s Greaney’s site:

    http://www.s152957355.onlinehome.us/cgi-bin/yabb2/YaBB.pl?board=HOCO

    That’s been going on for ten years. That’s hate.

    It’s not a close call.

    Rob

  8. Rob says

    August 2, 2012 at 12:57 pm

    I am pretty sure no one is ‘worried’ about lawsuits on this topic originating from Rob Bennett.

    So long as I let people know that there are lawsuits coming, they know where they stand and my conscience is clear.

    The rest of it is out of my hands, What.

    Rob

  9. Rob says

    August 2, 2012 at 12:58 pm

    It has to do with you being an idiot who quit his job and has been performing mental masturbation for more than a decade since.

    Good point, What.

    Truly outstanding!

    Rob

  10. Evidence Based Investing says

    August 2, 2012 at 1:09 pm

    I knew that the numbers in Greaney’s SWR study were wrong on the first day I posted to the Motley Fool board, Evidence. That was in May 2002.

    Your first post on the Motley Fool board was in May 1999.

  11. Rob says

    August 2, 2012 at 1:15 pm

    That’s correct, Evidence.

    I should have said May 1999.

    It wasn’t until May 2002 that I pointed out the errors in the study.

    That was wrong, wasn’t it?

    That was cowardly, wasn’t it?

    Why do you think I held off?

    It was for all the same reasons that people hold off today.

    That’s why things are such a mess today. We are all going to need to stop being afraid to say out loud what we know about how stock investing works. When we stop being afraid, we are going to make amazing progress together in a very short amount of time.

    I can’t wait!

    Rob

  12. what says

    August 2, 2012 at 4:00 pm

    No, I call you an ass, because you are an ass.

  13. Rob says

    August 2, 2012 at 4:18 pm

    No, I call you an ass, because you are an ass.

    Every investor who I have come across who has behaved as you do here has been a Buy-and-Holder, What.

    I think that tells us something.

    When you make a decision to follow a research-based strategy, it is important that the research you use be research that gets the numbers right.

    I’m here for you if there comes a time when you are more able to engage in civil and reasoned discussion of the investing realities.

    You have my best wishes.

    Rob

  14. Drip Guy says

    August 2, 2012 at 5:01 pm

    How do you know what “what”‘s investment strategy is Rob?

    How do you know what *mine* is, for that matter?

    In fact, how do you know what *anyone’s* is, except for your own (as you publicly espouse a philosophy that you do not follow yourself, by the way)

    You know, just blindly branding anyone who disagrees with you as being a certain type of investor is pretty crappy logic, there, Mr. Journalistic Integrity Reporter Guy.

    In fact, though you have purposely turned a deaf ear to it, over on the Rob’s Hocomania Forum that you post at most every day, many posters have directly TOLD you they do NOT consider themselves buy-n-hold or passive investors or advocates thereof, and that their purpose for following the saga and/or posting is merely YOU.

    So, Rob, just as you’ve always wanted, YOU are the show. Now, aren’t you proud?

    And won’t Rodd and Todd be proud too, when they see how Pop spent his days?

  15. Rob says

    August 2, 2012 at 5:32 pm

    How do you know what “what”‘s investment strategy is Rob?

    The safe withdrawal rate is the product of a numerical calculation, What. I discovered an error in the calculation and reported on it to a Motley Fool discussion board in May 2002. The Old School studies have not been corrected to this day.

    That’s obviously an odd reality, right?

    That’s how I know.

    Anyone who was not a Buy-and-Holder would just correct the study and be on his way, right?

    So I know you are a Buy-and-Holder. Why else would you be so nasty? What other possible motive could you have?

    I am not responsible for the errors in the Buy-and-Hold strategy. All I have ever done is to point them out.

    What the heck are you so angry about? You’re obviously not angry at me because I haven’t done anything to justify anger. You’re angry at DRIP GUY because Drip Guy was taken, Drip Guy was played for a fool, Drip Guy was played.

    If you cannot deal with it today, you cannot deal with it today. But there is no other possible explanation for the behavior.

