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A Rich Life

The Old Ideas on Saving & Investing Don't Work -- Here's What Does

  • "Valuation-Informed Indexing Is the Same Song We Sing. Glad You Belong to the Same Choir We Do."





    Carolyn McClanahan, Director of Financial Planning
    for Life Planning Partners, Inc.

  • "Retirees Now Frequently Base Their Retirement Decisions on the Portfolio Success Rates Found in Research Such as the Trinity Study.... This Is Not the Information They Need for Making Their Withdrawal Rate Decisions."




    Wade Pfau, Academic Researcher

  • "The P/E10 Tool Could Drastically Change
    How the Entire Investment Industry
    Operates and Measures Risk."





    Larry, A PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "The Your Money or Your Life Book
    for a New Generation."





    Beatrix Fernandex, Book Reviewer
    for Dollar Stretcher Site

  • "A Newer School of Thought Believes That the Safe Withdrawal Rate Depends on How Stocks Are Priced at the Time You Begin Making Withdrawals."





    Scott Burns, Dallas Morning News Finance Columnist

  • "A Fascinating Retirement Calculator."







    Michael Kitces, Maryland Financial Planner

  • "The Evidence is Pretty Incontrovertible. Valuation-Informed Indexing...Is Everywhere Superior to Buy-and-Hold Over Ten-Year Periods."




    Norbert Schenkler,
    Co-Owner of Financial WebRing Forum

  • "Every Detail Shows Rob's Respect
    for His Information and His Reader."






    Audrey Owen, Owner of Writer's Helper Site

  • "You’ve Accomplished Something Radical
    With Your Idea of Passion Saving."





    Mark Michael Lewis,
    Money, Mission & Meaning Talk Show Host

  • "Big Moves Out of Stocks Should Not Be Done at All. But Strategic Asset Allocation Can Be Done At Very Rare Times, Maybe Six Times in an Investor’s Lifetime, Three Times When the Market Is Stupidly High and Three Times When Stupidly Low."



    John Bogle, Founder of Vanguard Funds

  • "Valuation-Informed Investing and Passive Investing
    Share More of a Common Ancestry
    Than It Might Appear at First."





    Jacob Irwin, Owner of Passive Investing Blog Carnival

  • "It Is Great to See a Finance Journalist Who Understands That Valuations Matter. Efficient Market Zealotry Is Rampant in the Journalism Community. I Just Love Your Valuation-Based Return Calculator."




    Rich Toscano, Pacific Capital Associates

  • "There Is Always An Unlimited Supply of Complainers Against Any Good Idea."






    Mr. Money Mustache Blogger

  • "Rob: This Has Been One of the Most Insightful and Helpful Comments I Think Anyone Has Ever Posted. Thank You for This Lesson and for Sharing Your Knowledge on This Subject!"




    My Money Design Blogger

  • "There Is An Extensive Literature About the Predictability of Long-Term Stock Returns. There Is an Extensive Literature About Short-Term Market Timing. My Question Is About Long-Term Market Timing. The Literature Seems Slim."



    Wade Pfau, Retirement Income Professor
    at The American College

  • "Your Ideas Are Sound."







    Rob Arnott, Financial Analysts Journal Editor

  • "For Years, the Investment Industry Has
    Tried to Scare Clients Into Staying Fully Invested
    in the Stock Market at All Times, No Matter
    How High Stocks Go. It's Hooey.
    They're Leaving Out More Than Half the Story."



    Brett Arends, The Wall Street Journal

  • "There Are Time-Periods Where Stocks Are a Terrible Addition to That Portfolio. Yet Inexplicably, We As Planners STILL tend to Suggest That It Is 'Risky' to Not Own Stocks When in Reality the Only Risk Is to Our Business."




    Michael Kitces, Maryland Financial Planner

  • "Valuation-Informed Indexing Provides More Wealth for 102 of 110 of the Rolling 30-Year Time-Periods While Buy-and-Hold Did Better in Eight of the Periods."






    Wade Pfau, Academic Researcher

  • "There Is a Growing Behavioral Economics Movement, But It So Far Has Had Limited Impact. Economists Are Not Fond of the Softness and Imprecision of Psychology. These Notions Are Considered Vaguely Unprofessional and Flaky."



    Robert Shiller, Yale University Economic Professor

  • "I Would Occasionally Get a Response Post
    Saying I Was 'the Best Since Rob Bennett
    Challenged Us to Think.'"




    A Popular Bogleheads Forum Poster Named "Retired at 48" Who Was Banned for Challenging Buy-and-Hold

  • "New Research by Rob Bennett Shows That
    Even a 4% Withdrawal Rate Could Cause Failure
    If You Start Retirement When
    Stock Market Valuations Are High.”




    Bernard Kelly, Consultant

  • "FuhGedDaBouDit!"




    William Bernstein, Author of
    The Four Pillars of Investing
    (When Asked Whether We Can Use the Old School Safe Withdrawal Rate Studies to Plan Our Retirements)

  • "This [The Stock-Return Predictor]
    Is a Very Handy Little Tool."






    Felix Salmon, Market Movers Blog

  • "A Much Simpler Way to Bring
    the Valuation Issue to Focus."
    (Referring to The Stock-Return Predictor)





    Karteek Narayanaswarmy, Blogger

  • "It's Informative, It's Based on Solid Data and It Provides Useful Results." (Referring to The Stock-Return Predictor)






    Political Calculations Blog

  • "Meet Three Couples Who Left the Corporate World to Do the Kinds of Work That Satisfied Them."






    Liz Pulliam Weston, MSN Money Columnist

  • "I Like Rob's Fresh Views and Tips
    on the Subject of Saving Money."






    The Digerati Life Blog

  • "A Very Solid Approach to Investing."







    Michael Harr, Founder of Walden Advisors

  • "Rob Bennett Has Been on a Tear With One Outstanding RobCast After Another."





    John Walter Russell, Owner of
    Early-Retirement-Planning-Insights.com Site

  • "It’s Time for a Different Way to Look at Investing, and Rob Is Onto Something Here."






    Kevin Mercadante, Owner of Out of Your Rut Blog

  • "My Afternoon Train Reading."
    (Referring to Rob's Article titled
    Why Buy-and-Hold Investing Can Never Work)





    Barry Ritholtz, Owner of The Big Picture Blog

  • "What Is It With Guys Named Rob?
    Longtime Index Agitator Rob Arnott Has Now
    Been Joined on These Pages by a
    Vanguard Diehard Agitator Named Rob Bennett."




    Jim Wiandt, IndexUniverse.com Publisher

  • "He Offers a Fresh New Perspective
    that Will Motivate You to Get on Track
    With a Solid Savings Plan."





    Lynn Terry, Click Newz Blog

  • "While Browsing at www.PassionSaving.com the Other Day, I Discovered an Article Featuring Ten Unconventional Money-Saving Tips. Each of These Offers a New Way to See Money."




    J.D. Roth, Owner of Get Rich Slowly Site

  • "Rob Has Ideas About Investing That Many Bloggers Find 'Interesting.' His Posts Are Often Controversial and Always Thought Provoking."





    Miranda Marquit, Planting Money Seeds Blog

  • "Is There a Way to Turn Saving Into Something Fun? If There Was, I Bet a Lot More of Us Would Do a Lot More Saving. I Found a Website Where This Basic Premise Is Explored in Great Depth."




    The Great WeiszGuy Blog

  • "I Have Much More Confidence in My Ability to Understand What Is Happening....I Thank You for Your Public Service, and, In Another Dimension, for the Personal Courage It Took to Make It Happen."




    Elizabeth, A PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "I Was Hooked on the Idea of [Passive] Index Indexing, But Something Inside Made Me Wonder "Too Good to Be True?" and "What's the Downside?" I Happened on to Your Site and Valuation-Informed Indexing Seems to Make Sense."



    Coleen, PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "Reads Like a Casual Conversation
    with a Likable Guy Who Wants Nothing More
    Than to Help Others Experience the Same Joy
    and Happiness He Has Found."




    Kara, Reader of Rob's Book

  • "Your 'Secrets' Are Exactly Like Magic Tricks: Once Revealed, They Look So Simple, Yet You Need Somebody to Show You How It Works."





    Kramerizio, Secrets of Retiring Early Reader

  • "Rob's Da Man! Never in the History of the Diehards Forum Has One Poster, Always Making Civil and Well Thought-Out Posts, Managed to Irritate So Many Without Anyone Being Able to Articulate a Good Reason As to Why."




    Mephistopheles, Bogleheads Forum Poster

  • "I’ve Been Surprised at How Controversial This Idea Is, but If Most People Are Buying and Holding, They Are Emotionally Invested in This Strategy."





