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A Rich Life

The Old Ideas on Saving & Investing Don't Work -- Here's What Does

  • "Valuation-Informed Indexing Is the Same Song We Sing. Glad You Belong to the Same Choir We Do."





    Carolyn McClanahan, Director of Financial Planning
    for Life Planning Partners, Inc.

  • "Retirees Now Frequently Base Their Retirement Decisions on the Portfolio Success Rates Found in Research Such as the Trinity Study.... This Is Not the Information They Need for Making Their Withdrawal Rate Decisions."




    Wade Pfau, Academic Researcher

  • "The P/E10 Tool Could Drastically Change
    How the Entire Investment Industry
    Operates and Measures Risk."





    Larry, A PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "The Your Money or Your Life Book
    for a New Generation."





    Beatrix Fernandex, Book Reviewer
    for Dollar Stretcher Site

  • "A Newer School of Thought Believes That the Safe Withdrawal Rate Depends on How Stocks Are Priced at the Time You Begin Making Withdrawals."





    Scott Burns, Dallas Morning News Finance Columnist

  • "A Fascinating Retirement Calculator."







    Michael Kitces, Maryland Financial Planner

  • "The Evidence is Pretty Incontrovertible. Valuation-Informed Indexing...Is Everywhere Superior to Buy-and-Hold Over Ten-Year Periods."




    Norbert Schenkler,
    Co-Owner of Financial WebRing Forum

  • "Every Detail Shows Rob's Respect
    for His Information and His Reader."






    Audrey Owen, Owner of Writer's Helper Site

  • "You’ve Accomplished Something Radical
    With Your Idea of Passion Saving."





    Mark Michael Lewis,
    Money, Mission & Meaning Talk Show Host

  • "Big Moves Out of Stocks Should Not Be Done at All. But Strategic Asset Allocation Can Be Done At Very Rare Times, Maybe Six Times in an Investor’s Lifetime, Three Times When the Market Is Stupidly High and Three Times When Stupidly Low."



    John Bogle, Founder of Vanguard Funds

  • "Valuation-Informed Investing and Passive Investing
    Share More of a Common Ancestry
    Than It Might Appear at First."





    Jacob Irwin, Owner of Passive Investing Blog Carnival

  • "It Is Great to See a Finance Journalist Who Understands That Valuations Matter. Efficient Market Zealotry Is Rampant in the Journalism Community. I Just Love Your Valuation-Based Return Calculator."




    Rich Toscano, Pacific Capital Associates

  • "There Is Always An Unlimited Supply of Complainers Against Any Good Idea."






    Mr. Money Mustache Blogger

  • "Rob: This Has Been One of the Most Insightful and Helpful Comments I Think Anyone Has Ever Posted. Thank You for This Lesson and for Sharing Your Knowledge on This Subject!"




    My Money Design Blogger

  • "There Is An Extensive Literature About the Predictability of Long-Term Stock Returns. There Is an Extensive Literature About Short-Term Market Timing. My Question Is About Long-Term Market Timing. The Literature Seems Slim."



    Wade Pfau, Retirement Income Professor
    at The American College

  • "Your Ideas Are Sound."







    Rob Arnott, Financial Analysts Journal Editor

  • "For Years, the Investment Industry Has
    Tried to Scare Clients Into Staying Fully Invested
    in the Stock Market at All Times, No Matter
    How High Stocks Go. It's Hooey.
    They're Leaving Out More Than Half the Story."



    Brett Arends, The Wall Street Journal

  • "There Are Time-Periods Where Stocks Are a Terrible Addition to That Portfolio. Yet Inexplicably, We As Planners STILL tend to Suggest That It Is 'Risky' to Not Own Stocks When in Reality the Only Risk Is to Our Business."




    Michael Kitces, Maryland Financial Planner

  • "Valuation-Informed Indexing Provides More Wealth for 102 of 110 of the Rolling 30-Year Time-Periods While Buy-and-Hold Did Better in Eight of the Periods."






    Wade Pfau, Academic Researcher

  • "There Is a Growing Behavioral Economics Movement, But It So Far Has Had Limited Impact. Economists Are Not Fond of the Softness and Imprecision of Psychology. These Notions Are Considered Vaguely Unprofessional and Flaky."



    Robert Shiller, Yale University Economic Professor

  • "I Would Occasionally Get a Response Post
    Saying I Was 'the Best Since Rob Bennett
    Challenged Us to Think.'"




    A Popular Bogleheads Forum Poster Named "Retired at 48" Who Was Banned for Challenging Buy-and-Hold

  • "New Research by Rob Bennett Shows That
    Even a 4% Withdrawal Rate Could Cause Failure
    If You Start Retirement When
    Stock Market Valuations Are High.”




    Bernard Kelly, Consultant

  • "FuhGedDaBouDit!"




    William Bernstein, Author of
    The Four Pillars of Investing
    (When Asked Whether We Can Use the Old School Safe Withdrawal Rate Studies to Plan Our Retirements)

  • "This [The Stock-Return Predictor]
    Is a Very Handy Little Tool."






    Felix Salmon, Market Movers Blog

  • "A Much Simpler Way to Bring
    the Valuation Issue to Focus."
    (Referring to The Stock-Return Predictor)





    Karteek Narayanaswarmy, Blogger

  • "It's Informative, It's Based on Solid Data and It Provides Useful Results." (Referring to The Stock-Return Predictor)






    Political Calculations Blog

  • "Meet Three Couples Who Left the Corporate World to Do the Kinds of Work That Satisfied Them."






    Liz Pulliam Weston, MSN Money Columnist

  • "I Like Rob's Fresh Views and Tips
    on the Subject of Saving Money."






    The Digerati Life Blog

  • "A Very Solid Approach to Investing."







    Michael Harr, Founder of Walden Advisors

  • "Rob Bennett Has Been on a Tear With One Outstanding RobCast After Another."





    John Walter Russell, Owner of
    Early-Retirement-Planning-Insights.com Site

  • "It’s Time for a Different Way to Look at Investing, and Rob Is Onto Something Here."






    Kevin Mercadante, Owner of Out of Your Rut Blog

  • "My Afternoon Train Reading."
    (Referring to Rob's Article titled
    Why Buy-and-Hold Investing Can Never Work)





    Barry Ritholtz, Owner of The Big Picture Blog

  • "What Is It With Guys Named Rob?
    Longtime Index Agitator Rob Arnott Has Now
    Been Joined on These Pages by a
    Vanguard Diehard Agitator Named Rob Bennett."




    Jim Wiandt, IndexUniverse.com Publisher

  • "He Offers a Fresh New Perspective
    that Will Motivate You to Get on Track
    With a Solid Savings Plan."





    Lynn Terry, Click Newz Blog

  • "While Browsing at www.PassionSaving.com the Other Day, I Discovered an Article Featuring Ten Unconventional Money-Saving Tips. Each of These Offers a New Way to See Money."




    J.D. Roth, Owner of Get Rich Slowly Site

  • "Rob Has Ideas About Investing That Many Bloggers Find 'Interesting.' His Posts Are Often Controversial and Always Thought Provoking."





    Miranda Marquit, Planting Money Seeds Blog

  • "Is There a Way to Turn Saving Into Something Fun? If There Was, I Bet a Lot More of Us Would Do a Lot More Saving. I Found a Website Where This Basic Premise Is Explored in Great Depth."




    The Great WeiszGuy Blog

  • "I Have Much More Confidence in My Ability to Understand What Is Happening....I Thank You for Your Public Service, and, In Another Dimension, for the Personal Courage It Took to Make It Happen."




    Elizabeth, A PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "I Was Hooked on the Idea of [Passive] Index Indexing, But Something Inside Made Me Wonder "Too Good to Be True?" and "What's the Downside?" I Happened on to Your Site and Valuation-Informed Indexing Seems to Make Sense."



    Coleen, PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "Reads Like a Casual Conversation
    with a Likable Guy Who Wants Nothing More
    Than to Help Others Experience the Same Joy
    and Happiness He Has Found."




    Kara, Reader of Rob's Book

  • "Your 'Secrets' Are Exactly Like Magic Tricks: Once Revealed, They Look So Simple, Yet You Need Somebody to Show You How It Works."





    Kramerizio, Secrets of Retiring Early Reader

  • "Rob's Da Man! Never in the History of the Diehards Forum Has One Poster, Always Making Civil and Well Thought-Out Posts, Managed to Irritate So Many Without Anyone Being Able to Articulate a Good Reason As to Why."




    Mephistopheles, Bogleheads Forum Poster

  • "I’ve Been Surprised at How Controversial This Idea Is, but If Most People Are Buying and Holding, They Are Emotionally Invested in This Strategy."





    Jennifer Barry, Live Richly Blogger

  • "The Findings for [Long-Term] Market Timing Are So Robust That It Hardly Matters How We Do It."






    Wade Pfau, Asociate Professor of Economics

  • "The Elegant Simplicity of His Ideas Throughout Warms the Heart and Startles the Brain."






    Tom Gardner, Co-Founder of the Motley Fool Site

  • "Mr. Bennett Evidences an Unusual Skill....
    You'll Have to Buy a Copy....Extraordinary....
    A Massive Heap of Crap."




    John Greaney,
    Owner of the Retire Early Home Page Site

  • "By Reading All the Information on Your Website I Was Able to Develop a Part of Me I Didn't Know I Would Be Able to Become."





    Javier, PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "Innovative Financial Thinking."







    No Limits, Ladies Blog

  • "Knowledgeable."







    Hope to Prosper Blog

  • "Holy Toledo! This Is Great Stuff!"






    Bill Schultheis, Author of
    The New Coffeehouse Portfolio

  • ""He Offers Down-to-Earth But
    Nevertheless Eye-Opening Insights About
    the Why and the How of Early Retirement."





    Secrets of Retiring Early Reader

  • "Challenges Unfounded Assumptions."







    Bill Sholar, Founder of the Early Retirement Forum

  • "Seminal."






    John Greaney, Owner of Retire Early Home Page Site
    (Pre-May 13, 2002 Version)

  • "It’s Always Good to Read Something New That Challenges Your Way of Thinking."






    Invest It Wisely Blog

  • "Rob, Thanks for All of Your Articulate, Well-Written and Well-Reasoned Commentary."






    Elle, a Poster at the Joe Taxpayer Blog

  • "Although Rob and I Don’t See Eye to Eye
    on Every Detail, His Site Is a
    Valuable Resource for Research."





    Ken Faulkenberry, Portfolio Manager

  • "Thanks, Rob. I Love Seeing So Many
    Personal Finance Bloggers Who Offer Such
    High Quality Content on Their Own Sites Come Here
    to Weigh In [on Your Ideas]."




