Set forth below is the text of a comment recently posted to another blog entry at this site:
Oh, don’t worry! I never said I knew the extent to which valuations might affect future stock prices. Correlation data suggests historically they may have to some extent, some of the time, though correlation doesn’t always mean causation. I’ll be the first to admit that the future’s a very uncertain place. No boorish hocomania here. I focus on the things I can control, like gainful employment and a high savings rate.
Uh, oh. Michael Kitces must be a goon. He makes a case for the 4% SWR. He is basically calling you a liar, Rob.
https://www.kitces.com/blog/how-has-the-4-rule-held-up-since-the-tech-bubble-and-the-2008-financial-crisis/
Thanks much for linking to that article, Anonymous. It is a gravely flawed article. However, it also contains a LOT of powerful and compelling and important stuff. My first impression is that in an overall sense this article adds to our understanding of safe withdrawal rates in a very significant way. I will explore both the good and bad sides of the article in next Value Walk column.
When you say that Michael “makes a case for the 4 percent SWR,” I think what you are trying to communicate is that those who created retirement plans calling for a 4 percent withdrawal even during the recent years when valuations have been insanely high may well see those retirement plans succeed. That is of course 100 percent true. There has never been any question about that whatsoever. I have of course been saying that since the first day.
The question has always been why the Buy-and-Holders feel a need to engage in deception re the odds that those retirements will survive for 30 years. Those who took a 4 percent withdrawal at the top of the bubble had a 30 percent chance of seeing their retirements survive 30 years. Those retirements obviously were not “safe” in any reasonable sense of the word. So why not tell people that? Why lie about it? Why use death threats and other abusive practices to keep people in the dark. Why commit felonies? Why go to prison rather than acknowledge a mistake you make that has been revealed by 34 years of peer-reviewed research?
Michael goes into a good bit of depth re an important point. He keeps noting how conservative the numbers are that are produced by a SWR analysis. That is an important point that is often overlooked. The SWR was 1..6 percent in 2000. The SWR for TIPS, a risk-free asset class, was 5.8 at the time. By moving to a risk-free asset class, retirees of that day were able to TRIPLE their SWR and retire many, many years sooner than would be possible if they were Buy-and-Holders. That’s amazing. Everyone needs to know that. That shows in a powerful way how important a factor the valuations factor is.
When I was doing the research with JohnWalter Russell that led to creation of the Retirement Risk Evaluator many years back, I saw the point that Michael is making in this article and suggested to John that we provide more than just the SWR in our calculator. We let investors know the withdrawal rate that has a 95 percent likelihood of success (the safe withdrawal rate). But we also identify the rate that has only an 80 percent likelihood of success for the benefit of those who feel that they can live with a bit less safety than the amount of safety achieved by using the safe-wthdrawal-rate concept as it was employed at the time.
Anyway, super (but also gravely flawed) article. Michael will change the world for the better in a very important way if he works up the courage to take on the Buy-and-Holders in a more direct and honest way.
When Michael testifies at your trial, he will be testifying that it is you Goons and the Wall Street Con Men who have been the liars, Anonymous. I am 100 percent sure re that one.
But we’ll see, right?
Rob
Have you thought of contributing to that discussion at Michael’s site or are you banned from there as well?
Thank goodness we have the all powerful, all knowing and leading financial expert known as Rob Bennett to tell everyone that they don’t know what they are talking about or doing.
Have you thought of contributing to that discussion at Michael’s site or are you banned from there as well?
I’ve contributed at Michael’s site many times, Evidence. As you of course well know.
I will probably post a comment there sometime later today.
Michael and I have had numerous discussions re you Goons and re your Wall Street Con Men pals. Michael is like a lot of others. He wants to tell the truth about stock investing. But he fears what you Goons and what the Wall Street Con Men will do to him and his career if he goes “too far.” So he is cautious in what he says and hurts his readers by being so cautious.
He is aware of the legal risk in being too supportive of you Goons. He had told me that he will not ban someone solely for posting honestly. Michael is smarter than most re this question, in my assessment. So, no, I do not expect to be banned by him. About the worst he will do is to not engage with me even when he feels that I am making very strong points. That’s certainly safer from a legal perspective than banning someone.