    Jennifer Barry, Live Richly Blogger

  • "The Findings for [Long-Term] Market Timing Are So Robust That It Hardly Matters How We Do It."






    Wade Pfau, Asociate Professor of Economics

  • "The Elegant Simplicity of His Ideas Throughout Warms the Heart and Startles the Brain."






    Tom Gardner, Co-Founder of the Motley Fool Site

  • "Mr. Bennett Evidences an Unusual Skill....
    You'll Have to Buy a Copy....Extraordinary....
    A Massive Heap of Crap."




    John Greaney,
    Owner of the Retire Early Home Page Site

  • "By Reading All the Information on Your Website I Was Able to Develop a Part of Me I Didn't Know I Would Be Able to Become."





    Javier, PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "Innovative Financial Thinking."







    No Limits, Ladies Blog

  • "Knowledgeable."







    Hope to Prosper Blog

  • "Holy Toledo! This Is Great Stuff!"






    Bill Schultheis, Author of
    The New Coffeehouse Portfolio

  • ""He Offers Down-to-Earth But
    Nevertheless Eye-Opening Insights About
    the Why and the How of Early Retirement."





    Secrets of Retiring Early Reader

  • "Challenges Unfounded Assumptions."







    Bill Sholar, Founder of the Early Retirement Forum

  • "Seminal."






    John Greaney, Owner of Retire Early Home Page Site
    (Pre-May 13, 2002 Version)

  • "It’s Always Good to Read Something New That Challenges Your Way of Thinking."






    Invest It Wisely Blog

  • "Rob, Thanks for All of Your Articulate, Well-Written and Well-Reasoned Commentary."






    Elle, a Poster at the Joe Taxpayer Blog

  • "Although Rob and I Don’t See Eye to Eye
    on Every Detail, His Site Is a
    Valuable Resource for Research."





    Ken Faulkenberry, Portfolio Manager

  • "Thanks, Rob. I Love Seeing So Many
    Personal Finance Bloggers Who Offer Such
    High Quality Content on Their Own Sites Come Here
    to Weigh In [on Your Ideas]."




    Married With Debt Blogger

  • "A Ton of Tremendously Useful Content."







    Network Abundance Radio

  • "Your Enthusiasm Is Infectious."







    Ruth, a PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "I Woke Up at 4:00 am and Stared at the Wall for 20 Minutes....Thank You for Doing What You Do."






    Tasha, A PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "It Might Just Give You
    a New Way of Looking at Saving."






    Kevin Surbaugh, Owner of Debt Free 4Ever Blog

  • "'Staying Too Long in a Job Where You Don’t Feel Relevant Takes a Toll,' Said Rob Bennett, Who Worked for Years in a Well-Paying Corporate Communications Job Where He Didn’t Have Enough to Do."




    The New York Times

  • "You Have Started One of the Most Interesting
    and Stimulating Discussions This Board has Seen
    in a Long Time."





    Poster at Motley Fool Site

  • "A Respected Author and Commentator, Mr. Bennett has Dedicated Himself to Educating Average Investors to Avoid the Most Common Errors."





    Liberty Watch Site

  • "I've Gone from Shattered Dreams of Early Retirement to Glimpses of Hope to Reassurance from Quantitative Research."





    Patricia, A PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "Some of the Most Helpful and Insightful Market Discussions on the Web Take Place on These Pages."





    A Poster at the Safe WithDrawal Rate Research Group
    (Founded by Rob)

  • "Rob is the Only Person I Know (If Only via Message Board) Who has Completely Opted Out of Participation in the Stock Bubble. And You Know What? He Has Benefited Immensely from Doing So."




    Poster at Motley Fool

  • "Makes the Subject of Saving Edgy and Fresh."







    Maxine, A Reader of Rob's Book

  • "Rob Bennett, the Author of a Book Called Passion Saving, Thinks the Saving Problem Is Partly One of Packaging. So He Prefers to Couch it in the Language of Freedom."





    The Wall Street Journal

  • "This Tip Comes from Rob Bennett
    of the Finance Site PassionSaving.com."






    Lifehacker.com

  • "I LOVE This Article and
    Am Proud to be Publishing It!"




    Chuck Yanikoski, Executive Director of
    The Association of Integrative Financial
    and Life Planning

  • "Rob Bennett: Some People Disagree With Him, and He Rubs a Lot of People the Wrong Way. But He Has Interesting Ideas About Valuation-Informed Indexing, and He Delves Into a Lot of What Makes a Successful Investing Strategy."



    Miranda Marquit, Planting Money Seeds Blog

  • "Rob….Wow…..Your Response Sent Shivers
    Up the Ol’ Pilgrim Spine."






    Neal Frankie, Owner of the Wealth Pilgrim Blog

  • "I Have Counseled My Clients to Allocate a Percentage to Equities Based Upon Market Valuations....I Feel Like I've Found a Kindred Spirit. Fascinating Web Site."





    Tom Behlmer, Financial Planner

  • “A Simple Age-Based Asset Allocation Formula Is Not Appropriate, and Any Sensible Asset-Allocation Formula Should Combine Both Age/Investment Horizon and Market Valuation Levels.”




    RationalInvestor.biz

  • "Had a Guest Post This Week from Rob Bennett, Where He Discusses the Benefits of Value-Informed Indexing, Which I Find Very Intriguing."





    Sustainable Personal Finance Blog

  • "I Can Appreciate Rob's Comments.... Buy-and-Hold?
    For the Most Part, a Long Obsolete Theory."






    Neal Deutsch, Certified Financial Planner

  • "Utterly Brilliant!"







    Secrets of Retiring Early Reader

  • "Your Website Is So Enjoyable That It Is Keeping Me From My Research As I Am So Excited That I Have Found Such a Valuable Resource."





    Stuart, a PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "What We're Talking About Here Really
    ...Is Empowerment."






    Motley Fool Poster

  • "The Return Predictor Is Based upon the Principle that Over the Long Term, Stock Market Prices Will Reflect the Ten-Years Earnings Growth of the Underlying Companies. Prices Return to a Common Growth Pattern."




    Links.com Review of The Stock-Return Predictor

  • "Rob’s Arguments in Favor of Value Investing Actually Make a Lot of Sense In a Way That Should Make Any Rational Buy-and-Holder Uncomfortable."





    Pop Economics Blog

  • "What I Don't Understand Is How Rob Can Correspond in Such a Sweet and Polite Way
    -- Yet He Irritates Me to No End!"





    Financial WebRing Forum Poster

  • "You Go About It in a Manner that is Catastrophically Unproductive by Adding Missionary Zeal that Inflates Your Importance and Demeans Others. The Whole Idea That There is a New School of Safe Withdrawal Rates Reeks of Personal Aggrandizement."



    Scott Burns, Dallas Morning News

  • "Inflammatory."







    Morningstar.com Site Administrator

  • “What Warren Buffett Did Was Essentially Quite Close to What Rob Bennett Has Written. Buffett Has in Fact Been Cleverly Incorporating Long-Term Market Timing Based on Valuation of the Market in His Allocation of Money to Stocks.”



    Investor Notes Blog

  • "This Report Offers A Fresh Perspective That Is Rarely Found In Other Financial Literature."






    Secrets of Retiring Early Reader

  • "Rob Bennett Says That Market Timing Based on Aggregate P/E Ratios Can Be a Far More Effective Strategy. This Claim Is Consistent With Shiller's Analysis and I Can See How It Might Be So."




    Rajiv Sethi, Economics Professor at Columbia Univeristy

  • "Retiring Early Was A Concept I Did Not Entertain. I Was Going to Retire at 65 After Putting in 40 Years. Now I Am Glad To Say That All That Has Changed."





    Secrets of Retiring Early Reader

  • "In a Couple of Days, I Had
    Devoured the Entire Book."






    Reader of Rob's Book

  • "FIRECalc May Not Be the Last Word
    on Safe Withdrawal Rates."






    Jonathan Clements, Wall Street Journal

  • "It Seems to Me That Some on This Board Feel Threatened by the Arrival of Rob and His Ideas. They Feel a Threat to Their Perceived Elite Status."





    Motley Fool Poster

  • "You've Got to Say One Thing for Rob. He Has NEVER Lowered Himself to Ad Hominen Attacks -- Subliminal or Otherwise -- on Any Other Person on This Board. Not Once. Ever. At Least Give Him Credit for That."




    Motley Fool Poster

  • "I Have Never Seen Rob Show Incivility. No Matter What. Truly Amazing. Either He Is Really the Output of an Artificial Intelligence Program, or the Man's on the Way to Becoming a Saint!"




    Early Retirement Forum Poster

  • "You're the Politest Guy on the Internet.
    Such a Soft Touch!"