    If it were just you, it wouldn’t matter except to you. But there are millions like you, Drip Guy. Millions of us were taken. Millions of us were played for fools. Millions of us were played.

    I’ve pointed it out before and I’ll point it out again. That’s all I can do. I cannot MAKE you care about obtaining good investing results. That’s an inside job.

    If you want help, I’ll help you. If you just want to vent, I suppose you will just continue to vent.

    We have a problem and we need to get about the business of fixing it. We are doing serious harm to the public’s confidence in our economic and political systems. So this is a big deal.

    But I cannot solve the problem on my own. I need the help of lots of people. When people are willing to help, I will be here. Until then, the best thing I can think of to do is to make the offer and try to be patient.

    Are you okay with that? Or does even that fill you with rage?

    Rob

  16. what says

    August 2, 2012 at 5:54 pm

    He didn’t seriously name his kids ‘rod’ and ‘tod’ did he?

    “So I know you are a Buy-and-Holder. Why else would you be so nasty? What other possible motive could you have?”

    Other possibilities include that I enjoy Internet freak shows, and you are a special flavor indeed.

  17. Rob says

    August 2, 2012 at 5:57 pm

    I don’t believe you, What.

    I think you are hurting.

    And I think that people like John Bogle and Bill Bernstein and Larry Swedroe and Scott Burns should take a look at what they are doing to people and stop doing it. There are responsibilities that go with making a living giving investing advice.

    That’s my sincere take, in any event.

    I wish you all good things, What.

    Rob

  18. Evidence Based Investing says

    August 2, 2012 at 6:00 pm

    The safe withdrawal rate is the product of a numerical calculation, What. I discovered an error in the calculation and reported on it to a Motley Fool discussion board in May 2002.

    No you didn’t. What you said was that you didn’t understand the concept of a negative portfolio balance after 31 years.

  19. Rob says

    August 2, 2012 at 6:06 pm

    That makes a lot of sense, Evidence.

    Good point.

    Rob

  20. canyon wanderer says

    August 2, 2012 at 6:16 pm

    ”
    I am not sure anyone cares enough about you to actually hate you.

    Here’s Greaney’s site:

    http://www.s152957355.onlinehome.us/cgi-bin/yabb2/YaBB.pl?board=HOCO

    That’s been going on for ten years. That’s hate.

    It’s not a close call.

    Rob
    ”

    and yet you post there with great regularity, and in fact make it point to always have the last post in every thread. if it’s so hateful toward you, why go there? spend your time in more productive places.

  21. Rob says

    August 2, 2012 at 6:26 pm

    if it’s so hateful toward you, why go there?

    Because it’s not all about me, Canyon.

    Greaney started that board because hundreds of community members at the Motley Fool site expressed a desire that honest posting on safe withdrawal rates be permitted at the Motley Fool board. Greaney needed a way to intimidate and punish those who post honestly. So he set that board up and has his Goons travel to any board or blog that permits honest posting for a time.

    When you count all the boards and blogs, there are now thousands of us who have expressed a desire for honest posting. When you count all the middle-class investors who are affected by these issues, the number is in the millions.

    I’m the guy who discovered the errors in the Old School retirement studies. So I’m the leader of the group saying that honest posting should be permitted. So I need to make a statement when Greaney or Lindaurer or any of their Goons engages in intimidation tactics. How else are we ever going to get to a point where our right to post our sincere beliefs are respected?

    If all of my fellow community members spoke up in a firm and clear and bold and uncompromising way, I would’t have to post there. It wouldn’t matter. Once we open all the boards and blogs that have banned honest posting, the Goons have zero influence.

    We are not there today. That’s why I continue to post at Greaney’s site.

    I’m there to help. I try to respond effectively to every question that the Goons ask that contains even a hint of possible sincerity. And I respond to the obviously insincere ones with short strings of random numbers and letters. That makes a statement — Those of us who believe that honest posting should be permitted on safe withdrawal rates and on many other critically important investment-related topics are not going away.

    Do you have any suggestions for better ways to fix this problem?

    Rob

  22. Rob says

    August 2, 2012 at 6:32 pm

    spend your time in more productive places.

