Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:
145 years is too short to be making these kinds of conclusions. Far too short.
I don’t agree.
But I wouldn’t say that the point that you are making here is entirely unreasonable. This is the biggest reason why I say that it is possible that I am wrong. I would like to have ten times the data. I would like to have 1,450 years of returns to look at instead of 145 years. I would be a lot more confident if I had 1,450 years of returns to look at rather than 145 years.
The bottom line remains the same. I believe that the 145 years of historical data available to us tells us something important. I believe in research-based strategies. All of the research available to us is based on that 145 years of returns. Robert Shiller holds a Ph.D. in Economics and he believes that the 145 years of returns tells us something important. Wade Pfau holds a Ph.D. in Economics and he believes that the 145 years of returns tells us something important. Rob Arnott holds a Ph.D. in Economics and he believes that the 145 years of returns tells us something important.
I am going to continue to post honestly re safe withdrawal rates and re all other critically important investment-related topics. Non-negotiable. I have zero willingness to negotiate re this matter.
And I wish all of you Goons the best of luck in all your future life endeavors.
I hope that works for you.
Rob
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