    Jonathan Lewis

  • "Props for Keeping Your Cool in the Married with Debt Article. Best of Luck Combating Buy-and-Hold."






    Money Mamba Blogger

  • "I Caught Up [at the Financial Bloggers Conference] With a Fairly Controversial Financial Blogger
    Named Rob Bennett, Who Struck Me As the
    Nicest Guy Around. There -- I Said It!"




    Digerati Life Blogger

  • "In Rob Bennett's Case, He Was Banned for No Known Listed Forum Policy. Except His Viewpoint Was Different From Other Bogleheads and [He Was Perceived As] a Threat."




    Investor Junkie Blog

  • "Mr. Bennett, You Are Spot on About Integrating Some Type of Valuation Filter to One's Stock Allocation. Astute Investors Have Incorporated Some Type of 'Valuation Timing' Into Their Investment Decisions Since the Beginning of Time."



    Poster at the Psy Fi Blog

  • "His Insights Into What Is Really Going On In The Stock Market Are Quite Compelling."






    Future Storm Blog

  • "It Was an Epiphany...Valuation-Informed Indexing Beats Buy-and-Hold Over Most Long-Term Holding Periods at Much Lower Volatility."





    Sam, a PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "I Am Intrigued By Your Ideas."







    Adam Butler, Portfolio Manager

  • "I Read the Book and I Loved It.
    The Philosophy Resonated with Me.
    I Am a Believer in Your Concept."





    Dr. Peter Weiss, Author of More Health, Less Care

  • "If Your Investment Ideas Can Do for Investing
    What Weston Price’s Ideas Did for Food,
    You’ve Got Our Attention."





    End Times Hoax Blog

  • "I Have Looked at His Website and Reviewed His Research and Find It Both Compelling and Completely Logical and Common-Sense-Based."





    Poster at Free Money Finance Blog

  • "If Investors Paid More Attention to Valuations, We Would Have Fewer Boom-and-Bust Cycles. The Investing Institutions Are Definitely Going to Avoid It Because It Affects Their Income."




    Hope to Prosper Blog

  • "The Calculators on Your Site Are Great Resources. It Amazes Me How So Many People Can Say 'Valuations Matter' Yet, in the Next Breath, They'll Say That We Should Ignore Valuations."




    John Marlowe, Logistics Analyst at Hess Corporation

  • "Must Read As Per My Viewpoint
    For All Value Seekers."






    Ajit Vakil, Value Investing Congress

  • "His Approach Is Both Mathematically Rigorous
    and Easy to Understand."






    Online Investing AI Blog

  • "There Is Nothing More Doubtful of Success Than a New System. The Initiator Has the Enmity of All Who Profit By Preservation of the Old Institution and Merely Lukewarm Defenders in Those Who Gain By the New One."




    Machiavelli

  • "Difficult Subjects Can Be Explained to the Most Slow-Witted Man If He Has Not Formed Any Idea of Them. But the Simplest Thing Cannot Be Made Clear to the Most Intelligent Man If He Believes He Knows Already What Is Laid Before Him."



    Tolstoy

  • "I Am Not Afraid. I Was Born to Do This."







    Joan of Arc

  • "I Certainly Have Seen the Academic Profession Squelching Unfashionable ideas and Have Often Been on the Wrong Side of It. Kuhn Shows How Most Pathbreaking Scientific Ideas Are Rejected at First, Usually for Decades.”




    Carol Osler, Brandeis International Business School

  • "First They Ignore You, Then They Ridicule You, Then They Fight You, Then You Win."






    Ghandi

  • "We Cannot Assume the Existence of Predictability Just Because There Are No Studies That Fully Reject It."






    Valeriy Zakamulin, Economics Professor

  • "I Am Also Extremely Grateful to Rob Bennett for Motivating This Topic and Contributing His Experience and Encouragement."





    Wade Pfau, Academic Researcher

  • "Rob Bennett Was an Early Pioneer in 3rd Generation Modeling by Advocating (Through Various Online Forums) that Withdrawal Rates Must Be Adjusted for Market Valuations Consistent with Research by Campbell and Shiller."



    Todd Tresidder, Financial Mentor Blog

  • "I Am Fascinated by the Growing Body of Research that Revolves Around the P/E10 Ratio by Robert Shiller, Doug Short, Wade Pfau, Michael Kitces, John Hussman, Crestmont Research, Jim Otar, Mike Philbrick, Adam Butler & Rob Bennett."



    Kay Conheady in Advisor Perspectives

  • "Rob Is an Enigma in the Personal Finance World. He Has Interesting Theories on Investing Based on Market Valuations. But He Weaves a Tale Which Makes the Stories of Alexander Litvinenko & Gareth Williams Seem Tame by Comparison."



    Don't Quit Your Day Job Blog

  • "In Recent Years, the 4 Percent Rule
    Has Been Thrown Into Doubt."






    The Wall Street Journal

  • "A Safe Withdrawal Rate Is Very Dependent
    on the Valuation of the Stockmarket
    at the Retirement Date."





    Economist Magazine

  • "I Have Read Everything I Can About Valuation-Informed Indexing. Buy-and-Hold Is Extremely Problematic. I Respect the Passion, Hard Work and Research That You Have Put Into This Very Important Issue. Your Work Has Huge Value."



    Carl Richards, Owner of Clearwater Asset Management

  • "The World of Personal Finance Blogging Needs More Rob Bennetts. He’s Passionate. He’s Intelligent. He’s Writing Things That Go Against the Grain."





    Financial Uproar Blog

  • "Beyond Awesome."







    Larry, a PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "The Wealth Management Industry Seems Intent on Containing This Discussion for Fear Clients Might Discover that the Emperor Has No Clothes."





    Adam Butler, Portfolio Manager

  • "Recommended Reading."







    Jesse's Cafe Americain Blog

  • “All Who Are Still Holding Equities at Present Levels Because Their Financial Adviser Insists that Timing Market Cycles Is Impossible to Do -- Read This!"





    Juggling Dynamite Blog

  • "The Fact that Aggressive and Short-Term Market Timing Was Unproductive Did Not Mean That There Were Never Times When It Would Be Wealth-Maximizing to Get Out of the Market."



    Scott Burris,Director of the Center for
    Health Law, Policy and Practice

  • "The Amount of Return You Can Expect From a Diversified Equity Portfolio Is Inversely Correlated to the Market Valuation at the Start of the Holding Period. It Is One of the Most Robust Statistical Relationships in Modern Finance."




    Todd Tresidder, Financial Mentor Blog

  • "Why Would Your Job Be Jeopardized
    By Such a Sensible Claim?"





    Marcelle Chauvet, Econmics Professor
    at University of California

  • "Received Worrisome E-Mail from Rob Bennett. Warns of Risk with Buy-and-Hold Investing
    -- I Have No Clue."





    Vivek Wadhaw, Business Week Columnist

  • "As Attorney, Tax Expert and Financial Writer Rob Bennett Told Us, the Problem Is That, By the Time Shiller Published His Research, Many Big Names Had Already Endorsed Buy-and-Hold."




    ZeroHedge.com

  • "This Seems to Me to Be a Fundamental Challenge to Some of the Most Basic Tenets of the Boglehead Paradigm."






    Bogleheads Forum Poster

  • "You Want to be Very, Very Wary of Anything Connected with Rob Bennett, the Most Infamous Troll in the History of Investing Forums on the Internet."





    Alex Fract, Owner of Bogleheads Forum

  • “I’ve Had My Fill of Those Long-Winded Posts that Include Distortions, Unsubstantiated Claims, Misquotes and Comments Taken Out of Context.”




    Mel Lindauer, Co-Author of
    The Bogleheads Guide to Investing

  • "Haven't You Noticed Yet That NO ONE Discusses Your Ideas, NO ONE Mentions Your Name, NO ONE Goes To Your Web Site."





    One of the Greaney Goons

  • "I've Had Similar Experiences. I Know of Two Young Professors Who Wanted to Do Research on Fundamental Index and Reported to Me That Their Colleagues Advised Them That This Line of Research Could Derail Their Career Prospects."



    Rob Arnott, Financial Analysts Journal Editor

  • "As with Drug Studies Funded by Drug Companies, It Would Be Churlish to Suppose that the Chicago School of Business Was in the Bag. But It Would Also Be Idealistic to Assume That There Was No Funding Bias at All."




    Bogleheads Poster

  • "This Sort of Intimidation Is Not Acceptable. The Cigarette and Pharmaceutical Industries Found Research Supporting Their Products By Funding It. But That Was Big Money Supporting Outcomes, Not Dissuading Others."