    The Linduarheads and Greaney Goons make it a practice to follow me to every board and blog to which I post, as you well know, Canyon. When an academic researcher (Wade Pfau) published peer-reviewed research showing that everything I have been saying for 10 years is supported by the 140 years of historical data available to us today, they even went so far as to threaten to send defamatory e-mails to his employer to get him fired from his job as his punishment for having published honest research on stock investing.

    This problem gets solved when people like John Bogle and Bill Bernstein and Scott Burns and Larry Swedroe speak. If they are too afraid of Mel Lindauer and John Greaney to say anything, they are not cut out for this line of work. When people’s heads are filled with Get Rich Quick fantasies, it hurts for them to learn the realities of stock investing as revealed by the last 30 years of academic research. We need to stop ducking the issue and get about the business of addressing the issue.

    I wish you well.

    Rob

  23. what says

    August 2, 2012 at 7:37 pm

    “I think you are hurting.”

    In what possible way?

    “So long as I let people know that there are lawsuits coming, they know where they stand and my conscience is clear.”

    I think everyone has heard about your imaginary lawsuits so you can probably stop yapping about them. Consider the entire Internet ‘on notice’. The only time anyone would be worried about it is if you get locked up in a mental institution and your cell mate (I don’t even think they have cell mates, but it is a funny image) is a crazy lawyer. That would be hilarious, and probably inconvenient for people whose names you actually know.

    “When you count all the boards and blogs, there are now thousands of us who have expressed a desire for honest posting.”

    You always say this, but how come none of them post here? Oh ya, its becase your are an ass AND these thousands of people are imaginary. Even people like Arty who give you a HUGE benefit of the doubt eventually realize you are a crackpot and a jerk.

    “No, I call you an ass, because you are an ass.

    Every investor who I have come across who has behaved as you do here has been a Buy-and-Holder, What.”

    I would guess that a surprising super majority of non-buy-and-holders consider you a complete ass as well.

  24. Evidence Based Investing says

    August 2, 2012 at 8:06 pm

    That makes a lot of sense, Evidence.

    Good point.

    Here is the quote

    http://boards.fool.com/price-adjusted-safe-withdrawal-rates-17209214.aspx

    “The data that turned up for 1969 concerned me. As I read the data, it appeared to me that had I made an 80 percent stock allocation in 1969, I would now (31 years later) have lost all of my investment and be bankrupt. Is that true? It’s possible that I don’t understand how the calculator works, but that result was disturbing to me. The actual portflio figure that the calculator gave was that I would now have a negative $31,035. I don’t understand the concept of a negative portfolio value. That’s what makes me a little uncertain as to whether I am reading the results correctly.”

  25. Rob says

    August 2, 2012 at 8:47 pm

    I think everyone has heard about your imaginary lawsuits so you can probably stop yapping about them. Consider the entire Internet ‘on notice’.

    The entire internet is obviously not today on notice.

    I will continue mentioning it to the extent demanded by my conscience. Not more and not less.

    Rob

  26. Rob says

    August 2, 2012 at 8:49 pm

    You always say this, but how come none of them post here?

    Why does John Bogle not speak up?

    Why does Bill Bernstein not speak up?

    Why does Scott Burns not speak up?

    Why does Larry Swedroe not speak up?

    We have created a first-class mess for ourselves, What.

    It doesn’t get easier with time. It gets harder with time.

    The best time to acknowledge a mistake in when you first learn of it.

    Once you engage in a cover-up, the next step down is to cover up the cover-up.

    We hit that step 10 years ago.

    Still, there’s a lot of good stuff on the other side of The Big Black Mountain.

    Rob

  27. what says

    August 2, 2012 at 10:42 pm

    What does John Bogle ‘not speaking up’ have to do with thousands of imaginary people who ‘support you’ not posting on your website?

    Oh ya, nothing.

  28. ooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo says

    August 2, 2012 at 11:27 pm

    So where are the apologies?

    Where are the expressions of gratitude?

    Where are the offers to help me spread my ideas far and wide?

    Where are the links to my web site?