I observe certain lines when posting at this site, to a large extent in deference to him and to the difficult situation in which he finds himself (and in which we all find ourselves). I limit my comments to the content issues. So I don’t use phrases like “financial fraud” and “prison sentences.” You Goons might try to bait me re that stuff. When you do, I make vague references to the criminal matters but hold back from being too explicit in deference to the tough spot in which Michael (and all us trying to post honestly re the last 34 years of peer-reviewed research) finds himself.
We will all feel free to be much more explicit re this vast act of financial fraud following the next price crash. I will not be holding back then and my guess is that Michael will not feel a need to hold back much either. The goal will be to get the prison sentences announced so that there will be fewer prison sentences and so that those that do get announced are somewhat shorter than they would otherwise be.
I look forward to those days. I obviously hate to think about the human suffering we will see as a result of our failure as a society to take action against you Goons and against your Wall Street Con Men pals. But I am confident that we will all feel a lot better about ourselves once the smelly Buy-and-Hold garbage has been buried 30 feet in the ground and we can all get back to our jobs of giving honest and accurate investment advice to the millions of people who need it. Rebuilding a broken economy is a lot more life-affrming than tearing a great economic system down.
That’s my sincere take re these terribly important matters, in any event.
My best and warmest wishes to you and yours, my long-time abusive posting friend.
Rob
Thank goodness we have the all powerful, all knowing and leading financial expert known as Rob Bennett to tell everyone that they don’t know what they are talking about or doing.
I of course understand that you are being sarcastic, Anonymous. But I would strongly agree with the point that you are making if you were speaking sincerely.
I am certainly not all powerful. Nothing could be more clear than that. Acting on my own, I have close to zero power. I am in the process of changing the history of investing analysis in a very big and a very positive way. But we are not going to see effects in the practical realm until I have lots of good and smart people working with me. I need Jack Bogle working with me. I need Wade Pfau working with me. I need Motley Fool working with me. I need Rob Arnott working with me. I need Mike Piper working with me. I need Micael Kitces working with me. Together, we have great power. Isolated, you Goons and your Wall Street Con Men pals have the power to neutralize or destroy each and every one of us. So as of today my power is minimal. That’s in the process of changing. however. Wish me luck!
I am not all knowing either. Obviously
But the world knows a whole bug bunch more about how stock investing works in the real world than most of us dare to let on today. The last 34 years of peer-reviewed research are the most important 34 years of peer-reviewed research we have ever seen in history. We had all the pieces of the puzzle but one in place in 1980. But that one missing piece (the need to always, always, always practice price discipline) represented 80 percent of the stock investing story. Now that we have that piece of the puzzle in place as well (intellectually for 34 years but obviously not in a practical sense until we experience the next price crash and your prison sentence is announced), we are able to reduce the risk of stock investing by 70 percent while showing millions of middle-class investors how to retire five to ten years sooner than they ever imagined possible in the Buy-and-Hold Era. Wow. That’s amazing. Our system is a great system. The Buy-and-Holders were right the first time — research-based strategies really are better than Get Rich Quick schemes.
Shiller is a giant. But what has he really achieved in the practical realm? The Buy-and-Holders have now caused four economic crises in 145 years. There are millions of people out of work today because Bogle has not been able to work up the courage to say the words I” and “Was” and “Wrong.” There are hundreds of thousands of entrepreneurs who have seen their businesses fail because so many of us were afraid to call our friend Jack out on his smelly b.s. There are millions who will be suffering failed retirements in days to come because Motley Fool put turning a quick buck ahead of enforcing its site rules in a reasonable manner. And because the Early Retirement Forum betrayed its readers in the same way. As did Morningstar. As did the Bogleheads Forum. As did the Financial Mentor site. As did the Oblivious Investor site. And on and on and on.
I’m honest, Anonymous.
That’s my edge. I care about my readers and I cannot betray them by pretending that I believe that there is some secret adjustment for the valuation level that applies on the day the retirement begins buried in the Greaney retirement study somewhere where no one has been able to find it for 13 years now.
Just being honest gives one a huge edge in a time in which the investing advice field has become 100 percent corrupt because of the brutally abusive tactics of a small group of Wall Street Con Men who have put their own pride and wealth ahead of the best interests of an entire nation of people.