    Married With Debt Blogger

  • "A Ton of Tremendously Useful Content."







    Network Abundance Radio

  • "Your Enthusiasm Is Infectious."







    Ruth, a PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "I Woke Up at 4:00 am and Stared at the Wall for 20 Minutes....Thank You for Doing What You Do."






    Tasha, A PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "It Might Just Give You
    a New Way of Looking at Saving."






    Kevin Surbaugh, Owner of Debt Free 4Ever Blog

  • "'Staying Too Long in a Job Where You Don’t Feel Relevant Takes a Toll,' Said Rob Bennett, Who Worked for Years in a Well-Paying Corporate Communications Job Where He Didn’t Have Enough to Do."




    The New York Times

  • "You Have Started One of the Most Interesting
    and Stimulating Discussions This Board has Seen
    in a Long Time."





    Poster at Motley Fool Site

  • "A Respected Author and Commentator, Mr. Bennett has Dedicated Himself to Educating Average Investors to Avoid the Most Common Errors."





    Liberty Watch Site

  • "I've Gone from Shattered Dreams of Early Retirement to Glimpses of Hope to Reassurance from Quantitative Research."





    Patricia, A PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "Some of the Most Helpful and Insightful Market Discussions on the Web Take Place on These Pages."





    A Poster at the Safe WithDrawal Rate Research Group
    (Founded by Rob)

  • "Rob is the Only Person I Know (If Only via Message Board) Who has Completely Opted Out of Participation in the Stock Bubble. And You Know What? He Has Benefited Immensely from Doing So."




    Poster at Motley Fool

  • "Makes the Subject of Saving Edgy and Fresh."







    Maxine, A Reader of Rob's Book

  • "Rob Bennett, the Author of a Book Called Passion Saving, Thinks the Saving Problem Is Partly One of Packaging. So He Prefers to Couch it in the Language of Freedom."





    The Wall Street Journal

  • "This Tip Comes from Rob Bennett
    of the Finance Site PassionSaving.com."






    Lifehacker.com

  • "I LOVE This Article and
    Am Proud to be Publishing It!"




    Chuck Yanikoski, Executive Director of
    The Association of Integrative Financial
    and Life Planning

  • "Rob Bennett: Some People Disagree With Him, and He Rubs a Lot of People the Wrong Way. But He Has Interesting Ideas About Valuation-Informed Indexing, and He Delves Into a Lot of What Makes a Successful Investing Strategy."



    Miranda Marquit, Planting Money Seeds Blog

  • "Rob….Wow…..Your Response Sent Shivers
    Up the Ol’ Pilgrim Spine."






    Neal Frankie, Owner of the Wealth Pilgrim Blog

  • "I Have Counseled My Clients to Allocate a Percentage to Equities Based Upon Market Valuations....I Feel Like I've Found a Kindred Spirit. Fascinating Web Site."





    Tom Behlmer, Financial Planner

  • “A Simple Age-Based Asset Allocation Formula Is Not Appropriate, and Any Sensible Asset-Allocation Formula Should Combine Both Age/Investment Horizon and Market Valuation Levels.”




    RationalInvestor.biz

  • "Had a Guest Post This Week from Rob Bennett, Where He Discusses the Benefits of Value-Informed Indexing, Which I Find Very Intriguing."





    Sustainable Personal Finance Blog

  • "I Can Appreciate Rob's Comments.... Buy-and-Hold?
    For the Most Part, a Long Obsolete Theory."






    Neal Deutsch, Certified Financial Planner

  • "Utterly Brilliant!"







    Secrets of Retiring Early Reader

  • "Your Website Is So Enjoyable That It Is Keeping Me From My Research As I Am So Excited That I Have Found Such a Valuable Resource."





    Stuart, a PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "What We're Talking About Here Really
    ...Is Empowerment."






    Motley Fool Poster

  • "The Return Predictor Is Based upon the Principle that Over the Long Term, Stock Market Prices Will Reflect the Ten-Years Earnings Growth of the Underlying Companies. Prices Return to a Common Growth Pattern."




    Links.com Review of The Stock-Return Predictor

  • "Rob’s Arguments in Favor of Value Investing Actually Make a Lot of Sense In a Way That Should Make Any Rational Buy-and-Holder Uncomfortable."





    Pop Economics Blog

  • "What I Don't Understand Is How Rob Can Correspond in Such a Sweet and Polite Way
    -- Yet He Irritates Me to No End!"





    Financial WebRing Forum Poster

  • "You Go About It in a Manner that is Catastrophically Unproductive by Adding Missionary Zeal that Inflates Your Importance and Demeans Others. The Whole Idea That There is a New School of Safe Withdrawal Rates Reeks of Personal Aggrandizement."



    Scott Burns, Dallas Morning News

  • "Inflammatory."







    Morningstar.com Site Administrator

  • “What Warren Buffett Did Was Essentially Quite Close to What Rob Bennett Has Written. Buffett Has in Fact Been Cleverly Incorporating Long-Term Market Timing Based on Valuation of the Market in His Allocation of Money to Stocks.”



    Investor Notes Blog

  • "This Report Offers A Fresh Perspective That Is Rarely Found In Other Financial Literature."






    Secrets of Retiring Early Reader

  • "Rob Bennett Says That Market Timing Based on Aggregate P/E Ratios Can Be a Far More Effective Strategy. This Claim Is Consistent With Shiller's Analysis and I Can See How It Might Be So."




    Rajiv Sethi, Economics Professor at Columbia Univeristy

  • "Retiring Early Was A Concept I Did Not Entertain. I Was Going to Retire at 65 After Putting in 40 Years. Now I Am Glad To Say That All That Has Changed."





    Secrets of Retiring Early Reader

  • "In a Couple of Days, I Had
    Devoured the Entire Book."






    Reader of Rob's Book

  • "FIRECalc May Not Be the Last Word
    on Safe Withdrawal Rates."






    Jonathan Clements, Wall Street Journal

  • "It Seems to Me That Some on This Board Feel Threatened by the Arrival of Rob and His Ideas. They Feel a Threat to Their Perceived Elite Status."





    Motley Fool Poster

  • "You've Got to Say One Thing for Rob. He Has NEVER Lowered Himself to Ad Hominen Attacks -- Subliminal or Otherwise -- on Any Other Person on This Board. Not Once. Ever. At Least Give Him Credit for That."




    Motley Fool Poster

  • "I Have Never Seen Rob Show Incivility. No Matter What. Truly Amazing. Either He Is Really the Output of an Artificial Intelligence Program, or the Man's on the Way to Becoming a Saint!"




    Early Retirement Forum Poster

  • "You're the Politest Guy on the Internet.
    Such a Soft Touch!"






    Jonathan Lewis

  • "Props for Keeping Your Cool in the Married with Debt Article. Best of Luck Combating Buy-and-Hold."






    Money Mamba Blogger

  • "I Caught Up [at the Financial Bloggers Conference] With a Fairly Controversial Financial Blogger
    Named Rob Bennett, Who Struck Me As the
    Nicest Guy Around. There -- I Said It!"




    Digerati Life Blogger

  • "In Rob Bennett's Case, He Was Banned for No Known Listed Forum Policy. Except His Viewpoint Was Different From Other Bogleheads and [He Was Perceived As] a Threat."




    Investor Junkie Blog

  • "Mr. Bennett, You Are Spot on About Integrating Some Type of Valuation Filter to One's Stock Allocation. Astute Investors Have Incorporated Some Type of 'Valuation Timing' Into Their Investment Decisions Since the Beginning of Time."



    Poster at the Psy Fi Blog

  • "His Insights Into What Is Really Going On In The Stock Market Are Quite Compelling."






    Future Storm Blog

  • "It Was an Epiphany...Valuation-Informed Indexing Beats Buy-and-Hold Over Most Long-Term Holding Periods at Much Lower Volatility."





    Sam, a PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "I Am Intrigued By Your Ideas."







    Adam Butler, Portfolio Manager

  • "I Read the Book and I Loved It.
    The Philosophy Resonated with Me.
    I Am a Believer in Your Concept."





    Dr. Peter Weiss, Author of More Health, Less Care

  • "If Your Investment Ideas Can Do for Investing
    What Weston Price’s Ideas Did for Food,
    You’ve Got Our Attention."





    End Times Hoax Blog

  • "I Have Looked at His Website and Reviewed His Research and Find It Both Compelling and Completely Logical and Common-Sense-Based."





    Poster at Free Money Finance Blog

  • "If Investors Paid More Attention to Valuations, We Would Have Fewer Boom-and-Bust Cycles. The Investing Institutions Are Definitely Going to Avoid It Because It Affects Their Income."




    Hope to Prosper Blog

  • "The Calculators on Your Site Are Great Resources. It Amazes Me How So Many People Can Say 'Valuations Matter' Yet, in the Next Breath, They'll Say That We Should Ignore Valuations."




    John Marlowe, Logistics Analyst at Hess Corporation

  • "Must Read As Per My Viewpoint
    For All Value Seekers."






    Ajit Vakil, Value Investing Congress

  • "His Approach Is Both Mathematically Rigorous
    and Easy to Understand."






    Online Investing AI Blog

  • "There Is Nothing More Doubtful of Success Than a New System. The Initiator Has the Enmity of All Who Profit By Preservation of the Old Institution and Merely Lukewarm Defenders in Those Who Gain By the New One."




    Machiavelli

  • "Difficult Subjects Can Be Explained to the Most Slow-Witted Man If He Has Not Formed Any Idea of Them. But the Simplest Thing Cannot Be Made Clear to the Most Intelligent Man If He Believes He Knows Already What Is Laid Before Him."



    Tolstoy

  • "I Am Not Afraid. I Was Born to Do This."







    Joan of Arc

  • "I Certainly Have Seen the Academic Profession Squelching Unfashionable ideas and Have Often Been on the Wrong Side of It. Kuhn Shows How Most Pathbreaking Scientific Ideas Are Rejected at First, Usually for Decades.”




    Carol Osler, Brandeis International Business School

  • "First They Ignore You, Then They Ridicule You, Then They Fight You, Then You Win."






    Ghandi

  • "We Cannot Assume the Existence of Predictability Just Because There Are No Studies That Fully Reject It."






    Valeriy Zakamulin, Economics Professor

  • "I Am Also Extremely Grateful to Rob Bennett for Motivating This Topic and Contributing His Experience and Encouragement."