    Believe it or not, it’s not all about you. Get over yourself.

  29. Rob says

    August 3, 2012 at 4:52 am

    What does John Bogle ‘not speaking up’ have to do with thousands of imaginary people who ‘support you’ not posting on your website?

    It has everything to do with it, What.

    Bogle has a big name in this field. People trust him.

    If Bogle were recommending my site every day, there are thousands of people who would visit it. And those thousands would tell thousands of their friends. That’s how it happens.

    I need Bogle. I need Bernstein. I need Swedroe. I need Burns. I need all of them.

    I’m not willing to post dishonestly on SWRs to get them. That’s not the answer.

    But I do need their help. This is not a one-man job. We all need to be working together. We all want to become effective investors and see the economic crisis brought to an end. So we all need to do our part in making it happen.

    Rob

  30. Rob says

    August 3, 2012 at 5:03 am

    Believe it or not, it’s not all about you.

    I could say those words right back at you, O.

    One of the big concerns of the Buy-and-Holders is that, if we permit honest posting, Rob Bennett is going to become rich and famous for being the person who developed and promoted the Valuation-Informed Indexing concept. You know what? it won’t be just me. There’s room for hundreds of people to become rich and famous promoting the first truly research-based investing strategy. You could be one of them.

    Do you remember the offer I made to John Greaney when we discovered the errors in his SWR study? I said that I would be happy to work with him to develop an analytically valid SWR methodology. I think it would be fair to say that he would be in a very different place today had he taken me up on that offer.

    That’s true for all the “experts” who are dragging their heels today. Wade would have eventually been published in the Journal of Finance, just as he envisioned. THe Goons are NoWheresVille. They are yesterday. He is an idiot to align himself with them. That’s NOT how you get published in the Journal of Finance. Yes, he was going to have to hang in there a bit, show some patience. That’s the way it is today. You know what? THAT’S WHY HE HAD THE OPPORTUNITY AVAILABLE TO HIM. If winning the Nobel prize were easy, everyone would have at least one of them. Wade had one handed to him on a silver platter. I think it would be fair to say that it was not the brightest move he ever made in his life to piss it away.

    It’s not all about me. Not by a long shot. It’s about all of us. All of us are affected by this economic crisis and we all need to be concerned enough about it to bring it to an end. Some of us will get rich and famous doing so. Some of us will shame ourselves with our cowardly behavior.

    Guess which side of the divide I like to think I am going to land on? And guess which side I would like to think all of my friends (that means you!) are going to land on?

    My best wishes, Goon friend.

    Rob

  31. what says

    August 3, 2012 at 8:09 am

    “If Bogle were recommending my site every day, there are thousands of people who would visit it. And those thousands would tell thousands of their friends. That’s how it happens.”

    I am pretty sure there are a lot of popular web sites that didn’t need Bogle to ‘spread the word’ about them via Twitter. Your content is borderline insane and generally boring. Besides, you keep blabbing on and on about how you have thousands of supportive community members already.

    WHERE ARE THEY?

    Maybe they are the ‘if Rob Bennett wasn’t an ass and had something useful to say they would be supportive’ community members? If so, I think it is a stretch to including them!

  32. Rob says

    August 3, 2012 at 8:39 am

    I am pretty sure there are a lot of popular web sites that didn’t need Bogle to ‘spread the word’ about them via Twitter.

    That’s not so, What.

    Look at the Bogleheads Forum. That forum is the most popular investing site on the internet. They push the same Get Rich Quick/Buy-and-Hold garbage that Bogle pushes. That’s why they are so darn popular.

    Do you really not see this?

    Stocks were priced at three times fair value in 2000. So someone who had a portfolio with a nominal value of $900,000 had a portfolio with a real value of $300,000. What do you think is the more popular investing advice — the advice saying that the nominal number counts or the advice saying that you need to divide the nominal number by 3 to get the real portfolio value?

    Buy-and-Hold is popular because it is a pure Get RIch Quick strategy.

    The only benefit of Valuation-Informed Indexing is that it gives you far higher returns at greatly reduced risk!