I am very proud of what I have done by calling Bogle and all the other Wall Street Con Men out on their b.s. and on the criminal acts that they have engaged in to cover up their b.s. investing advice. I believe that the day that your prison sentence is announced will be made a national holiday in times to come, a Second Independence Day for all of us. Can you imagine how great a country this is going to be when the people who work all their lives to be able to finance decent retirements in their old age will be able to access honest and accurate reports of what the peer-reviewed research says about what works (price discipline) and what doesn’t (Get Rich Quick schemes that defy both common sense and the entire historical record)?
I think that we are on our way to some amazing places. I know it. I am humbled to have been able to play such a big role in getting us there.
You will be in prison when the rest of us are enjoying seeing how our system of laws helped us all to those amazing places. But please keep in mind that prison sentences eventually come to an end. Once you have paid your debt to society, you will be warmly welcomed to join in all the fund. I will see to it, my long-time abusive-posting friend. Please just hang in there. Things will look a lot better once we all make it to the other side of The Big Black Mountain.
I naturally wish you the best of luck in all your future life endeavors.
Rob
None of those people want to work with you, Rob. Mike Piper banned you and Wade Pfau asked you to leave him alone. I think you already have your answer.
Both Mike and Wade want to work with me very, very much, Anonymous.
As you well know.
I have hundreds of posts and e-mail comments that I will be presenting to the jury that will be deciding on your prison sentence.
As you well know.
Rob
I observe certain lines when posting at this site, to a large extent in deference to him and to the difficult situation in which he finds himself (and in which we all find ourselves). I limit my comments to the content issues.
So you have the ability to restrain yourself to the topic at hand. If you exercised such restraint more often then you wouldn’t be banned as much.
You are of course correct that I wouldn’t be banned as much, Evidence. That’s OBVIOUSLY true. That’s why the vast majority of people who have grave doubts about Buy-and-Hold are so careful about how they express those doubts. That’s why they do so in such roundabout ways that most of their readers don’t even catch on that they have doubts. That’s why we are in an economic crisis today.
Shiller didn’t publish peer-reviewed research showing that there is precisely zero chance that a Buy-and-Hold strategy can ever work for even a single long-term investor last week. He published it 34 years ago. How long do you think we should all wait until we begin directing our mental energies to examining the IMPLICATIONS of his “revolutionary” (Shiller’s words) findings?
I cannot do my work if I cannot post honestly, Evidence. Neither can Wade Pfau. Neither can Jack Bogle. Neither can Robert Shiller. Neither can Mike Piper. Neither any anyone else.
We ALL need to win recognition of our right to post honestly. When I win recognition of that right for Rob Bennett, I am winning recognition of that right for everyone on this planet. Winning recognition of that right for everyone on this planet will be the biggest advance in personal finance in the history of our nation. There is no other advance that we have ever achieved that even comes close. That’s why I will be receiving the check for $500 million.
I want to talk about content issues. 100 percent. Everyone else wants that too.
But I want to talk HONESTLY about content issues. And that part is 100 percent non-negotiable.
What I am doing in demanding recognition of everyone’s right to post honestly is as important as what Shiller did in posting his revolutionary (Shiller’s word) research. Shiller got us where we need to go intellectually. I am getting us where we need to go in the practical realm. Shiller did amazing work. But millions of investors are completely in the dark re the implications of his amazing work. That needs to change. It is because we have not explored the implications of Shiller’s amazing work for 34 years now that we are in the worst economic crisis in the history of our nation.
I wish that somebody had done this before I came on the scene. If someone had done this before I came on the scene, it never would have entered Greaney’s head that it would be okay to threaten to kill my wife and children as my penalty for having dared to “cross” him by posting honestly on safe withdrawal rates.
EVERYONE should be posting honestly. And EVERYONE should be giving full recognition to everyone else’s right to post hones;y. There should be zero controversy re this point.
There is controversy because those who have engaged in criminal acts don’t want to go to prison.
I am fine with doing what I can to shorten those prison sentences a bit. But if I agree to commit financial fraud myself, I thereby INCREASE the length of all those prison sentences while earning a prison sentence of my own.
Um — no thanks.
I would be grateful if you would try to find somebody else.