    Wade Pfau, Academic Researcher

  • "Rob Bennett Was an Early Pioneer in 3rd Generation Modeling by Advocating (Through Various Online Forums) that Withdrawal Rates Must Be Adjusted for Market Valuations Consistent with Research by Campbell and Shiller."



    Todd Tresidder, Financial Mentor Blog

  • "I Am Fascinated by the Growing Body of Research that Revolves Around the P/E10 Ratio by Robert Shiller, Doug Short, Wade Pfau, Michael Kitces, John Hussman, Crestmont Research, Jim Otar, Mike Philbrick, Adam Butler & Rob Bennett."



    Kay Conheady in Advisor Perspectives

  • "Rob Is an Enigma in the Personal Finance World. He Has Interesting Theories on Investing Based on Market Valuations. But He Weaves a Tale Which Makes the Stories of Alexander Litvinenko & Gareth Williams Seem Tame by Comparison."



    Don't Quit Your Day Job Blog

  • "In Recent Years, the 4 Percent Rule
    Has Been Thrown Into Doubt."






    The Wall Street Journal

  • "A Safe Withdrawal Rate Is Very Dependent
    on the Valuation of the Stockmarket
    at the Retirement Date."





    Economist Magazine

  • "I Have Read Everything I Can About Valuation-Informed Indexing. Buy-and-Hold Is Extremely Problematic. I Respect the Passion, Hard Work and Research That You Have Put Into This Very Important Issue. Your Work Has Huge Value."



    Carl Richards, Owner of Clearwater Asset Management

  • "The World of Personal Finance Blogging Needs More Rob Bennetts. He’s Passionate. He’s Intelligent. He’s Writing Things That Go Against the Grain."





    Financial Uproar Blog

  • "Beyond Awesome."







    Larry, a PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "The Wealth Management Industry Seems Intent on Containing This Discussion for Fear Clients Might Discover that the Emperor Has No Clothes."





    Adam Butler, Portfolio Manager

  • "Recommended Reading."







    Jesse's Cafe Americain Blog

  • “All Who Are Still Holding Equities at Present Levels Because Their Financial Adviser Insists that Timing Market Cycles Is Impossible to Do -- Read This!"





    Juggling Dynamite Blog

  • "The Fact that Aggressive and Short-Term Market Timing Was Unproductive Did Not Mean That There Were Never Times When It Would Be Wealth-Maximizing to Get Out of the Market."



    Scott Burris,Director of the Center for
    Health Law, Policy and Practice

  • "The Amount of Return You Can Expect From a Diversified Equity Portfolio Is Inversely Correlated to the Market Valuation at the Start of the Holding Period. It Is One of the Most Robust Statistical Relationships in Modern Finance."




    Todd Tresidder, Financial Mentor Blog

  • "Why Would Your Job Be Jeopardized
    By Such a Sensible Claim?"





    Marcelle Chauvet, Econmics Professor
    at University of California

  • "Received Worrisome E-Mail from Rob Bennett. Warns of Risk with Buy-and-Hold Investing
    -- I Have No Clue."





    Vivek Wadhaw, Business Week Columnist

  • "As Attorney, Tax Expert and Financial Writer Rob Bennett Told Us, the Problem Is That, By the Time Shiller Published His Research, Many Big Names Had Already Endorsed Buy-and-Hold."




    ZeroHedge.com

  • "This Seems to Me to Be a Fundamental Challenge to Some of the Most Basic Tenets of the Boglehead Paradigm."






    Bogleheads Forum Poster

  • "You Want to be Very, Very Wary of Anything Connected with Rob Bennett, the Most Infamous Troll in the History of Investing Forums on the Internet."





    Alex Fract, Owner of Bogleheads Forum

  • “I’ve Had My Fill of Those Long-Winded Posts that Include Distortions, Unsubstantiated Claims, Misquotes and Comments Taken Out of Context.”




    Mel Lindauer, Co-Author of
    The Bogleheads Guide to Investing

  • "Haven't You Noticed Yet That NO ONE Discusses Your Ideas, NO ONE Mentions Your Name, NO ONE Goes To Your Web Site."





    One of the Greaney Goons

  • "I've Had Similar Experiences. I Know of Two Young Professors Who Wanted to Do Research on Fundamental Index and Reported to Me That Their Colleagues Advised Them That This Line of Research Could Derail Their Career Prospects."



    Rob Arnott, Financial Analysts Journal Editor

  • "As with Drug Studies Funded by Drug Companies, It Would Be Churlish to Suppose that the Chicago School of Business Was in the Bag. But It Would Also Be Idealistic to Assume That There Was No Funding Bias at All."




    Bogleheads Poster

  • "This Sort of Intimidation Is Not Acceptable. The Cigarette and Pharmaceutical Industries Found Research Supporting Their Products By Funding It. But That Was Big Money Supporting Outcomes, Not Dissuading Others."




    Lyn Graham, 25-Year CPA

  • "Financial Economists Gave Little Warning to the Public About the Fragility of Their Models. There Is No Ethical Code for Professional Economic Scientists. There Should Be One."



    Paper Titled The Financial Crisis and
    the Systemic Failure of Academic Economics

  • "The Situation [Referring to the Intimidation Tactics Used to Silence Academic Researcher Wade Pfau's Reporting of the Dangers of Buy-and-Hold Investing Strategies] Seems Well Below Any Professional and Academic Acceptable Standards."



    Albert Sanchez Graells, Law Lecturer

  • Many Academics Can Become Quite Strident When Their Views Are Challenged. Academia Is Often Subject to Self-Serving Bias That Obliterates Ethical Bounds."





    Ted Sichelman, Law Professor

  • "I Don't Like Too Much the Conspiracy Idea. I Am Not Pressured By Anyone in My Research."






    Roberto Reno, Economics Professor

  • "This Is What Investing Should Be -- Calculated, Deliberate, Confident, Informed and Simple."






    Aaron Friday, Owner of Aaron's Blob Blog

  • "It Is Obvious that Rob, in Attempting to Identify New Safe Withdrawal Rate Strategies...Is Goring Your Ox. If Rob Improves on [the] Safe Withdrawal Rate Methodology, the Implication Is Clear: You Are All, Metaphorically, Out of Business."



    Bogleheads Poster

  • "I Applaud His Effort to Inject Another Piece of Objectivity Into a Very Complex, Highly Subjective Topic -- Making Money in the Market."





    Bogleheads Poster

  • "Naturally, I Am Finding That Valuation-Informed Indexing Can Allow You to Reach a Wealth Target With a Lower Saving Rate and to Use a Higher Withdrawal Rate in Retirement Than You Could With a Fixed Allocation."



    Wade Pfau, Professor of Retirement Income
    at The American College

  • "A Careful Examination of Past Returns Can Establish Some Probabilities About the Prospective Parameters of Return, Offering Intelligent Investors a Basis for Rational Expectations About Future Returns."




    Jack Bogle, Founder of Vanguard Funds

  • "The Ability to Estimate the Long-Term Future Returns of the Major Asset Classes Is Perhaps the Most Important Investment Skill That An Indivisual Can Possess."




    William Bernstein, Author of The Four Pillars of Investing

  • "The Stock Market Resembles Roulette. In Both Cases, the Accuracy of Sensible Forecasts Rises Over Time."






    Andrew Smithers, Co-Author of Valuing Wall Street

  • "Returns Are for the Most Part a Matter of Simple Arithmetic...Much of Our Industry Seems Fearful of Basic Arithmetic of This Sort."





    Rob Arnott, Financial Analysts Journal Editor

  • "How Can It Be That One-Year Returns Are So Apparantly Random and Yet Ten-Year Returns Are Mostly Forecastable? In Looking at One-Year Returns, One Sees a Lot of Noise. But Over Longer Time Intervals the Noise Effectively Averages Out and Is Less Important."




    Yale Economics Professor Robert Shiller

  • "The Notion That Rich Valuations Will Not Be Followed By Sub-Par Long-Term Returns Is a Speculative Idea That Runs Counter to All Historical Evidence. It Is an Iron Law of Finance That Valuations Drive Long-Term Returns."




    John Hussman

  • "It's January and the Temperature Is Below Freezing. If You Asked Me Whether It Will be Warmer or Cooler Next Tuesday, I Would Be Unable to Say. However, If You Asked Me What Temperature to Expect on April 9, I Could Predict "Warmer Than Today" and Almost Surely Be Right."



    Michael Alexanfer, Author of Stock Cycles

  • "If the Response Is "Who Knew?", It Won't Be Much Comfort for Retirees in the Employment Line at Wal-Mart. This is Especially True Since a Rational Understanding of History and the Drivers of Longer-Term Stock Returns Can Help Retirees To Avoid That Surprise."




    Ed Easterling, Author of Unexpected Returns

  • "New of the Demise of the Random Walk Has Only Very Slowly Spread, In Part Because Its Overthrow Came as a Shock. If the Random Walk Hypothesis Were Correct, the Most Likely Return Would Be the Historic Average Return. The Evidence, However, Is Strongly Against This."



    Andrew Smithers, Co-Author of Valuing Wall Street

  • "I Don't Think We Can Debate the Merits of This Type of Forecasting [Referring to the Numbers Generated by The Stock-Return Predictor] Unless We Believe 'This Time It's Different.'"



    Poster at Bogleheads Forum
    (Before the Ban on Honest Posting Was Adopted There)

  • "I've Seen Absolutely Nothing From You That I Can Use in a Tangible Fashion to Formulate an Investment Plan. Your Ideas Are So Mushy That It's a Complete Waste of Time to Even Consider Them."




    Bogleheads Forum Poster

  • "Do You Really Think Your Tool
    [The Stock-Return Predictor]
    Is 'Wiser' Than the Market?
    If It Was That Easy,
    Everybody Would Be Doing It."



    Bogleheads Forum Poster

  • "The Expected Return of Stocks [As Reported By The Stock-Return Predictor] Needs To Be At Least the Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) Rate for Stock Investing To Make Sense."




    Bogleheads Forum Poster

  • "I Have Used Valuations to Adjust My Asset Allocation For Many Years With Very Favorable Results."





    Poster at Bogleheads Forum
    (Prior to the Ban on Honest Posting)

  • "I Don't Care If You Do or Don't Believe That the Market Will Behave Similarly in the Future As It Has in the Past. Either Way, This [The Stock-Return Predictor] Is an Excellent Way to Understand What the Market Has Done In the Past."


    Poster at Bogleheads Forum
    [Prior to the Ban on Honest Posting]

  • "My Role Is To Give People Who Don't Like What the Historical Stock-Return Data Says About the Effect of Valuations on Long-Term Returns Somebody To Yell At On Internet Discussion Boards."