    EVERYONE wants greater returns at reduced risk. So VII should be the most popular thing since sliced bread. And it will be! But, first, we need to help people understand how we messed up in the Buy-and-Hold Era and how the conventional investing advice of the past 30 years gets everything 100 percent upside-down.

    To make that happen, I most certainly need Bogle’s help and the help of hundreds of others who today endorse Buy-and-Hold strategies. VII is a research-based strategy. Buy-and-Hold is pure Get RIch Quick garbage. Research-based cannot compete with Get Rich Quick so long as our friends in The Stock-Selling Industry are spending hundreds of millions promoting the pure GRQ garbage.

    But once they all endorse VII — Watch out!

    VII is what Buy-and-Hold was promoted as being from its earliest days. VII is an HONEST research-based approach. Once we overcome that marketing edge that Buy-and-Hold has because of the hundreds of millions spent promoting on it, it’s all over. There is no comparison between the two strategies.

    ALL sites pushing GRQ have benefitted from the hundreds of millions of dollars in marketing push that has been directed to Buy-and-Hold. No one would believe any of this garbage if they knew what the research really showed. My aim is to get enough people to learn what the research says so that people like Bogle will feel ashamed to have their names associated with the GRQ garbage. Then it’s off to the races, my friend!

    None of us really believe in Buy-and-Hold. That’s why the Goons all behave as you do. That’s not confidence, it’s desperation. We need to have all of the “experts” talking about the realities. Once we get them on board, it’s all downhill sledding.

    This is why I often say that I want to see honest posting permitted at every board and blog on the internet. It’s a win/win/win/win/win.

    Take care, man.

    Rob

  33. Rob says

    August 3, 2012 at 8:42 am

    Your content is borderline insane and generally boring.

    Yeah, yeah.

    I’ve heard about guys like you, What. You’re just trying to get on my good side so that I’ll throw a few fish your way when I make my millions.

    Well — I like you, so maybe.

    But I don’t know. There’s only so many fish and there are a lot of hungry people out there.

    Perhaps you could fill out an application. Then we’ll see.

    Fair enough, old friend?

    Rob

  34. what says

    August 3, 2012 at 9:10 am

    So, you aren’t going to answer the question about your imaginary supporters?

  35. Rob says

    August 3, 2012 at 9:14 am

    Everybody alive in the United States is a supporter of permitting honest posting on SWRs and other critically important investment-related topics, What.

    How could anyone not be?

    Do you see any GOOD side to the economic crisis?

    We need to stop the death threats and the defamation and the board bannings and the threats to get people fired from their jobs for the horrible “crime” of telling the truth about the last 30 years of academic research.

    When we apply the rules of personal integrity that apply in every other field of human endeavor to the Wall Street Con Men, we are all on our way.

    The only thing to fear is fear itself.

    Hang in there, Goon friend.

    Rob

  36. what says

    August 3, 2012 at 10:55 am

    So, essentially, you have no ‘supporters’ or ‘community members’ but you behave as if you do.

  37. Rob says

    August 3, 2012 at 11:14 am

    That’s it, What.

    Please take good care.

    Rob

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    • Wall Street Journal Article Pointing Out That the Idea That Long-Term Market Timing Does Not Work Is a "Myth" of Stock Investing "That Will Not Die" Because "This Hoary Old Chestnut Keeps Clients Fully Invested" Even When It Is Contrary to Their Best Interests

    • Wall Street Journal Article Pointing Out That" "This Ratio (P/E10) Has Been a Powerful Predictor of Long-Term Returns" and That "Valuation Is By Far the Most Important Issue for Investors"

    • The Internet Blowhard's Favorite Phrase: Why Do People Love to Say That Correlation Does Not Imply Causation?

    • Michael Kitces (One of the Bravest of the Good Guys in This Field) Asks: "Who's Really at Risk When Avoiding Overvalued Stocks?"

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    • Does the Trend Matter?

    • Improving RIsk-Adjusted Returns Using Market-Valuation-Based Tactical Asset Allocation Strategies

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    • Year 20 Annualized, Real, Total Return v. P/E10

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