No can do
I can’t go for that.
Not this boy.
It’s not my particular cup of tea.
Going to prison is not high on my bucket list.
Call me madcap.
Rob
“I will probably post a comment there sometime later today.”
I don’t see your comment. Too busy yesterday?
Yes.
The Phillies traded Cole Hamels Wednesday night. A lot of my time yesterday was devoted to going through the various articles and analyses generated by that move.
In the old days, I would have made it a priority to get a comment posted to Michael’s article. I don’t do that so much nowadays. There’s been a big change.
When I put forward my famous post of the morning of May 13, 2002, I had no idea what was going on. I knew that the Old School safe-withdrawal-rate studies were in error, that was all. I still thought of myself as a Buy-and-Holder. I learned about the errors in the SWR studies by reading Bogle’s book. I viewed Buy-and-Hold as a research-backed approach and so I couldn’t even imagine that the Buy-and-Holders would have any objections to my pointing out that the Old School SWR studies got the numbers wrong according to the last 34 years of peer-reviewed research (it was 21 years of research at the time I put forward the post).
I gave up on Buy-and-Hold on the evening of August 27, 2002, when Greaney threatened to kill my wife and children if I continued to post honestly on the SWR matter and 200 Buy-and-Holders endorsed his post. Since that time, my energies have been directed to development of the Valuation-Informed Indexing concept. VII is what Bogle intended to create back in the days when he was developing the Buy-and-Hold concept. Had Shiller’s “revolutionary” (his word) research of 1981 been available to him at the time, Bogle would obviously have created the VII concept and we would all be in a much better place today. Bogle didn’t have that research available to him at the time, so he got it wrong and then he was too ashamed of his mistake to acknowledge it when the peer-reviewed research showing that he had gotten it all terribly wrong was published. And here we are.
In the early years, I thought it was important to persuade people of the merits of VII and of the dangers of BH. For obvious reasons. So, in those days, if I saw a generally sound but also gravely flawed article like the one that Michael Kitces wrote, I would have been sure to post a comment at his site.
I don’t see that as being a big deal today. Michael knows that I am right. Michael knows that Buy-and-Hold is garbage. We have had many e-mail conversations about the subject and I have reported on those conversations at this web site. I don’t need to persuade Michael of anything because Michael gets it.
Michael is scared. He has seen the Wall Street Con Men destroy the careers of people who have dared to “cross’ them by providing honest reports of what the last 34 years of peer-reviewed research tells us about how stock investing works in the real world. Michael doesn’t want his career destroyed. So he keeps it zipped. He tells his readers as much as he believes he can get away with and then he either keeps quiet about the rest or lies about it (if someone like me puts him on the spot by asking for a direct answer to a direct question).
Michael is a smart and good man. He should be helping us all in huge ways. But he does not believe that he should have to sacrifice his career just to help out millions of middle-class investors. So he commits financial fraud to the extent that the Wall Street Con Men demand that he do so. Maybe Michael will go to prison, maybe he will not. It’s his jury that will determine that. I believe in our jury system. I am happy to leave that one to Michael’s jury.
I ain’t committing no felonies! That ain’t never going to happen. That one was settled on the morning of May 13, 2002 There’s no turning back re that one.
Once your prison sentence is announced, Michael Kitces and thousands of others will be posting honestly re the last 34 years of peer-reviewed research on a daily basis. No one will be afraid of the Wall Street Con Men or of you Goons when you are safely locked away in prison cells, where you belong. So that’s where all the action is today. The sooner your prison sentence is announced, the sooner we all move out of this economic crisis to the greatest period of economic growth in U.S. history.
Michael’s article is a good one. I intend to analyze it in my next Value Walk column.
But I don’t think it makes much difference anymore whether I post a comment at his site or not. There is nothing that I can say that is going to get Michael to post honestly so long as he fears what the Wall Street Con Men and you Goons will do to him if he does so. Once you are in prison, he will obviously be happy to post honestly on every investing subject under the sun. So the only question that matters anymore is when your prison sentence is announced.
I believe that your prison sentence will be announced shortly after the onset of the next price crash. But I guess we are all going to have to wait to see for sure. None of us owns a crystal ball.