    Rob Bennett at Bogleheads Forum
    (Prior to the Ban on Honest Posting)

  • "It Really Is a Shame and Indefensible That So Many Feel the Need to Jump Into It With No Interest of Posting on the Topic But Just to Disrupt. Are You That Insecure? Some on the Forum Have an Interest in This Topic. If You Don't, Stay Out!"



    Poster at Bogleheads Forum
    [Prior to the Ban on Honest Posting]

  • "Irrational Behavior Does Follow Patterns. But How Many Experts in Behavioral Finance Believe That Such Knowledge Can Be Used to Predict Markets? Basically, None. Your Model Cannot Attain the Level of Predictive Value You Claim."



    Poster at Bogleheads Forum
    [Prior to the Ban on Honest Posting]

  • "The Safe Withdrawal Rate Studies Are Based on History. This [The Retirement Risk Evaluator] Shows, Based on the Same History, What the Probabilities Are for the Future at Various Starting Points. If the First Has Value, Then Surely This Does Too."



    Poster at Bogleheads Forum

  • "There Are Hundreds of People Who Contributed to This. This Calculator [The Stock-Return Predictor] Demonstrates in a Compelling Way the Power of This New Internet Discussion-Board Communications Medium."




    Rob Bennett at the Bogleheads Forum
    (Prior to the Ban on Honest Posting)

  • "A P/E10 of'26' Is Bad. Now Look at the 30-Year Return Predicted by the Calculator -- 5.4 Percent Real. That's Not Bad. There Are All Sorts of Strategic Implications That Follow From Understanding That Stocks Provide Different Sorts of Returns Over Different Sorts of Time-Periods."




    Rob Bennett

  • "I Would Never Invest in Anything Without Having Any Idea What the Expected Return Is. For Instance, I Would Not Walk Into a Bank And Say "I'll Take One Certificate of Deposit, Please" WIthout Asking What Rate They Are Offering."



    Poster at Bogleheads Forum
    [Prior to the Ban on Honest Posting]

  • "I've Seen Things Said on Investing Boards That I Have Never Heard Said in Discussions of Any Non-Investing Topic. The Question of Whether Valuations Affect Long-Term Returns Is a Topic That Causes People More Emotional Angst Than Does Abortion or Impeachment Proceedings or the War in Iraq."



    Rob Bennett at the Bogleheads Forum

  • "It's Not Possible For Those Who Have Come to Believe That Stocks Are Always Best to Accept that Valuations Matter. The Two Beliefs Are Mutually Exclusive. If Valuations Matter, There Is Obviously Some Valuation Level At Which Stocks Are Not Best. The Two Paradigms Cannot Be Reconciled."


    Rob Bennett

  • "The Great Safe Withdrawal Rate Is Over. Rob Bennett Has Won.The Technical Evidence Supporting This Assertion Is Rock Solid."




    John Walter Russell,
    Owner of the Early Retirement Planning Insights Site
    [This Statement Was Put Forward on August 3, 2003.]

  • "I Am Afraid that the Emperor SWR [for "Safe Withdrawal Rate"] Has No Clothes."





    A Poster at the Early Retirement Forum
    [This Statement Was Put Forward on October 8, 2003.]

  • "I Cite You and John Walter Russell in My Paper as the Earliest and Strongest Advocates of This Approach [New School Safe Withdrawal Rate Research]."




    Wade Pfau, Professor of Retirement Income
    at The American College

  • "Dear Rob -- I Just Became Aware of Your Past Research in September. Since Then, I've Read Archives From Many Discussion Boards and Websites, and I Always Find Your Writing to Be Very Interesting and Intriguing."



    Wade Pfau, Professor of Retirement Income
    at The American College

  • "I Think Rob Bennett Did Provide An Important Contribution in Terms of Describing a Way for P/E10 to Guide Asset Allocation for Long-Term Conservative Investors. I Also Think He Was Right on the Issue of Safe Withdrawal Rates."


    Wade Pfau, Professor of Retirement Income
    at The American College

  • "What Studies Show This [That Long-Term Timing Doesn't Work]? In Particular, Are There Some Academic Studies That I Haven't Found Yet? That's All I Want to Know."




    Academic Researcher Wade Pfau at the Bogleheads Forum After His Own Search of the Literature Turned Up Not a Single Such Study

  • "Because the Precise Timing of This Mean Reversion Is Not Known in Advance, Expecting the Result to Happen in the Short-Term Will Not Be Possible. But Long-Term Investors Who Can Be Patient Can Wait for This Mean Reversion and Will Eventually Come Out Ahead."




    Academic Researcher Wade Pfau

  • "Your Work Is at Odds with the Ethos of the Board -- Here the Theme is John Bogle's Philosophy, Which Eschews Market Timing. This Board Came Into Existence to ESCAPE One Individual, the Very Individual With Whom You Have Openly Aligned Yourself."




    A Lindaurhead (to Researcher Wade Pfau)

  • "The Problem With Long-Term Market Timing Is That It Takes Too Long to Find Out If You Are Right or Wrong."






    A Poster at the Bogleheads Forum

  • "Why Is It Such an Odious Violation of the Tenets of Bogleheadism to Explore Whether Someone Who Has Enough Patience Might Be Able to Benefit from the Transitory Nature of Speculative Returns (the Idea That the P/E Ratio Eventually Ends Up Where It Started)?"




    A Poster at the Bogleheads Forum

  • "Let Me Explain Why I Posted About This Here. Valuation-Informed Indexing Has Had Critics for Years. But Until Norbert Did It In 2008, Nobody Seemed to Have Provided a Serious Investigation of It. I Couldn't Understand Why. That Bothered Me."



    Researcher Wade Pfau at the Bogleheads Forum
    (Prior to the Ban on Honest Posting)

  • "If You Really Don't Like Market Timing in Any and All Forms, You May Not See Any Point in an Empirical Investigation. You View Me as One of a Long Line of Hucksters Trying to Sell You Some Snake Oil. I Don't Want to Be Such a Person."



    Researcher Wade Pfau at the Bogleheads Forum
    (Prior to the Ban on Honest Posting)

  • "Having a Completely Ineleastic Demand for Equities Is a Bit Bonkers. No One Acts That Way with Life's Other Important Commodities. Campbell Advocates a Linear Valuations-Based Strategy so That You Wouldn't Be Making Big Changes. This Would Be Like Rebalancing But More Flexible."



    A Poster at the Bogleheads Forum

  • "The Whole Idea of Valuation-Informed Indexing Belongs to You. Do You Mind if I call the Paper 'Valuation-Informed Indexing'? I Would Give You Credit. I Have Been Toying With the Idea of Sending the Paper to the Journal of Finance, Which Is the Most Prestigious Journal in Academic Finance."


    Academic Researcher Wade Pfau, in an E-Mail to Rob

  • "I Definitely Need to Cite You as the Founder of Valuation-Informed Indexing, As I Have Not Found Anyone Else Who Can Lay Claim to That. Shiller Pointed Out the Predictive Power of P/E10 But Never Discussed How to Incorporate It Into Asset Allocation, As Far As I Know."




    Academic Researcher Wade Pfau

  • "I Tested a Wide Variety of Assumptions About Asset Allocation, Valuation-Based Decision Rules, Whether the Period Is 10, 20, 30 or 40 Years, and Lump-Sum vs. Dollar-Cost Averaging To Show That the Results Are Quite Robust to Changes In Any of These Assumptions."




    Academic Researcher Wade Pfau

  • "Yes, Virginia, Valuation-Informed Indexing Works!"




    Academic Researcher Wade Pfau
    (Wade Holds a Ph.D. in Economics from Princeton.)
    (The Buy-and-Hold Mafia Threatened to Get Wade Fired From His Job When He Reported His Findings.)

  • "I Wrote Up the Programs to Test Your Valuation-Informed Indexing Strategies Against Buy-and-Hold and I Am Quite Excited. You Say in the RobCast That VII Should Beat Buy-and-Hold About 90 Percent of the Time. I Am Getting Results That Support This."




    Academic Researcher Wade Pfau

  • "Never Underestimate the Power of a Dominant Academic Idea to Choke Off Competing Ideas, and Never Underestimate the Unwillingness of Academics to Change Their Views in the Face of Evidence. They Have Decades of Their Research and Academic Standing to Defend."




    Jeremy Grantham

  • "There's So Much That's False and Nutty
    in Modern Investing Practice."






    Warren Buffett

  • "Following Conventional Wisdom Has Led a Generation of Investors Down the Road to Ruin."






    Steve Hanke

  • "It Is Sad That the Idea That Price Doesn't Matter...Should Ever Have Been Seriously Considered".






    Andrew Smithers, Co-Author of Valuing Wall Street

  • "The Conventional Wisdom of Modern Investing Is Largely Myth and Urban Legend."





    Rob Arnott, Former Editor of
    Fianncial Analysts Journal

  • "Economics Is a Dog's Breakfast of Theoretical Ideas and Alleged Causal Relationships That Are At All Times Unproven and In Dispute."





    Terence Corcoran, Editor of National Post

  • "Since They Did Not Diagnose the Disease, There Is Little Popular Confidence That They Know the Cure. What If Economics Is, Actually, At the Same Level as Medicine Was When Doctors Still Believed in the Application of Leeches?"




    Gideon Rachman, Financial Times

  • "One of the Most Remarkable Errors
    in the History of Economics."



    Yale Economics Professor Robert Shiller
    (Referring to the Logical Leap from the Finding That Short-Term Price Changes Are Unpredictable to the Conclusion That the Market Sets Prices Properly)

  • "Everything Has Fallen Apart."






    Peter Bernstein, Author of Against the Gods
    (Referring to Old Views About How Markets Work)

  • "We Wonder Why Funds and Banks, Full of the Best and Brightest, Have Made Such a Mess of Things. Part of the Reason Is That We Have Taught Economic Nonsense to Two Generations of Students."




    John Mauldin, Thoughts From the Frontline

  • "Perhaps Most Scandalously, the Theory [Behind Buy-and-Hold] Remained Received Wisdom Long After Empirical and Theoretical Arguments Had Demolished It Within the Academic Community."




    John Authers, Financial Times

  • "I Love the Humans Dearly (the Title of the Book I Am Writing Is Investing for Humans: How to Get What Works on Paper to Work in Real Life) But They Can Be a Trial at Times. Hey! Helping the Humans Learn What It Takes to Invest Effectively Is Not All That Different From Being Married!