    Lyn Graham, 25-Year CPA

  • "Financial Economists Gave Little Warning to the Public About the Fragility of Their Models. There Is No Ethical Code for Professional Economic Scientists. There Should Be One."



    Paper Titled The Financial Crisis and
    the Systemic Failure of Academic Economics

  • "The Situation [Referring to the Intimidation Tactics Used to Silence Academic Researcher Wade Pfau's Reporting of the Dangers of Buy-and-Hold Investing Strategies] Seems Well Below Any Professional and Academic Acceptable Standards."



    Albert Sanchez Graells, Law Lecturer

  • Many Academics Can Become Quite Strident When Their Views Are Challenged. Academia Is Often Subject to Self-Serving Bias That Obliterates Ethical Bounds."





    Ted Sichelman, Law Professor

  • "I Don't Like Too Much the Conspiracy Idea. I Am Not Pressured By Anyone in My Research."






    Roberto Reno, Economics Professor

  • "This Is What Investing Should Be -- Calculated, Deliberate, Confident, Informed and Simple."






    Aaron Friday, Owner of Aaron's Blob Blog

  • "It Is Obvious that Rob, in Attempting to Identify New Safe Withdrawal Rate Strategies...Is Goring Your Ox. If Rob Improves on [the] Safe Withdrawal Rate Methodology, the Implication Is Clear: You Are All, Metaphorically, Out of Business."



    Bogleheads Poster

  • "I Applaud His Effort to Inject Another Piece of Objectivity Into a Very Complex, Highly Subjective Topic -- Making Money in the Market."





    Bogleheads Poster

  • "Naturally, I Am Finding That Valuation-Informed Indexing Can Allow You to Reach a Wealth Target With a Lower Saving Rate and to Use a Higher Withdrawal Rate in Retirement Than You Could With a Fixed Allocation."



    Wade Pfau, Professor of Retirement Income
    at The American College

  • "A Careful Examination of Past Returns Can Establish Some Probabilities About the Prospective Parameters of Return, Offering Intelligent Investors a Basis for Rational Expectations About Future Returns."




    Jack Bogle, Founder of Vanguard Funds

  • "The Ability to Estimate the Long-Term Future Returns of the Major Asset Classes Is Perhaps the Most Important Investment Skill That An Indivisual Can Possess."




    William Bernstein, Author of The Four Pillars of Investing

  • "The Stock Market Resembles Roulette. In Both Cases, the Accuracy of Sensible Forecasts Rises Over Time."






    Andrew Smithers, Co-Author of Valuing Wall Street

  • "Returns Are for the Most Part a Matter of Simple Arithmetic...Much of Our Industry Seems Fearful of Basic Arithmetic of This Sort."





    Rob Arnott, Financial Analysts Journal Editor

  • "How Can It Be That One-Year Returns Are So Apparantly Random and Yet Ten-Year Returns Are Mostly Forecastable? In Looking at One-Year Returns, One Sees a Lot of Noise. But Over Longer Time Intervals the Noise Effectively Averages Out and Is Less Important."




    Yale Economics Professor Robert Shiller

  • "The Notion That Rich Valuations Will Not Be Followed By Sub-Par Long-Term Returns Is a Speculative Idea That Runs Counter to All Historical Evidence. It Is an Iron Law of Finance That Valuations Drive Long-Term Returns."




    John Hussman

  • "It's January and the Temperature Is Below Freezing. If You Asked Me Whether It Will be Warmer or Cooler Next Tuesday, I Would Be Unable to Say. However, If You Asked Me What Temperature to Expect on April 9, I Could Predict "Warmer Than Today" and Almost Surely Be Right."



    Michael Alexanfer, Author of Stock Cycles

  • "If the Response Is "Who Knew?", It Won't Be Much Comfort for Retirees in the Employment Line at Wal-Mart. This is Especially True Since a Rational Understanding of History and the Drivers of Longer-Term Stock Returns Can Help Retirees To Avoid That Surprise."




    Ed Easterling, Author of Unexpected Returns

  • "New of the Demise of the Random Walk Has Only Very Slowly Spread, In Part Because Its Overthrow Came as a Shock. If the Random Walk Hypothesis Were Correct, the Most Likely Return Would Be the Historic Average Return. The Evidence, However, Is Strongly Against This."



    Andrew Smithers, Co-Author of Valuing Wall Street

  • "I Don't Think We Can Debate the Merits of This Type of Forecasting [Referring to the Numbers Generated by The Stock-Return Predictor] Unless We Believe 'This Time It's Different.'"



    Poster at Bogleheads Forum
    (Before the Ban on Honest Posting Was Adopted There)

  • "I've Seen Absolutely Nothing From You That I Can Use in a Tangible Fashion to Formulate an Investment Plan. Your Ideas Are So Mushy That It's a Complete Waste of Time to Even Consider Them."




    Bogleheads Forum Poster

  • "Do You Really Think Your Tool
    [The Stock-Return Predictor]
    Is 'Wiser' Than the Market?
    If It Was That Easy,
    Everybody Would Be Doing It."



    Bogleheads Forum Poster

  • "The Expected Return of Stocks [As Reported By The Stock-Return Predictor] Needs To Be At Least the Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) Rate for Stock Investing To Make Sense."




    Bogleheads Forum Poster

  • "I Have Used Valuations to Adjust My Asset Allocation For Many Years With Very Favorable Results."





    Poster at Bogleheads Forum
    (Prior to the Ban on Honest Posting)

  • "I Don't Care If You Do or Don't Believe That the Market Will Behave Similarly in the Future As It Has in the Past. Either Way, This [The Stock-Return Predictor] Is an Excellent Way to Understand What the Market Has Done In the Past."


    Poster at Bogleheads Forum
    [Prior to the Ban on Honest Posting]

  • "My Role Is To Give People Who Don't Like What the Historical Stock-Return Data Says About the Effect of Valuations on Long-Term Returns Somebody To Yell At On Internet Discussion Boards."



    Rob Bennett at Bogleheads Forum
    (Prior to the Ban on Honest Posting)

  • "It Really Is a Shame and Indefensible That So Many Feel the Need to Jump Into It With No Interest of Posting on the Topic But Just to Disrupt. Are You That Insecure? Some on the Forum Have an Interest in This Topic. If You Don't, Stay Out!"



    Poster at Bogleheads Forum
    [Prior to the Ban on Honest Posting]

  • "Irrational Behavior Does Follow Patterns. But How Many Experts in Behavioral Finance Believe That Such Knowledge Can Be Used to Predict Markets? Basically, None. Your Model Cannot Attain the Level of Predictive Value You Claim."



    Poster at Bogleheads Forum
    [Prior to the Ban on Honest Posting]

  • "The Safe Withdrawal Rate Studies Are Based on History. This [The Retirement Risk Evaluator] Shows, Based on the Same History, What the Probabilities Are for the Future at Various Starting Points. If the First Has Value, Then Surely This Does Too."



    Poster at Bogleheads Forum

  • "There Are Hundreds of People Who Contributed to This. This Calculator [The Stock-Return Predictor] Demonstrates in a Compelling Way the Power of This New Internet Discussion-Board Communications Medium."




    Rob Bennett at the Bogleheads Forum
    (Prior to the Ban on Honest Posting)

  • "A P/E10 of'26' Is Bad. Now Look at the 30-Year Return Predicted by the Calculator -- 5.4 Percent Real. That's Not Bad. There Are All Sorts of Strategic Implications That Follow From Understanding That Stocks Provide Different Sorts of Returns Over Different Sorts of Time-Periods."




    Rob Bennett

  • "I Would Never Invest in Anything Without Having Any Idea What the Expected Return Is. For Instance, I Would Not Walk Into a Bank And Say "I'll Take One Certificate of Deposit, Please" WIthout Asking What Rate They Are Offering."



    Poster at Bogleheads Forum
    [Prior to the Ban on Honest Posting]

  • "I've Seen Things Said on Investing Boards That I Have Never Heard Said in Discussions of Any Non-Investing Topic. The Question of Whether Valuations Affect Long-Term Returns Is a Topic That Causes People More Emotional Angst Than Does Abortion or Impeachment Proceedings or the War in Iraq."



    Rob Bennett at the Bogleheads Forum

  • "It's Not Possible For Those Who Have Come to Believe That Stocks Are Always Best to Accept that Valuations Matter. The Two Beliefs Are Mutually Exclusive. If Valuations Matter, There Is Obviously Some Valuation Level At Which Stocks Are Not Best. The Two Paradigms Cannot Be Reconciled."


    Rob Bennett

  • "The Great Safe Withdrawal Rate Is Over. Rob Bennett Has Won.The Technical Evidence Supporting This Assertion Is Rock Solid."