Michael and I will be the best of friends following the announcement of your prison sentence. Then my comments will mean something because he will feel free to respond to them honestly. At that time I will suggest that he re-post the article he posted this week and I will post my honest comments and others will do so as well and Michael will make whatever changes in the article that he feels are needed at a time when it has become the thing to do honest work in this field again.
That’s where things stand, Anonymous. All words spent on investing analysis during a time when honest posting on the last 34 years of peer-reviewed research is prohibited are empty words. I am not interested in putting forward empty words and I am not terribly interested in discussing other people’s empty words either. The most important piece of business before us as a nation today is getting your prison sentence announced. That is my priority today and it will remain my priority until every investing discussion board and blog is opened to honest posting on every critically important investment-related topic.
We’re getting there. Slowly but surely.
I love my country. Part of what is involved in loving your country is believing that it will come through a crisis like this stronger than ever. I think that we are all seeing the process of this country showing how great it is play out before our eyes. Getting you Goons sent to prison is a PROCESS. It is a process that plays out before us post by post, day by day, peer-reviewed research insight by peer-reviewed research insight.
I naturally wish you the best of luck in all your future life endeavors, my long-time abusive posting and soon-to-be prison-dwelling friend.
Hang in there, man.
Rob
“I gave up on Buy-and-Hold on the evening of August 27, 2002, when Greaney threatened to kill my wife and children if I continued to post honestly on the SWR matter”
1. I know that after 13 years of jihad, it must be hard for you to consider, but — is it *just* possible that you made a mistake in interpretation, and that the lives of your family were NOT credibly threatened in a public forum, in writing, by an otherwise competent, law-abiding, and generous wealthy early retiree multimillionaire, who has never been seen by others to make any threat (including the one you claim!)?
2. Even assuming they were threatened by some sick individual on a message board, would that be a logical basis for changing your personal investment practices; any more than an automobile accident would change your gardening choices?
It’s not just that Greaney made the threat, Anonymous. That could just be the action of one crazy person.
It’s that 200 Buy-and-Holders ENDORSED his post. That showed me what we are up against.
That’s emotion. Pure emotion. One cannot reason with a death threat. One cannot persuade someone who endorses death threats by pointing him to the peer-reviewed research.
The Buy-and-Holders are in great emotional pain. They truly believe in Buy-and-Hold on one level of consciousness. They invest their own money pursuant to Buy-and-Hold principles. To that extent they are sincere. But on another level of consciousness the Buy-and-Holders understand that price must matter. And the conflict drives them freakin’ nuts!
That’s the story. That’s where we are.
Buy-and-Holders are like alcoholics. You tell them that they have a problem and they pound the table screaming that it is not so. To someone who does not share the addiction, the very fact that they are pounding the table and screaming testifies to the nature of the problem.
But there is a whole big bunch more money to be made selling the alcoholic drinks than there is to be made trying to help him avoid falling into the gutter.
Until he hits bottom.
When the Buy-and-Holders hit bottom, I believe that we will have a chance to rebuild our broken economy. The Buy-and-Holders are good people and smart people and hard-working people. I believe that they will be working right alongside the millions of middle-class investors whose lives have been destroyed once they see where their Get Rich Quick addiction is leading them.
I write for the Buy-and-Holders as much as I write for the Valuation-Informed Indexers. I love them. I care for them. I think of them as friends. I will be doing everything that I can do to help get their prison sentences reduced following the crash.
But I won’t lie for them. That would be degrading to them. They are in the fix they are in today because too many people who are too cowardly to stand up to them rationalize their cowardly behavior as charitable behavior. We all should have spoken up about this stuff a long, long time ago. Had Motley Fool banned Greaney back in June 2002, Greaney would not be on his way to a prison cell today. I am Greaney’s best friend in the world. I am 500 times more of a friend to Greaey than Greaney is to himself.
That’s how I see things, in any event.
Greaney is not an isolated crazy person. Bogle permits his name to be used at a discussion board that welcomes people who have posted in “defense” of Greaney to participate in its discussions. Huh? Bogle is as much responsible for this economic crisis as is Greaney.
I love both of them. That’s why I will not lie for them. I think the lies are killing them, not helping them. I think that deep inside both of them would like to come clean.
My best wishes to you.
Rob