    Rob Bennett

  • "We Are Going to See Hearts Melt Following the Next Crash. I Will Be Working Side-By-Side With All of My Many Buy-and-Hold Friends to Rebuild Our Broken Economy."





    Rob Bennett

  • "Wow, I Did Not Realize You Had Achieved This Much Success and Had Many Devoted Believers/Followers. That’s Great, Then Ignore the Opposition. It Is Great to Have Opposition: That Means You Are Doing Something Right."




    Robert Savickas, Associate Finance Professor
    at George Washington University

  • "I Do NOT Believe I Know It All. I Believe That Shiller Discovered Something Very Important and It Appalls Me That More People Are Not Exploring the Implications of His Findings. My Aim Is To Launch a National Debate."




    Rob Bennett

  • "I Can See How Many Readers Would Be Put Off by the Somewhat Sensational/Scandalist Tone and Would Not Persevere to Read, Thinking You Are Losing Your Mind."




    Robert Savickas, Associate Finance Professor
    at George Washington University

  • "I LOVE Everything About Buy-and-Hold Other Than the Failure to Encourage Investors to Take Price Into Consideration When Setting Their Stock Allocations. That's a Mistake That Was Made Because Shiller’s Research Was Not Available at the Time The Strategy Was Being Developed."



    Rob Bennett

  • "Valuation-Informed Indexing Sounds Like a Real Thing. If It Is and I Can Thoroughly Understand It, Then It Will End Up In My Classrooms and in My Students' Minds (Of Course, With References to You and Wade)."




    Robert Savickas, Associate Finance Professor
    at George Washington University

  • "I Can Confirm Wade Pfau's Experience. Whenever I Send My Papers to the Financial Analysts Journal or Similar Traditional Journals, I Get Rejected."





    Joachim Klement, CIO at Wellershoff & Partners

  • "As a Fan of Thomas Kuhn's The Structure of Scientific Revolutions, I Know That Progress Can Be Frustratingly Slow and What Is Typically Needed Is Either a Crisis or the Ascent of a New Generation of Scientists Who Did Not Build Their Careers on the Old Models and Theories."




    Joachim Klement, CIO at Wellershoff & Partners

  • "We Trace the Deeper Roots [of the Financial Crisis] to the Economics' Profession's Insistence on Constructing Models That, By Design, Disregard the Key Elements Driving Outcomes in Real World Markets."




    Knowledge@Wharton

  • "Rob Gets Himself So Worked Up Over What Someone Else Is Doing With Their Own Money and Not Bothering Rob in the Least. As Long As They Aren't Knocking on Your Basement Door, What Do You Care? They Are Happy and Content. Leave Well Enough Alone and Focus on Your Own Account."


    Dab, One of the Greaney Goons

  • "I've Been on Forum Since the BBS Days and I Think Rob is Special. He Could Be an Internet Meme If He Put Some Effort Into It. Someday, He Will Realize That the Only Thing He's Good At Is Being an Epic Loser. He Just Needs to Embrace That Idea and Run With It. Watch Out, LOLCats, Here Comes Pathetic Guy!"


    Wabmaster, One of the Greaney Goons

  • "Your Lies Are Not Even in the Realm of the Possible, Much Less Actually Credible, Much Less Actually True."






    Drip Guy, One of the Greaney Goons

  • "I'm Your Friend. I Am Not a Boil on Your Ass."






    Rob Bennett, In a Response Comment
    to One of the Greaney Goons

  • "You Guys [the Greaney Goons] Are the Same Jokers Who Have Done This Before, Sparring with Rob Over Nonsensical Issues On This Site and Others, Leveling Personal Attacks, and You Don't Even Use Real Names! Rob Is Entitled to His Opinion, But the Fact That You Challenge Every Jot and Tittle of What He Says Makes It Clear You Have An Unholy Agenda. Please Take It Elsehwere."

    Kevin Mercadante,
    Owner of the Out of Your Rut Site

  • "Rob, Take This As Friendly Advice. You're a Smart and Articulate Guy and You Could Be Making Valuable Contributions to This Discussion. I've Dealt with the Mentally Ill Before and I've Found That They Sometimes Can Be Reasonable If Gently Redirected."



    Goon Poster

  • "Always Remember Others May Hate You, But Those Who Hate You Don't Win Unless You Hate Them, and Then You Destroy Yourself."





    Richard Nixon

  • "I’m a Numbers Guy. And I Believe I Understand Rob’s Thesis, that Future Returns, Over the Next Decade, Have a Tight Inverse Correlation to the PE10 for the Starting Point. Remember, Correlation Doesn’t Need to be 100%, Only That There’s a Bell Curve of Potential Outcomes that Shift Meaningfully Based on the Input."


    Owner of Joe Taxpayer Blog

  • "What a Difference a Threat to Get the Father of Two Small Children Fired From His Job Has on an Investing Discussion, Eh? Long Live Buy-and-Hold! It’s Science! With a Marketing Twist!"




    Rob, Referring to the Wade Pfau Matter

  • "I Respect Rob and His Analysis. He's Bright, Energetic and Passionate. [The Goon Stuff] Is Really Nonsense. I Enjoy a Thought-Provoking Conversation With People I Respect."





    Owner of Joe Taxpayer Blog

  • "The Fact that Shiller is a Proponent of the Approach Takes it from a Fringe View to Mainstream, in my Opinion."






    Owner of Joe Taxpayer Blog

  • "I Have had Academic Researchers Tell Me That They Dream of the Day When They Will be Able to do Honest Research Once Again. I Have had Investment Advisors Tell me That They Dream of the Day When They Will be Able to Give Honest Investing Advice Again."



    Rob Bennett

  • "Let’s Call a Spade a Spade, Shall We? Wade Pfau Stole Your Research and Put His Name on it, Throwing You Just a Tiny Crumb of Acknowledgement to Ward Off a Lawsuit. He’s Profiting Handsomely By His Theft, Leading a Charmed Life, Widely Published, Widely Respected. While Rob Bennett Continues to Toil in Total Obscurity. It’s So Incredibly Unfair, I Think If It Happened to Me, It Could Actually Drive Me Insane."

    One of the Greaney Goons

  • About Us
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  • Valuation-Informed Indexing
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  • The Buy-and-Hold Crisis
    • Academic Researcher Silenced by Threats to Get Him Fired From His Job After Showing Dangers of Buy-and-Hold Investing Strategies
    • Academic Researcher Silenced By Threats to Get Him Fired From His Job After Showing Dangers of Buy-and-Hold Investing Strategies — Teaser Version
    • Corruption in the Investing Advice Field — The Wade Pfau Story
    • The Bennett/Pfau Research Showing Middle-Class Investors How to Reduce the Risk of Stock Investing by 70 Percent
    • Buy-and-Hold Caused the Economic Crisis
    • The True Cause of the Current Financial Crisis — Questions and Answers
    • Investing Discussion Boards Ban Honest Posting on Valuations
    • Wall Street Journal Calls Buy-and-Hold a “Myth,” Endorses Valuation-Informed Indexing

Joachim Klement, CIO at Wellershoff & Partners: “I Can Confirm Wade Pfau’s Experience. Whenever I Send My Papers to the Financial Analysts Journal or Similar Traditional Journals, I Get Rejected.”

July 12, 2013 by Rob

I have been sending e-mails to numerous people, letting them know about my article reporting on The Silencing of Academic Researcher Wade Pfau by The Buy-and-Hold Mafia.

Yesterday’s blog entry reported on my correspondence with Joachim Klement, Chief Investment Officer at Wellershoff & Partners, Inc. Set forth below is the text of the e-mail that Joachim sent me in response to my e-mail to him reported on in the earlier blog entry:

>

Hi Rob
>
Well, I am in the expert panel of Expert Investor Europe and just recently talked about these things in an interview that will be published soon. Also my paper on the Shiller-PE is under review at the Journal for Portfolio Management.
 >
But I can also confirm Wade Pfau’s experience. Whenever I send my papers to the Financial Analyst’s Journal or similar traditional Journals, I get rejected…
 >
Best regards
 >
Joachim
>
I wrote back:
>
It’s a weird coincidence that you mentioned Financial Analysts Journal. I don’t follow the journals so it is possible that I am confused. But I believe that Rob Arnott was the editor of that journal a few years back. Is that right? 

>
Rob and I had a discussion about this stuff just yesterday. He said that he has not been able to get a journal to publish an article he wrote with Harry Markowitz which shows that a modest amount of error in stock prices would fully explain the Fama-French size and value effects. He wrote: “Journals turning down a Nobel Laureate? Yep, it happens.”

 

>

No matter how many times i hear about or see something like this, it amazes me. I am NOT an investing expert. I am a journalist. So I tend to focus on the public policy implications, which are HUGE. If overvaluation is a real thing, then it was the promotion of Buy-and-Hold that caused the economic crisis. All that you need to do to show that is to calculate the amount of overvaluation experienced in the U.S. market in 2000. It was $12 trillion. If that $12 trillion was all phony gains fated to disappear over the course of the next 10 years or so, then $12 trillion of spending power was fated to disappear from the hands of the U.S. consumer. There’s your economic crisis!

>

I am sorry to vent. I just see this as being so big that I cannot get over it. I understand that people have different points of view. That’s normal and healthy. But as someone outside the field I feel that people inside the field have become immune to appreciation of the significance of this. People have come to accept that it takes time for new ideas to catch fire in the academic community and are just sitting back waiting for things to happen. They are not grasping how big this is.

>

Shiller’s ideas turn the fundamentals of our understanding of how stock investing works on their head. So we just need to figure out for sure whether he is right or not. I don’t blame people for proceeding slowly. That makes all the sense in the world. You don’t want to rush to adoption of a new understanding of the fundamentals. But we cannot advance our understanding without full and frank discussions in which lots and lots of smart people participate, including not just academics but also policymakers and journalists and all sorts of other stakeholders. We ALL have an interest in having the stock market function properly and in not seeing overvaluation corrected through crashes and the economic crises that follow from them.

>

I apologize for directing so many words at you. I am to a large extent thinking out loud. My conversation with Arnott yesterday sort of blew my mind. He takes it in stride. He says that I am right on all the substance questions. He doesn’t see what is happening on the process side as being so shocking. I sure do! A Nobel Laureate cannot get work addressing an issue of fundamental importance published in a top-rate journal — Yikes! I don’t think that the average investor has any idea whatsoever that this sort of thing goes on. I say that because I think of myself as an average investor. I am 100 percent shocked by this stuff.