    John Walter Russell,
    Owner of the Early Retirement Planning Insights Site
    [This Statement Was Put Forward on August 3, 2003.]

  • "I Am Afraid that the Emperor SWR [for "Safe Withdrawal Rate"] Has No Clothes."





    A Poster at the Early Retirement Forum
    [This Statement Was Put Forward on October 8, 2003.]

  • "I Cite You and John Walter Russell in My Paper as the Earliest and Strongest Advocates of This Approach [New School Safe Withdrawal Rate Research]."




    Wade Pfau, Professor of Retirement Income
    at The American College

  • "Dear Rob -- I Just Became Aware of Your Past Research in September. Since Then, I've Read Archives From Many Discussion Boards and Websites, and I Always Find Your Writing to Be Very Interesting and Intriguing."



    Wade Pfau, Professor of Retirement Income
    at The American College

  • "I Think Rob Bennett Did Provide An Important Contribution in Terms of Describing a Way for P/E10 to Guide Asset Allocation for Long-Term Conservative Investors. I Also Think He Was Right on the Issue of Safe Withdrawal Rates."


    Wade Pfau, Professor of Retirement Income
    at The American College

  • "What Studies Show This [That Long-Term Timing Doesn't Work]? In Particular, Are There Some Academic Studies That I Haven't Found Yet? That's All I Want to Know."




    Academic Researcher Wade Pfau at the Bogleheads Forum After His Own Search of the Literature Turned Up Not a Single Such Study

  • "Because the Precise Timing of This Mean Reversion Is Not Known in Advance, Expecting the Result to Happen in the Short-Term Will Not Be Possible. But Long-Term Investors Who Can Be Patient Can Wait for This Mean Reversion and Will Eventually Come Out Ahead."




    Academic Researcher Wade Pfau

  • "Your Work Is at Odds with the Ethos of the Board -- Here the Theme is John Bogle's Philosophy, Which Eschews Market Timing. This Board Came Into Existence to ESCAPE One Individual, the Very Individual With Whom You Have Openly Aligned Yourself."




    A Lindaurhead (to Researcher Wade Pfau)

  • "The Problem With Long-Term Market Timing Is That It Takes Too Long to Find Out If You Are Right or Wrong."






    A Poster at the Bogleheads Forum

  • "Why Is It Such an Odious Violation of the Tenets of Bogleheadism to Explore Whether Someone Who Has Enough Patience Might Be Able to Benefit from the Transitory Nature of Speculative Returns (the Idea That the P/E Ratio Eventually Ends Up Where It Started)?"




    A Poster at the Bogleheads Forum

  • "Let Me Explain Why I Posted About This Here. Valuation-Informed Indexing Has Had Critics for Years. But Until Norbert Did It In 2008, Nobody Seemed to Have Provided a Serious Investigation of It. I Couldn't Understand Why. That Bothered Me."



    Researcher Wade Pfau at the Bogleheads Forum
    (Prior to the Ban on Honest Posting)

  • "If You Really Don't Like Market Timing in Any and All Forms, You May Not See Any Point in an Empirical Investigation. You View Me as One of a Long Line of Hucksters Trying to Sell You Some Snake Oil. I Don't Want to Be Such a Person."



    Researcher Wade Pfau at the Bogleheads Forum
    (Prior to the Ban on Honest Posting)

  • "Having a Completely Ineleastic Demand for Equities Is a Bit Bonkers. No One Acts That Way with Life's Other Important Commodities. Campbell Advocates a Linear Valuations-Based Strategy so That You Wouldn't Be Making Big Changes. This Would Be Like Rebalancing But More Flexible."



    A Poster at the Bogleheads Forum

  • "The Whole Idea of Valuation-Informed Indexing Belongs to You. Do You Mind if I call the Paper 'Valuation-Informed Indexing'? I Would Give You Credit. I Have Been Toying With the Idea of Sending the Paper to the Journal of Finance, Which Is the Most Prestigious Journal in Academic Finance."


    Academic Researcher Wade Pfau, in an E-Mail to Rob

  • "I Definitely Need to Cite You as the Founder of Valuation-Informed Indexing, As I Have Not Found Anyone Else Who Can Lay Claim to That. Shiller Pointed Out the Predictive Power of P/E10 But Never Discussed How to Incorporate It Into Asset Allocation, As Far As I Know."




    Academic Researcher Wade Pfau

  • "I Tested a Wide Variety of Assumptions About Asset Allocation, Valuation-Based Decision Rules, Whether the Period Is 10, 20, 30 or 40 Years, and Lump-Sum vs. Dollar-Cost Averaging To Show That the Results Are Quite Robust to Changes In Any of These Assumptions."




    Academic Researcher Wade Pfau

  • "Yes, Virginia, Valuation-Informed Indexing Works!"




    Academic Researcher Wade Pfau
    (Wade Holds a Ph.D. in Economics from Princeton.)
    (The Buy-and-Hold Mafia Threatened to Get Wade Fired From His Job When He Reported His Findings.)

  • "I Wrote Up the Programs to Test Your Valuation-Informed Indexing Strategies Against Buy-and-Hold and I Am Quite Excited. You Say in the RobCast That VII Should Beat Buy-and-Hold About 90 Percent of the Time. I Am Getting Results That Support This."




    Academic Researcher Wade Pfau

  • "Never Underestimate the Power of a Dominant Academic Idea to Choke Off Competing Ideas, and Never Underestimate the Unwillingness of Academics to Change Their Views in the Face of Evidence. They Have Decades of Their Research and Academic Standing to Defend."




    Jeremy Grantham

  • "There's So Much That's False and Nutty
    in Modern Investing Practice."






    Warren Buffett

  • "Following Conventional Wisdom Has Led a Generation of Investors Down the Road to Ruin."






    Steve Hanke

  • "It Is Sad That the Idea That Price Doesn't Matter...Should Ever Have Been Seriously Considered".






    Andrew Smithers, Co-Author of Valuing Wall Street

  • "The Conventional Wisdom of Modern Investing Is Largely Myth and Urban Legend."





    Rob Arnott, Former Editor of
    Fianncial Analysts Journal

  • "Economics Is a Dog's Breakfast of Theoretical Ideas and Alleged Causal Relationships That Are At All Times Unproven and In Dispute."





    Terence Corcoran, Editor of National Post

  • "Since They Did Not Diagnose the Disease, There Is Little Popular Confidence That They Know the Cure. What If Economics Is, Actually, At the Same Level as Medicine Was When Doctors Still Believed in the Application of Leeches?"




    Gideon Rachman, Financial Times

  • "One of the Most Remarkable Errors
    in the History of Economics."



    Yale Economics Professor Robert Shiller
    (Referring to the Logical Leap from the Finding That Short-Term Price Changes Are Unpredictable to the Conclusion That the Market Sets Prices Properly)

  • "Everything Has Fallen Apart."






    Peter Bernstein, Author of Against the Gods
    (Referring to Old Views About How Markets Work)

  • "We Wonder Why Funds and Banks, Full of the Best and Brightest, Have Made Such a Mess of Things. Part of the Reason Is That We Have Taught Economic Nonsense to Two Generations of Students."




    John Mauldin, Thoughts From the Frontline

  • "Perhaps Most Scandalously, the Theory [Behind Buy-and-Hold] Remained Received Wisdom Long After Empirical and Theoretical Arguments Had Demolished It Within the Academic Community."




    John Authers, Financial Times

  • "I Love the Humans Dearly (the Title of the Book I Am Writing Is Investing for Humans: How to Get What Works on Paper to Work in Real Life) But They Can Be a Trial at Times. Hey! Helping the Humans Learn What It Takes to Invest Effectively Is Not All That Different From Being Married!



    Rob Bennett

  • "We Are Going to See Hearts Melt Following the Next Crash. I Will Be Working Side-By-Side With All of My Many Buy-and-Hold Friends to Rebuild Our Broken Economy."





    Rob Bennett

  • "Wow, I Did Not Realize You Had Achieved This Much Success and Had Many Devoted Believers/Followers. That’s Great, Then Ignore the Opposition. It Is Great to Have Opposition: That Means You Are Doing Something Right."




    Robert Savickas, Associate Finance Professor
    at George Washington University

  • "I Do NOT Believe I Know It All. I Believe That Shiller Discovered Something Very Important and It Appalls Me That More People Are Not Exploring the Implications of His Findings. My Aim Is To Launch a National Debate."




    Rob Bennett

  • "I Can See How Many Readers Would Be Put Off by the Somewhat Sensational/Scandalist Tone and Would Not Persevere to Read, Thinking You Are Losing Your Mind."




    Robert Savickas, Associate Finance Professor
    at George Washington University

  • "I LOVE Everything About Buy-and-Hold Other Than the Failure to Encourage Investors to Take Price Into Consideration When Setting Their Stock Allocations. That's a Mistake That Was Made Because Shiller’s Research Was Not Available at the Time The Strategy Was Being Developed."



    Rob Bennett

  • "Valuation-Informed Indexing Sounds Like a Real Thing. If It Is and I Can Thoroughly Understand It, Then It Will End Up In My Classrooms and in My Students' Minds (Of Course, With References to You and Wade)."




    Robert Savickas, Associate Finance Professor
    at George Washington University

  • "I Can Confirm Wade Pfau's Experience. Whenever I Send My Papers to the Financial Analysts Journal or Similar Traditional Journals, I Get Rejected."





    Joachim Klement, CIO at Wellershoff & Partners

  • "As a Fan of Thomas Kuhn's The Structure of Scientific Revolutions, I Know That Progress Can Be Frustratingly Slow and What Is Typically Needed Is Either a Crisis or the Ascent of a New Generation of Scientists Who Did Not Build Their Careers on the Old Models and Theories."




    Joachim Klement, CIO at Wellershoff & Partners

  • "We Trace the Deeper Roots [of the Financial Crisis] to the Economics' Profession's Insistence on Constructing Models That, By Design, Disregard the Key Elements Driving Outcomes in Real World Markets."




    Knowledge@Wharton

  • "Rob Gets Himself So Worked Up Over What Someone Else Is Doing With Their Own Money and Not Bothering Rob in the Least. As Long As They Aren't Knocking on Your Basement Door, What Do You Care? They Are Happy and Content. Leave Well Enough Alone and Focus on Your Own Account."


    Dab, One of the Greaney Goons

  • "I've Been on Forum Since the BBS Days and I Think Rob is Special. He Could Be an Internet Meme If He Put Some Effort Into It. Someday, He Will Realize That the Only Thing He's Good At Is Being an Epic Loser. He Just Needs to Embrace That Idea and Run With It. Watch Out, LOLCats, Here Comes Pathetic Guy!"


    Wabmaster, One of the Greaney Goons

  • "Your Lies Are Not Even in the Realm of the Possible, Much Less Actually Credible, Much Less Actually True."






    Drip Guy, One of the Greaney Goons

  • "I'm Your Friend. I Am Not a Boil on Your Ass."






    Rob Bennett, In a Response Comment
    to One of the Greaney Goons

  • "You Guys [the Greaney Goons] Are the Same Jokers Who Have Done This Before, Sparring with Rob Over Nonsensical Issues On This Site and Others, Leveling Personal Attacks, and You Don't Even Use Real Names! Rob Is Entitled to His Opinion, But the Fact That You Challenge Every Jot and Tittle of What He Says Makes It Clear You Have An Unholy Agenda. Please Take It Elsehwere."

    Kevin Mercadante,
    Owner of the Out of Your Rut Site

  • "Rob, Take This As Friendly Advice. You're a Smart and Articulate Guy and You Could Be Making Valuable Contributions to This Discussion. I've Dealt with the Mentally Ill Before and I've Found That They Sometimes Can Be Reasonable If Gently Redirected."



    Goon Poster

  • "Always Remember Others May Hate You, But Those Who Hate You Don't Win Unless You Hate Them, and Then You Destroy Yourself."





    Richard Nixon

  • "I’m a Numbers Guy. And I Believe I Understand Rob’s Thesis, that Future Returns, Over the Next Decade, Have a Tight Inverse Correlation to the PE10 for the Starting Point. Remember, Correlation Doesn’t Need to be 100%, Only That There’s a Bell Curve of Potential Outcomes that Shift Meaningfully Based on the Input."


    Owner of Joe Taxpayer Blog

  • "What a Difference a Threat to Get the Father of Two Small Children Fired From His Job Has on an Investing Discussion, Eh? Long Live Buy-and-Hold! It’s Science! With a Marketing Twist!"




    Rob, Referring to the Wade Pfau Matter

  • "I Respect Rob and His Analysis. He's Bright, Energetic and Passionate. [The Goon Stuff] Is Really Nonsense. I Enjoy a Thought-Provoking Conversation With People I Respect."





    Owner of Joe Taxpayer Blog

  • "The Fact that Shiller is a Proponent of the Approach Takes it from a Fringe View to Mainstream, in my Opinion."






    Owner of Joe Taxpayer Blog

  • "I Have had Academic Researchers Tell Me That They Dream of the Day When They Will be Able to do Honest Research Once Again. I Have had Investment Advisors Tell me That They Dream of the Day When They Will be Able to Give Honest Investing Advice Again."



    Rob Bennett

  • "Let’s Call a Spade a Spade, Shall We? Wade Pfau Stole Your Research and Put His Name on it, Throwing You Just a Tiny Crumb of Acknowledgement to Ward Off a Lawsuit. He’s Profiting Handsomely By His Theft, Leading a Charmed Life, Widely Published, Widely Respected. While Rob Bennett Continues to Toil in Total Obscurity. It’s So Incredibly Unfair, I Think If It Happened to Me, It Could Actually Drive Me Insane."

    One of the Greaney Goons

  • About Us
    • Rob’s Bio
    • Rob’s Bio
    • Contact Rob
    • Rob’s Book
    • Don’t Sue Me!
  • Blog
  • Passion Saving
    • 20 Dangerous Money Myths — They Think We’re Stupid!
    • 10 Unconventional Money Saving Tips
    • Why Your Money or Your Life Rocked the World
    • This Book Saves Marriages — The Complete Tightwad Gazette
    • How to Start Saving Money
  • Valuation-Informed Indexing
    • Why Buy-and-Hold Investing Can Never Work
    • About Valuation-Informed Indexing
    • The Stock-Return Predictor
    • The Retirement Risk Evaluator
    • The Investor’s Scenario Surfer
    • The Investment Strategy Tester
    • The Returns Sequence Reality Checker
    • Nine Valuation-Informed-Indexing Portfolio Allocation Strategies
  • The Buy-and-Hold Crisis
    • Academic Researcher Silenced by Threats to Get Him Fired From His Job After Showing Dangers of Buy-and-Hold Investing Strategies
    • Academic Researcher Silenced By Threats to Get Him Fired From His Job After Showing Dangers of Buy-and-Hold Investing Strategies — Teaser Version
    • Corruption in the Investing Advice Field — The Wade Pfau Story
    • The Bennett/Pfau Research Showing Middle-Class Investors How to Reduce the Risk of Stock Investing by 70 Percent
    • Buy-and-Hold Caused the Economic Crisis
    • The True Cause of the Current Financial Crisis — Questions and Answers
    • Investing Discussion Boards Ban Honest Posting on Valuations
    • Wall Street Journal Calls Buy-and-Hold a “Myth,” Endorses Valuation-Informed Indexing

“If We Can Get a Small Group of Independent Bloggers Writing About These Ideas, They Will Spread. Lots of the Big Names in This Field Want to Feel Free to Tell Their Clients What Really Works. But They Are Afraid. They Need Cover. The More People Who Speak the Truth Openly, the Less Afraid All the Others Who Want To Do So Feel. So This Thing Will Gain Momentum Fast Once We Get the Fire Started.”

June 10, 2016 by Rob

Set forth below is the text of correspondence that I engaged in with Jeff, owner of the Sustainable Life Blog, on October 6, 2013:

Hi Rob,

I just wanted to drop you a quick line and say how nice it was meeting you at fincon in St Louis this year. I don’t know about you, but I had such a great time hearing from all the speakers and meeting online friends (some for the first time).

It was great meeting you at Ignite Fincon and chatting with you about Value Index Investing. I thought it was really interesting, and I’d really like to know how you got started with Value Index Investing and what you enjoy most about it. I had such a great time meeting and talking to so many different people, I didn’t get much time to focus on the most interesting parts – like why they do what they do!

I remember that we chatted a bit about being the most hated guy on investing forums and branding it as well. That was really great to hear about, and I think it’s so funny that people get so angry at you for those comments you left. Glad that you were basically proven right by the downturn though.

Please, don’t hesitate to email me if you’ve got any questions or need help with anything. I’ve been blogging for almost 5 years, and love to help out anyone that asks!

Once again, it was great meeting you..

Jeff

Jeff:

That’s super kind! Seeing your e-mail brought a nice measure of good cheer to my Saturday afternoon.

I got started with Valuation-Informed Indexing when I was putting together an early retirement plan in the late 1990s (I left corporate employment in August 2000 and our family of four has been living off our investments for the 13 years since). When you are handing in a resignation from a big-paycheck job (I was a Director at the Ernst & Young accounting firm), you need to be SURE that you have enough to make it on your own.  So I investigated a concept called “Safe Withdrawal Rates.”