>

Is there any place you know of where people explore the process issues? I feel that this side of things just falls between the cracks. The substance side gets addressed in the journals (or in some cases does not). The process side? I see that as something that we should be hearing about in the New York Times or the Wall Street Journal or in a best-selling book. But it has not yet happened. Politicians spend tons of energy discussing the Federal budget deficit and the economic crisis. We need to have them directing their energies to dealing with the true CAUSE of the crisis if this in fact is the true cause. How do we get them doing that when the journals won’t even publish super-important articles?

>

I don’t expect you to have answers to these questions. I am grateful to you just for your willingness to engage in a little back and forth. I am just venting because to my eyes this is so crazy. If you have any thoughts as to how I could get a national debate launched on the process side of this matter (it’s the process side that I most care about as a journalist), I sure would be grateful if you would pass them along. Is there anyone that you can suggest that I might talk to about doing something on the process side?

>

If not, I 100 percent understand. I of course get it that none of this is your doing. I just feel that we have a matter of huge public policy significance that is falling between the cracks (most journalists feel that investing is too complicated for them to understand and thus elect to let the experts take care of it) and that I need to figure out how to get the process side of this on the national agenda.

>

Rob

Filed Under: Reactions to Pfau Silencing Tagged With: Financial Analysts Journal, financial crisis, investing theory, Joachim Klement

Comments

  1. The Pink Unicorn says

    July 12, 2013 at 2:01 pm

    Gee, more hard hitting journalism. A guy getting turned down on publishing his paper. That happens about what…….98% of the time since publications get bombarded with papers.

  2. Rob says

    July 12, 2013 at 2:17 pm

    It happens more than 98 percent of the time to papers that point out the 140 years of historical return data showing that Buy-and-Hold is the purest and most dangerous Get Rich Quick scheme ever concocted by the human mind, Pink.

    I worked with Wade Pfau for 16 months on the research paper we did together showing millions of middle-class investors how to reduce the risk of stock investing by 70 percent. Wade has a Ph.D. in Economics from Princeton. So he should have known the track record of Buy-and-Hold. But he didn’t. He was amazed to learn what the historical record tells us — Buy-and-Hold has precisely zero chance of ever working for a single long-term investor.

    Wade couldn’t believe what the data showed. He thought that he must have made a mistake. He searched the entire record of peer-reviewed academic research in this field trying to find one study suggesting that there was no need for investors to engage in long-term timing. He found nothing. He went to the Bogleheads Forum to see if anyone there had ever heard of a single study lending even a sliver of support to the Buy-and-Hold “idea.” No one there had heard of a single study. Not Jack Bogle. Not Bill Bernstein. Not Larry Swedroe. Not Rick Ferri.

    Not too much later, you Goons threatened to get Wade fired from his job in the event that he continued publishing honest research. Bogle had no problem with that. Nor did Bernstein. Nor did Swedroe. Nor did Ferri.

    Now Wade understands why no one had published this important research before he and I did.

    The tobacco companies used to promote cigarette smoking as a health aid.

    Millions of people died from cancer as a result.

    Personal integrity matters. Even in the investing advice field. This is my sincere take re this important subject, in any event.

    I wish you all good things.

    Rob the Believer in the Idea that Personal Integrity Matters (Even in the Investing Advice Field)

  3. The Pink Unicorn says

    July 12, 2013 at 3:48 pm

    Rob,

    You repeat the same diatribe over and over again with zero proof. You throw out some phony statistic of 98% and can’t back up a thing. Further, you talk about Wade and use him as proof, yet Wade said you are WRONG. You continue to talk about people trying to get Wade fired, yet you have zero proof. Yet we have proof in which we see that Wade says that you have caused him much more harm.

    Finally, you throw out some comment on cigarettes, yet it has nothing to do with the discussion. I might as well say that Ford pushed the Pinto on the US market just like you push market timing on the US public.

    Personal integrity means that you have facts to back up your comments. You lack facts and, therefore, lack integrity.

  4. Rob says

    July 12, 2013 at 3:55 pm

    Here is the article that I posted re the Wade Pfau matter, Pink:

    http://arichlife.passionsaving.com/the-buy-and-hold-crisis/academic-researcher-silenced-by-threats-to-get-him-fired-from-his-job-after-showing-dangers-of-buy-and-hold-investing-strategies/

    You will have an opportunity to tell your story to a jury and it is that jury that will determine the length of your prison sentence. That’s the way the system works.

    I naturally wish you all the best that this life has to offer a person.

    Rob the Jury Favroite

  5. The Pink Unicorn says

    July 12, 2013 at 4:25 pm

    Once again, you are just providing a link you your own comments.

    The jury won’t like your continued harassment of Wade and you just keep adding to your prison sentence on a daily basis. Wait until the Jury hears this from Wade:

    “I will make one more attempt at a reality check for you. You go on and on about how I allegedly lack personal integrity because I allowed the Goons to threaten me into silence.

    The reality is that though I may have for a brief moment got a bit too caught up in YOUR drama, I do not have any fears about the Goons.

    The reality is that you are causing me 1000x more career damage than the Goons ever could have by filling Google with so much nonsense about me, and sharing embarrassing private details such as my overly ambitious journal submission strategies, etc. Those in particular are highly private. People don’t publicly share where they submit articles to unless those articles are accepted. You’ve violated my trust in so many countless ways and yet you still proclaim to be my friend. ”

    Uh oh, Rob. The jury sure won’t like that. Statements like that will add many years to your jail term. They won’t like the fact that you have sent out over 20,000 emails about Wade, yet you withheld this information that Wade has said. Not good for you.

    The problem is that while you think you can delete emails that don’t look good for you, things really don’t go away.

    Again, Uh Oh for you.

  6. Rob says

    July 12, 2013 at 4:33 pm

    I don’t withhold that statement at all, Pink. There is a link to the post in which I report on that statement at the “The Buy-and-Hold Crisis” section of the site.

    I believe strongly that Wade should be permitted to post honestly. So should everyone else with an interest in these matters. The fact that you Goons threatened an academic researcher is shocking. The fact that people of statute in the field like Jack Bogle and Larry Swedroe and Bill Bernstein and Rick Ferri failed to speak up when it happened is doubly shocking.

    I think it would be fair to say that the investing field is 100 percent corrupt today. That’s not my doing. I am the one who discovered the errors in the Old School SWR studies way back in May 2002 and who has argued from that day forward that the studies should have been corrected within 24 hours of the moment the errors in them became public knowledge. None of the people who have participated in the 11-year cover-up would be facing prison sentences today had the studies been promptly corrected.

    I cannot wave a magic wand in the air and arrange for a do-over. The best I can do is to use my energies to help everyone affected by the economic crisis become aware of these matters. The sooner your prison sentence is announced, the shorter it will be and the fewer will be the number of people joining you in prison.

    So I do what I can do.

    Please take good care, man.

    Rob the Good Solider

  7. The Pink Unicorn says

    July 12, 2013 at 4:46 pm

    You keep pointing at your own posts, Rob. That is not proof.

    Wade has had his say and I posted his words above. He also pointed out how you were wrong on SWRs when he said the following:

    “But I don’t believe that. I do not believe you have offered a valid correction to the safe withdrawal rate question. And I believe that retirement income strategies go much further than the question of a safe withdrawal rate. And so that is why I’ve had to endure your ongoing harassment for months on end now. ”

    Note how he says you are wrong on SWRs. That is a direct statement and totally undermines everything you have ever said as you have made SWRs your main theme. Note how he also talks about your ongoing harassment. Despite him asking you to cease talking about him, you continue doing this and that is ongoing harassment. You must talk about prison so much because you are fearful that this is the place that you will be spending much of your future.

    Again, Uh Oh for you, Rob.

  8. Rob says

    July 12, 2013 at 4:50 pm

    The jury will decide the matter, Pink.

    I wish you all good things.

    Rob the Believer in the Jury System

  9. The Pink Unicorn says

    July 12, 2013 at 4:57 pm

    Yes, Rob, the jury will wonder why you have sent out over 20,000 emails that have defamed Wade after he asked you to stop doing so and how Wade had expressly stated you have harassed him.

  10. Rob says

    July 12, 2013 at 5:05 pm

    I told Wade to go to the police when you Goons threatened him, Pink.

    Wade will have the same opportunity to explain his behavior to a jury that you will have. That’s the way the system works for him as well.

    If I am asked whether I believe that Wade held a sincere fear that his career would be destroyed by the Buy-and-Hold Mafia if he continued to publish honest research, I will testify that I believe that his fears were sincere and entirely justified by what we have all seen from the Buy-and-Hold Mafia for 11 years now.

    I won’t say that this justifies his acts of defamation. It is my strong belief that, if Wade feels 100 percent that it is impossible for a person of integrity to work in this field, his only legitimate course of action is to find another career. Still, I do think his legitimate fears are something that a jury would want to take into consideration.

    There is nothing that would make me happier than to do further honest research on stock investing with Wade after his prison term comes to an end. I think he is a great guy and I enjoyed the time I spent working with him very much. I believe that the work we did together may well earn him a Nobel prize. I think he deserves it.

    My warmest regards to you and yours.

    Rob the Good Friend to a Future Nobel Prize Winner

  11. The Pink Unicorn says

    July 12, 2013 at 8:57 pm

    Defamation and integrity? Well Rob, let’s look back again at what Wade had to say about you:

    “And the further reality is that if I *did* lack personal integrity, I could have made this all stop just by saying the meaningless sentence you want so desperately to hear: “I think the errors in the traditional safe withdrawal rate studies must be corrected by using Rob’s analytically valid method.”

    But I don’t believe that. I do not believe you have offered a valid correction to the safe withdrawal rate question. And I believe that retirement income strategies go much further than the question of a safe withdrawal rate. And so that is why I’ve had to endure your ongoing harassment for months on end now. ”

    Wade is not hiding from anything. Instead, he is commenting specifically on you.

  12. The Pink Unicorn says

    July 12, 2013 at 8:58 pm

    By the way, deleting posts are a clear sign of your guilt.

  13. Rob says

    July 13, 2013 at 5:41 am

    Wade is not hiding from anything. Instead, he is commenting specifically on you.

    Of course the Wade Pfau of today is hiding from something. He is hiding from the honest Wade Pfau of yesterday who spent 16 months working on the most important research published in the last 32 years in this field. There are scores of quotes from Wade reported on at the link below on scores of different topics. No one changes his views on that many different issues in the course of a single day which also just happens to be a day when a band of internet Goons (to which my good friend Jack Bogle lends his implicit support by letting them use his name on their “discussion” board) threaten to destroy his career if he continues publishing honest research.

    http://arichlife.passionsaving.com/the-buy-and-hold-crisis/academic-researcher-silenced-by-threats-to-get-him-fired-from-his-job-after-showing-dangers-of-buy-and-hold-investing-strategies/

    All of these things will come out in the trial, Pink. Bogle will be called to testify. I will be called to testify. Wade will be called to testify. You Goons will be called to testify. A jury will decide on the length of your prison sentence (and on whether there will be prison sentences for Jack and Wade). That’s how the system works.