I discovered (ironically enough, I discovered this by reading John Bogle’s book — this is ironic because Bogle is the lead advocate of Buy-ad-Hold, the strategy that VII replaces) that the conventional SWR studies get the numbers wrong (they fail to consider the effect of valuations). I was posting daily at a Retire Early board at Motley Fool and a retired government engineer there named John Walter Russell became interested enough in what I was saying to spend the next eight years of his life researching questions related to VII. John did HUNDREDS of studies backing all this up and published them at his own site. John died a few years ago and the right to publish all his research passed to me.

At some point, I started posting at the Vanguard Diehards board at Morningstar.com. An academic researcher (Wade Pfau — he has a Ph.D. in Economics from Princeton) discovered my posts and wrote me to ask if I would be interested in doing some research with him. Our paper has been published in a peer-reviewed journal. I believe that it is the most important research published in this field in the past 30 years. It shows investors that simply by taking valuations into consideration when setting their stock allocations they can reduce the risk of stock investing by 70 percent. Once we reach a point where we can publicize these findings,  stocks will become essentially a risk-free investment class. This is a huge deal.

The thing that I like most about VII is not the investing benefits. I have made my living as a journalist pretty much my entire life (I was hired at Ernst & Young as a tax lobbyist because they learned about my work reporting on tax legislation on Capitol Hill — I also hold a law degree and a Masters in Tax Law). So I have a strong interest in public policy issues. VII is rooted in the research of Yale Economics Professor Robert Shiller (who won the Nobel prize a week or two ago). Shiller’s findings don’t just make stock investing a risk-free endeavor. They also have huge implications re stabilization of our economic system.

Shiller predicted the 2008 economic crisis in a book published in March 2000. Do you know how he did it?

Shiller’s research shows that EVERY economic crisis in U.S. history was caused by excessive stock valuations. There has never been a single exception. Take away excessive stock valuations and you take away economic crises and all the huge increase in unemployment that always follows from them. Shiller’s work has the greatest potential for easing human suffering of any research being done today. What he has found (and what I have been writing about for 11 years) is the financial sector equivalent of the cure for cancer.

How do we stop stocks from becoming overpriced? It is amazingly easy.

I have a calculator at my site called “The Stock-Return Predictor.” It applies a regression analysis to the 140 years of historical return data to reveal the most likely annualized 10-year return for stock purchases made at any possible price level. It shows that the claim you always hear from Wall Street that “you can’t time the market!” is 100 percent false marketing mumbo jumbo. It has ALWAYS been possible and easy and necessary to time the market. There is a hyper-technical way in which what they say is so. It is NOT possible to engage in short-term market timing (guessing where stock prices will be in a year or so) effectively. However, it is VERY easy to engage in LONG-TERM market timing. You can know today (with a high but not perfect level of accuracy) where stock prices will be 10 years from today. Using the calculator, you can know when stocks are worth buying and when they are not. This permits you to retire as much as 10 years sooner than you ever before imagined possible.

The Stock-Return Predictor reveals the price tag of stocks. Middle-class people who don’t practice long-term timing are essentially making the most important purchase of their lives (we spend more in the course of a lifetime on stocks than we do on clothes or food or housing or cars) without knowing the price! It’s insane. Why do they do it? Every industry that exists would love to have its customers believe that its product is a good buy at any possible price. The Stock-Selling Industry is the only industry that has ever been able to persuade its customers that this is actually so. They get away with it because most investors are intimidated by the subject of investing. They defer to experts. And the experts in this field get paid depending on how effective they are in persuading people to buy stocks. The conflict overwhelms most people’s sense of right and wrong and they rationalize saying all sorts of things that have long been shown to be nonsense by the peer-reviewed academic research.

Once people understand that stocks are not worth buying at high prices, guess what happens? That makes it impossible for high prices ever to be seen again. As prices go up, people sell shares. The sales of the shares pull price down again. If they go too low, people start buying more and that pushes prices up again. Stock prices are self-regulating. So long as people are told about the research!

The trick today is getting the word out about what the research really says. Most of the people who work in this field have built careers around promotion of Buy-and-Hold. There are lots of powerful and wealthy people who very, very much do not want middle-class people to learn about Shiller’s research and its implications. So we face heavy resistance.

But things have changed in a big way since the crash. I couldn’t get a guest blog published anywhere on the internet in the old days. Today there are lots of blogs that welcome me. Shiller’s research shows that there will be another crash in a year or two. I believe that the gates will swing wide open then.

You probably know that many blogs have been hit hard by Google. I believe that VII is going to prove to be the salvation of the Personal Finance Blogosphere. Bloggers are not as beholden to the industry big shots as are most others in this field. We are at least capable of independence. If we can get a small group of independent bloggers writing about these ideas, they will spread and spread and eventually gain recognition everywhere. I have spoken with LOTS of people over these 11 years. Lots of the big names in this field want to feel free to tell their readers and clients what really works in the long run. But they are afraid. They need cover. The more people who speak the truth openly, the less afraid all the others who want to do so feel. So this thing will gain momentum fast once we get the fire started.

Please come back to me and ask questions about this at any time. My site is today the only site on the internet that explores the implications of Shiller’s research in an in-depth way. There is room for hundreds of blogs doing this kind of work. And we would be helping millions of middle-class people by doing it. VII is safe, smart, simple investing. I have had THOUSANDS of people encourage me to pursue this quest. People need this. They need it badly. And the demand is going to go through the roof following the next crash, which is likely coming in not too long a time.

I hope that helps a bit.

Thanks again for your exceedingly king and encouraging note.

Rob

Filed Under: Rob E-Mails Seeking Help

Comments

  1. Evidence Based Investing says

    June 10, 2016 at 1:03 pm

    Will you be heading to FinCon16 in San Diego?

  2. Rob says

    June 10, 2016 at 4:51 pm

    Yes. I signed up at the conclusion of last year’s event.

    Rob

  3. Anonymous says

    June 10, 2016 at 5:47 pm

    Will you be giving the keynote address?

  4. Rob says

    June 10, 2016 at 7:33 pm

    I would be if it were not for you Goons, Anonymous.

    I have had lots of people tell me that they WISH that I were giving it. The fellow who gave the keynote address last year (Carl Richards) told me that he learned more from my web site than from any other web site he has seen. He said that he believes my work has “huge value.” But he is afraid of you Goons; he is especially afraid that Jack Bogle and the other Wall Street Con Men support you Goons. The Wall Street Con Men are powerful people. The fact that they support Goons like you is indeed scary. I can see where these people are coming from.

    These people will work up the courage to stand up to you following the next price crash. That’s what I believe. They don’t yet see how bad things can get when millions of people are denied access to honest and accurate reports of what the last 35 years of peer-reviewed research says. Following the next price crash, they will see. Then they will work up the courage to act. They love their country. So that’s what I believe will happen. We will have to wait to see how it all plays out.

    I’ll let you in on a little secret. I believe that Jack Bogle loves his country. I am personally strongly convinced of this. Jack is going to be helping us all out. That is going to put you Goons in a tough spot.

    I don’t believe that even you Goons have zero love for your country. I believe that a good number of you Goons are going to flip following the next price crash. It will make it even harder for those who don’t to continue their Campaign of Terror against us when you see your long-time supporters flipping to the other side. It can never get better for you Goons. It can only get worse.

    I’ll be the guy trying to put Bogle actions in the best possible light. And I will be putting Mel Lindauer’s actions in the best possible light. And I will be putting John Greaney’s actions in the best possible light. Just as I have been doing for 14 years now.

    I believe that I will be invited to be the keynote for the personal finance bloggers conference at that time. I would have liked it to happen under different circumstances. We shouldn’t have to experience an economic crisis to open up the possibility of millions of middle-class investors learning what the last 35 years of peer-reviewed research says about how stock investing works in the real world. But it happened the way that it happened. I don’t get to say how things happen. I get to say what I do. And I have certainly never regretted the path that I have chosen. I just continue to try to play the cards that I am dealt to the best of my ability. When I am picked to give the keynote, I hope that I make the best of the opportunity and evidence both honesty and charity in my remarks.

    That’s the plan. I won’t be doing the keynote this year. But I will be laying the groundwork for the day when I will be giving the keynote. I will be telling people the true story, not the pack of lies that the Buy-and-Holders put forward. And we will see how the process plays out over time. I will give it my best shot, nothing more and nothing less.

    If I never get to deliver a keynote address, I never get to deliver a keynote address. I don’t think it will play out that way. But no one can ever say for sure. So it could be that it will play out that way. What i know for certain is that I would rather that I never get to deliver the keynote address than that I lie to my friends about the numbers that they use to plan their retirements. I couldn’t live with myself if I joined up with you Goons or supported you in any way. So I won’t go there. I will hope for the best, try to remain optimistic, and trust the people of the country that I love to steer things in a positive direction in time.