    My best wishes.

    Rob, the Fellow Who Didn’t Need to Threaten Academic Researcher Wade Pfau Even One Time to Persuade Him to Advance SCORES and SCORES of the Kindest and Most Gratifying Comments About His Work That Wade Could Have Possibly Advanced

  14. Rob says

    July 13, 2013 at 5:46 am

    By the way, deleting posts are a clear sign of your guilt.

    No, it isn’t. It’s a sign that I don’t want to join you in prison, Pink.

    Your crime is financial fraud. You have engaged in death threats and board bannings and tens of thousands of acts of defamation and threats to get academic researchers fired from their jobs because you want to cover up the errors in the Old School safe withdrawal rate studies, right? Well, isn’t any site moderator who fails either to respond effectively to your abusive posts or to delete them ALSO participating in the cover-up?
    It sure seems so to me.

    I have zero interest in joining you in prison, Pink. So I ain’t going there.

    I naturally wish you all the best that this life has to offer a person.

    Rob, the Responsible Site Administrator

  15. The Pink Unicorn says

    July 13, 2013 at 10:32 am

    Rob,

    I think you should change the name of this site to “A Pathetic Life”. It would be more fitting for someone that thinks that his non-stop internet trolling is more important than his wife and kids.

  16. Rob says

    July 13, 2013 at 11:07 am

    I’ll take that one under advisement, Pink.

    Please take good care.

    Rob the Open-Minded Executive

  17. Anonymous says

    July 13, 2013 at 2:28 pm

    We need to say no to people like Rob that promote market timing. It is nothing more than a get rich quick scheme.

    http://rorfinance.com/why-market-timing-is-dangerous/

  18. Rob says

    July 13, 2013 at 3:12 pm

    All of the words that appear at that page are rooted in a belief in the Buy-and-Hold Model for understanding how stock investing works, Anonymous.

    The Buy-and-Hold Model was discredited by peer-reviewed academic research published by Yale Economics Professor Robert Shiller in 1981.

    The Buy-and-Hold Model was developed by people who really and truly believed that market timing does not work and is not necessary.

    These people were both right and wrong.

    They were right about short-term timing. Short-term timing never works and is not required. It was the second biggest breakthrough in our growing knowledge of how stock investing works when we learned this.

    They were wrong about long-term timing. Long-term timing always works and is 100 percent required for any investor seeking to have a realistic hope of long-term investing success. Today’s research shows that Buy-and-Hold has never once in 140 years worked for a single long-term investor. It is a logical impossibility that this could ever change. To fail to practice long-term timing is to fail to exercise price discipline when buying stocks. It is impossible that failing to exercise price discipline could ever produce good results when buying ANYTHING.

    The mistake was made because the early researchers ONLY tested short-term timing. When every test showed that it doesn’t work, they jumped to the false and unjustified conclusion that no form of timing is required.

    Shiller was the first researcher to test long-term timing. He found that long-term timing is 100 percent required. Every test done for the 32 years since has confirmed Shiller’s finding. There is zero support in the research for the Buy-and-Hold strategy.

    The relentless promotion of Buy-and-Hold by the Wall Street Con Men caused the economic crisis.

    You Goons have committed thousands of acts of financial fraud by covering up the errors in the Old School SWR studies for 11 years now.

    The best hope of getting your prison sentences reduced a bit is by opening the internet to honest posting on what the peer-reviewed academic research of the past 32 years tells us about how stock investing works. The millions of middle-class investors whose life savings have been destroyed by the Wall Street Con Men are going to be very angry following the next price crash, which will in all likelihood put us in the Second Great Depression.

    I naturally wish you and yours all good things.

    Rob, the World’s #1 Advocate of Long-Term Market Timing

  19. Anonymous says

    July 13, 2013 at 3:41 pm

    Rob is just peddling is get rich quick scheme like a snake oil salesman. Plenty of research to see that the buy and quick con men like Rob will make you go broke.

    I don’t want any part of that fraud.

  20. Rob says

    July 13, 2013 at 3:47 pm

    We obviously disagree, Anonymous.

    My best wishes to you.

    Rob, the Fellow Who Can Disagree Without Being Disagreeable

  21. Anonymous says

    July 13, 2013 at 4:10 pm

    Not only are you trying to sell your scheme, but you spend almost every waking minute on the internet. You are here 7 days a week at all hours of the day, wasting your life, yet ignoring your family and responsibilities.

  22. Rob says

    July 13, 2013 at 4:21 pm

    Dad loves his work, Anonymous.

    No apologies.

    Do you know how hard the Beatles worked it in those Hamburg clubs?

    Most overnight successes have a lot of elbow grease behind them.

    I started working this stuff hard long before you even knew me.

    In the 90s, when I was at Ernst & Young, I spent every night and every weekend building those 30 binders from which the insights that I used to build the Retire Early board at Motley Fool were derived.

    It’s a lucky person who can say that they know what work they were put on Earth to do. I am one of those lucky persons.

    I’ll let you in on a little secret. John Greaney played a big role in convincing me of the point. I had a pretty good idea before I ever posted at Motley Fool. But you always want to hear outside confirmation. When I put up a few posts at the Retire Early board and he put up that notice directing all newcomers to the board to my stuff because it was “seminal,” that was a huge confidence boost. I have never forgotten it.

    Anyway, thanks for noticing.

    Rob the Passionate

  23. Anonymous says

    July 13, 2013 at 4:58 pm

    Wasting your life and your wife and kids suffer.

  24. Rob says

    July 13, 2013 at 5:16 pm

    They’ll just have to learn how to struggle along somehow on $500 million, Anonymous.

    Life is hard everywhere nowadays.

    Rob the Poor Provider

  25. Anonymous says

    July 13, 2013 at 5:25 pm

    Telling them some fantasy about money that you will never see if just adding insult to injury.

  26. Rob says

    July 13, 2013 at 6:01 pm

    A jury will decide the matter, Anonymous.

    I have confidence in our system of government.

    Rob the Patriot

  27. Anonymous says

    July 13, 2013 at 6:44 pm

    A jury looks at facts. The facts are against you. I see time and again how people have provided facts, yet all you can do is make silly statements and link to your own comments.

    Put that aside. Even brining up a jury is just plain silly. You just use it as a tool to threaten people. There are no charges brought against anyone and it is just your fantasy that it will happen. All you want to do is just scare people and no one is scared as they know the facts stack up against you.

  28. Rob says

    July 13, 2013 at 7:01 pm

    Time will tell the tale, Anonymous.

    I can recall a day when there were people saying that there would never be a day when the Wall Street Journal would run an article saying that I was right about safe withdrawal rates.

    Things change. The History Train moves on.

    You want to be sure that you are not caught standing on the tracks when it comes roaring through town.

    I wish you all the best, in any event.

    Rob the Respecter of the Power of the History Train

  29. Anonymous says

    July 13, 2013 at 7:34 pm

    I don’t recall seeing your name in the Wall Street Journal. I recall a comment in which Wade P said you were wrong on SWR and that it goes way beyond SWR. Here you are on a weekend posting in the early morning hours and still posting into the evening. Notice that you always feel that you have to respond to everything. Responding to this post or even deleting this post will prove that you know you are wrong and/or you have a significant mental illness.

  30. Rob says

    July 13, 2013 at 8:18 pm

    I don’t recall seeing your name in the Wall Street Journal.

    If you were in a situation in which you could be honest about these matters, you would have objected to that omission.

    The same is so with my good friend Jack Bogle.

    And with Bill Bernstein.

    And with Larry Swedroe.

    And with Scott Burns.

    And on and on.

    For so long as you and these others are not in a situation in which you can be honest about these matters, I hold the advantage, Anonymous.

    Perhaps you’ve noticed.

    Rob

  31. Anonymous says

    July 13, 2013 at 8:45 pm

    “Responding to this post or even deleting this post will prove that you know you are wrong and/or you have a significant mental illness”

    Thanks for proving my point.

    Unlike you, I am honest.

  32. Anonymous says

    July 13, 2013 at 9:08 pm

    “he same is so with my good friend Jack Bogle.

    And with Bill Bernstein.

    And with Larry Swedroe.

    And with Scott Burns.”

    They are not your friends and you aren’t even qualified to tie their shoes.

  33. Rob says

    July 14, 2013 at 4:55 am

    Thanks for proving my point.

    My warmest wishes to you, Anonymous.

    Rob the Warm

  34. Rob says

    July 14, 2013 at 5:02 am

    They are not your friends and you aren’t even qualified to tie their shoes.

    I couldn’t possibly disagree more, Anonymous.

    One of the things I love about the Wade Pfau e-mails is that you can hear in his words how much he loves helping people. That is what caused him to enter this field in the first place. As he tapped into new insight about how stock investing really works following upon new insight about how stock investing really works, he was like a kid getting a bike on his birthday, jumping up and down with excitement about things he could do tomorrow that he never dreamed about doing in the past.

    I am 100 percent confident that there was a day when my good friend Jack Bogle felt the same way. And that there was a day when my good friend Larry Swedroe felt the same way. And that there was a day when my good friend Bill Bernstein felt the same way. And that there was a day when my good friend Scott Burns felt the same way.

    A Second Great Depression will cause vast amounts of human suffering, Anonymous. I have a funny feeling that these good people are going to respond to seeing that vast amount of human suffering playing out before them by swallowing their pride a little bit and learning how to pronounce the words “I” and “Was” and “Wrong.”

    I’ll let you in on a little secret. I think that you, my friend, may do the same.

    We’ll see.

    I wish you all the best that this life has to offer a person.

    Rob the Fellow Who Remains Confident of the Basic Goodness of His Buy-and-Hold Friends

  35. what says

    July 14, 2013 at 9:36 am

    So, when is time going to tell? It has been 11 or 12 years?

    Do you talk with your family about how you have 500 million coming your way? You may want to mention it.

  36. Rob says

    July 14, 2013 at 9:49 am

    So, when is time going to tell? It has been 11 or 12 years?

    It’s determined by investor emotion, What.

    Do you remember the days when I was blacklisted by every investing blog on the internet? It’s not like that today. If I want a Guest Blog Entry to run this week, I have a dozen sites I can go to that will run my stuff. That tells you that the emotion is less than it once was.

    But the emotion is still there! Say that I want to run a Guest Blog Entry discussing the length of your prison sentence. That I cannot get published today. I could have gotten it published at the “1,000 Papercuts” site. That was the only place where I could discuss the POLITICAL side of all this.

    So investors are today LESS emotional than they were in earlier days. But still heavily emotional. We still cannot talk about the most important stuff.

    We all have a Get Rich Quick urge within us and we all have common sense. Those two emotional inclinations do battle and determine stock price changes. People are today holding onto Buy-and-Hold in desperation. But it is getting harder and harder as the economic crisis continues. The price crash will come when people lose interest in phony recoveries, knowing from their common sense that the only way we can see a lasting recovery is to acknowledge the true cause of the economic crisis — Buy-and-Hold — and deal with this monster we have created.

    I do not expect it to take more than a year or two or at most three.

    Rob the Not-Quite-Blacklisted One (Anymore)

  37. Rob says

    July 14, 2013 at 10:04 am

    Do you talk with your family about how you have 500 million coming your way? You may want to mention it.

    I’ve made reference to “hundreds of millions” on a small number of occasions. I don’t believe I have ever referred specifically to the $500 million figure.

    My wife doesn’t count the $500 million (or whatever amount) as real. It’s not her style. If I said that a friend of mine promised to give me ten bucks he owed me, she wouldn’t count it in the books until it was reduced to dollars bills. She’s a “Show Me the Money!’ kind of gal.

    I’m not that way. I am a conceptual thinker (nice way of putting it) or a dreamer (harsh way of putting it). I see things that do not exist in concrete form and watch them take shape. The Myers-Briggs personality assessment system refers to my personality type as the “Seer.” We don’t use crystal balls. We see into the future because we see connections that other personality types miss. These connections are every bit as tangible to us INFJs as numbers are to the INTJs. We seem to be able to see into the future because we see things going on today that others do not see and we are able to see where those things are leading us.

    I didn’t ask to possess this ability. But I don’t apologize for it. We all possess something. This ability to be a “Seer” is the gift that I was given. My job is to make good use of the power.

    Anyway, my wife and my boys certainly know that I expect a big payday. They love me but they do not possess the confidence that this is how things will turn out that I possess.

    I acknowledge that there’s a chance that the payday will not come. If Bogle never works up the courage to say “I Was Wrong” we all go down together. I don’t want that to happen. But it’s not like there’s anything I can do about it that I have not already done.

    Bogle doesn’t want us to go down either, you know. That’s a comforting reality for me. When things get so bad that he sees no other option, he will say the magic words. I want him to say those words NOW. But it’s not my call. I get one vote, like everybody else, like it or not.

    When I am up on that stage with my good friend Jack working with him to turn this around, there’s not going to be one person saying “oh, don’t give that fellow $500 million, he should only get $495 million.” The $500 million figure sounds big when you don’t understand what is going on. Once it all clicks for you, you will see that it is a trivial number in relative terms.

    Bogle is not a bad person. He will be the first one to sign off on the $500 million payday, in my assessment.

    I don’t think you’re an entirely bad person either, What. You may not be the second person to sign off. But I believe that there will come a time when you will sign off. I sure hope so. We will be friends then. Good!

    Rob, the Fellow Waiting Patiently for His $500 Million Payday

    Rob

  38. what says

    July 14, 2013 at 12:36 pm

    Have you laid out your plan of spamming emails to thousands of people to your wife as the primary means by which you will achieve your 500$ million?

    What do you say when they ask you what you do online all the time?

  39. Rob says

    July 14, 2013 at 1:08 pm

    The responses to the e-mails are available to anyone who cares to view them, What.

    The Wall Street Con Men have been screwing millions of middle-class investors for 32 years now.

    The losses they have caused have grown so massive that we are now in an economic crisis.

    My site documents this massive act of financial fraud.

    That’s how change is achieved, What.

    How do you think we got the tobacco companies to stop saying that smoking is a benefit to one’s health? We put people in prison. Companies learned that there would be a big price to pay for continuing to work that con. We got the word out to millions. Today, people know the realities. That’s good.

    That’s how the system works, my old friend.

    Your prison sentence changes everything. Not just yours. The prison sentences of all those who have posted in “defense” of Mel Lindauer and John Greaney change everything. Those prison sentences are how we as a society send a message re what forms of marketing we will tolerate and what forms go so far over the line that they cannot be permitted in a free society.

    After your prison sentence is announced, we won’t have one academic researcher publishing honest research. We will have hundreds. Perhaps thousands.

    We are in the process of accomplishing something very, very, very cool here.

    I am the one who gets the $500 million. You are the one who gets the prison sentence. That’s just the way it happened to play out.

    Not because I didn’t want you sharing the $500 million with me. I invited you to the party, remember? I practically got down on my knees and begged you to join the thousands of our fellow community members who expressed a desire that honest posting be permitted.

    You chose the path you are on today, my old friend.

    Please try not to be a crybaby about it now that you are getting a good sense of where it takes you.

    Fair enough?

    Rob the Big Fan of Crybaby Posts (Not!)

  40. The Deleted plop contributor says

    July 14, 2013 at 2:57 pm

    Another typical week for Rob as he posts 7 days a week, with posts starting well before the sun rises and continuing on through the day and into the evening. He repeats the same lines with the same lies over and over again, throws in his threats of prison and the fantasy of the $500 million monopoly money and through it all he continues to ignore his family.

    I guess that is what a serious mental illness will do to someone.

  41. Rob says

    July 14, 2013 at 3:16 pm

    The record company that owned the legal right to issue the first three Beatles Singles (Love Me Do, Please Please Me and From Me to You) elected not to issue them because to the great minds of the day the Beatles were obviously nothing more than a fad.

    Buy-and-Hold is garbage, Deleted. There is now 32 years of peer-reviewed academic research showing that. I have my name on the most important piece of research done in this field in the past 32 years, research showing millions of middle-class investors how to reduce the risk of stock investing by 70 percent.

    You hate me with a burning hate not because you do not see the value of reducing investing risk by 70 percent. You hate me with a burning hate because you DO see the value and you hate the fact that it was not you who was busy developing the Valuation-Informed Indexing Model over the past 11 years instead of wasting your human energies “defending” a model that had been discredited by 21 years of academic research on the day I put forward my famous post pointing out the errors in the Old School SWR studies.

    Yes, I will continue to work it.

    And, yes, I will win.

    And, yes, people will be talking about Valuation-Informed Indexing and all the good it has done for millions of people 50 years from now.

    And, no, no one ever will say that the Old School SWR studies did anything other than to destroy millions of middle-class lives.

    The only thing unsure at this point in the proceedings is the length of your prison sentence, Deleted.

    It will be shorter if you come clean prior to the next price crash, longer if you come clean after the next price crash.

    This mentally ill dude has the hand of kindness extended to you.

    But this mentally ill dude ain’t ever going to engage in financial fraud himself and thereby earn himself a prison cell next to yours.

    My best wishes to you and yours.

    Rob, the Mentally Ill Dude Who Warns People About the Dangers of Buy-and-Hold

  42. The Deleted plop contributor says

    July 14, 2013 at 4:40 pm

    Another typical Rob post that includes:

    Reference to something that is not even closely related (this time the Beatles).

    Buy and hold diatribe (even though buy and hold people have higher returns than Rob)

    Reference to Academic research (even though Wade told Rob that he is wrong on SWRs)

    Rob talking about hate (when it is Rob that demonstrates his hate)

    Rob espousing the merits of market timing (that has been shown time and again to be a get rich quick scheme)

    Rob’s delusion that he will “win” despite wasting the last 11 years and continuing to do the same thing

    Predicting the stock crash (as he has for the last 11 years)

    Threats of prison (typical tactic by someone that knows he is wrong and just wants to try and scare people since he has nothing left to debate)

    Another lame signature line

    Come on now, Rob. Using the same material over and over again is getting boring. Try harder.

  43. Rob says

    July 14, 2013 at 4:46 pm

    Thanks for sharing your thoughts, Deleted.

    Rob the Lame Signature-Line User

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    • Study by Associate Professor Wade Pfau Showing That Valuation-Informed Indexing Beat Buy-and-Hold in 102 of 110 Rolling 30-Year Time-Periods in the Historical Record

    • Wall Street Journal Article Pointing Out That the Idea That Long-Term Market Timing Does Not Work Is a "Myth" of Stock Investing "That Will Not Die" Because "This Hoary Old Chestnut Keeps Clients Fully Invested" Even When It Is Contrary to Their Best Interests

    • Wall Street Journal Article Pointing Out That" "This Ratio (P/E10) Has Been a Powerful Predictor of Long-Term Returns" and That "Valuation Is By Far the Most Important Issue for Investors"

    • The Internet Blowhard's Favorite Phrase: Why Do People Love to Say That Correlation Does Not Imply Causation?

    • Michael Kitces (One of the Bravest of the Good Guys in This Field) Asks: "Who's Really at Risk When Avoiding Overvalued Stocks?"

    • Financial Mentor Article Reporting on How Our Knowledge of How to Calculate Safe Withdrawal Rates Has Grown During the First Nine Years of The Great Safe Withdrawal Rate Debate

    • Does the Trend Matter?

    • Improving RIsk-Adjusted Returns Using Market-Valuation-Based Tactical Asset Allocation Strategies

    • A Value Restoration Project Blog Post That Sums Up in Three Paragraphs All You Need to Know to Become a Highly Effective Investor

    • Year 20 Annualized, Real, Total Return v. P/E10

    • Year 10 Annualized, Real, Total Return v. P/E10

    • Valuation-Informed Indexing Always Superior to Buy-and-Hold Over 10-Year Periods

    • The Valuation-Informed Indexing Advantage

    • What P/E10 Predicted vs. What Actually Happened

    • Normal and Valuation-Adjusted Wealth Accumulation

    • Valuation-Informed Indexers Can Retire Five Years Sooner

    • Following Valuation-Informed Indexing Strategies Reduces Stock Investing Risk by 80 Percent

    • S&P 500 Tracked by P/E10 Level

    • Treasury Inflation-Protected Income Securities (TIPS) Table

    • Best, Average and Worst Returns Since 1871

    • Compound Annual Growth Rate Calculator

    • Investing Through Time

    • Mapping S&P 500 Performance

    • S&P 500 at Your Fingertips

    • S&P 500 Return Calculator

    • Russell's Research

    • Shiller's Data

    • Safe Withdrawal Rate Research Group

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