    I don’t have too many other options available to me. The full truth is that I don’t have ANY other options available to me.

    Anyway, I naturally wish you all the best things that this life has to offer a person, my old friend.

    Don’t let the bad guys get you down, my man.

    Rob

  5. Anonymous says

    June 11, 2016 at 6:01 am

    “I would be if it were not for you Goons”

    Your answer to so many questions.

    “But I will be laying the groundwork”

    You’ve been laying groundwork for 14 years. Nothing has progressed except your age.

  6. Rob says

    June 11, 2016 at 6:45 pm

    “I would be if it were not for you Goons”

    Your answer to so many questions.

    It’s not just you Goons who don’t like me using the word “Goons” or talking about the Goon phenomenon.

    John Walter Russell spent eight years of his life researching my ideas. He was the biggest supporter that I ever had. But there were several occasions when he chastised me for talking about goonishness. And he never spoke about it himself (except when I brought it up and he felt that he should respond at least briefly).

    Rob Arnott has said tougher things about Buy-and-Hold than anyone but me. But he called me “strident” in one of his e-mails to me while endorsing my ideas on the content side.

    Wade Pfau thought that the research we did together was so important that he might win a Nobel prize for it. He thanked me many times for teaching him things about stock investing that he never learned while earning a Ph.D. in Economics at Princeton. But he was clearly uncomfortable talking about the Goon phenomenon. I would say that it is my unwillingness to back down on the Goon question that is the primary cause of the split that exists between us today.

    Shiller doesn’t talk about Goons. He is the king on valuations. He is the one that kicked this all off. But to my knowledge he has never directly addressed himself to the Goon phenomenon (he has made some indirect, vague references to it).

    Carol Osler wrote an e-mail that I believe evidenced the best combination of intelligence and kindness that I have seen in the writings that I have seen on this subject. But she noted in her comments to me that referring to one’s critics as Goons “is almost never a good idea.”

    My own wife faults me for using the term “Goons.” I dedicated my life to this woman and she has dedicated her life to me. But every now and again she feels the need to get in a little dig at me for my use of the word “Goons” in my writings.

    I stand pretty much alone in my view that the Goon issue is of supreme importance, that it is perhaps the most important public policy issue of our day. I don’t say that you are wrong that some reference to goonishness is my answer to many questions that you raise. And I don’t say that this is by any stretch of the imagination a crowd-pleasing position. But I do not believe that I am wrong re this matter. I do not apologize for having spent a lot of time and energy over the years trying to come to a deeper understanding of what is going on with the Goon matter.

    Please consider what it is that Shiller really did when he in 1981 he discovered that valuations affect long-term returns. This was his “revolutionary” (his word) claim. Why was it such a big deal? Why is it that this finding (which won Shiller the Nobel prize) changed our understanding of how stock investing works in a fundamental way (in my assessment)?

    Our economic system (capitalism) is based on the work of Adam Smith. Adam Smith developed the economic model called “Rational Man Economics.” The Economics discipline as it is practiced today is rooted in a core ASSUMPTION (not something ever proven, just assumed) that human beings pursue their self-interest when making choices about what to buy and what work to do.

    They do not. This core belief is false. Human are highly emotional creatures, not purely rational creatures. Shiller proved this with numbers. If we were rational, the stock market would be efficient. It is not. If we were rational, price changes would play out in the form of a random walk. They do not. Investors are human. Humans are emotional. That’s why Buy-and-Hold doesn’t work. That’s why valuations (which signal how emotional investors are at any given moment in time) affect long-term returns.

    This is the Shiller revolution. This is what I write about.

    “Goonishness” is emotionalism. Emotionalism is the story. Goonishness is the story.

    You Goons are cartoonish in your evidencing of emotionalism. You threaten to kill people who report honestly on the last 35 years of peer-reviewed research. That’s insane. You take it to the limit. Few Buy-and-Holders go that far.

    But Jack Bogle ENDORSES Mel Linduaer’s book. Bogle permits his name to be used at a discussion board at which the sorts of individuals who “defend” Lindauer’s threats of physical violence are permitted to participate. Is that not insanely emotional too? Is Bogle’s take on investing not also insanely emotional? There’s an argument that Bogle is more emotional than Lindauer. Bogle does not himself advance death threats. But Bogle is of a stature many times greater than Lindauer’s stature. One would expect him to behave in a more professional manner than some guy who has no background in the field. But Bogle endorses this other figure and engages in back-and-forth with him and so on. Is that not remarkable? Is that not an insanely emotional thing for Bogle to do?

    The problem with Buy-and-Hold is that it ignores emotion. That’s the error. The Buy-and-Holders don’t believe that emotion should control investing choices any more than I do. They hate it that emotion plays a role. The difference between the Buy-and-Holders and me is that their hatred of emotion causes them to pretend that it does not exist while my approach is to acknowledge the influence that emotion has on us and to try to combat it by quantifying its effect, thereby showing investors how much they hurt themselves by giving in to their emotional (goonish) impulses.

    We all need to be talking about investor emotion (goonishness) every day. At every board. At every blog. All the time. Everywhere.

    Our inner goonishness is the story, Anonymous. This is the breakthrough. This is the deal here.

    In ordinary circumstances, we don’t tolerate the sorts of tactics that you Goons have employed to stop us all from learning what we all need to know about how stock investing works. Why do we tolerate stuff in the investing realm that we do not tolerate in any other field of human endeavor? You never see this sort of behavior in discussions of sports or politics or fashions or cars. Why the heck is the investing realm so special?

    It’s special because we have made the most important aspect of the question — the extent to which investors hurt themselves by giving in to their Get Rich Quick impulse — taboo. The Buy-and-Holders think of themselves as having OVERCOME their Get Rich Quick impulse. This is the appeal of Buy-and-Hold to them. They are lying to themselves. Just because you convince yourself that you are above Get Rich Quick doesn’t mean that you are. The Madoff investors thought they were above Get Rich Quick. They thought they were smarter than everyone else, just like the Buy-and-Holders think they are smarter than everyone else. Investors who get taken in by their Get Rich Quick urge do not learn that this is so until they lose most of their life savings. And at that point it is of course too late to help them.

    I am trying to help you, Anonymous. We all want the same thing — to invest effectively for the long term. I am trying to deliver that thing to you. And you hate me with a burning hate for doing so. Not because you don’t really want to achieve the goal. Because you cannot bear to accept that you did not achieve it many years ago when you first became a Buy-and-Holder. I am telling you something that you very much need to know but that you very much do not want to know. That’s the source of the friction. That reality drives all the trouble we have been seeing for 14 years now.

    People who agree with me on the content side (it’s a minority but it is not a small number — perhaps 20 percent of the population) have learned that it is not smart business to be entirely open about their beliefs. They don’t want to be hated as much as I am hated. So they pull their punches. They hint at the things that I say directly and plainly and boldly and openly.

    Why don’t I do that? I want to be liked. Why don’t I play the game that everyone else who agrees with Shiller plays?

    It doesn’t work.

    Shiller revolutionized this field in an intellectual sense 35 years ago.

    What has changed? Anything? We are today living through the worst economic crisis in U.S. history. It was brought on by the promotion of Buy-and-Hold strategies. Have we learned ANYTHING by the publication of Shiller’s revolutionary research?

    In a practical sense, we are wore off than ever. The Shiller Revolution has not yet born good fruit.

    I want to change that. I want to see Shiller’s amazing, powerful insight help people to invest more effectively. So I talk openly about the emotion that drives investor decisions. I quantify the effect of valuations/emotions/goonishness. The peer-reviewed research that I co-authored with Wade Pfau shows that valuations/emotions/goonishness is 80 percent of the investing story. That tells me that it should be 80 percent of what we all talk about in out articles and books and speeches and so on. It is not that today. It is not close to that today.

    I want to change the conversations that we are having. You don’t do that by putting thins forward in the tentative way that Shiller puts things forward. We need to stop pulling our punches. We need to explore the implications of Shiller’s ideas in bold and clear and exciting and far-reaching ways. We want to take these ideas to their logical conclusions, not cower in the corner for fear of what you Goons will say about us if we dare to share some important truths with the millions of middle-class investors who very much need to hear about them.

    I don’t apologize for getting it right, Anonymous. I am proud to get it right. It took me some time to work up the courage to speak out. Now that I have done so and now that I have seen how much I can help people by doing so, I am not inclined to back away from a fight. I don’t like fights. I hate fights. I am an extremely conflict-averse person, as anyone who knew me before I put up my famous post of May 13, 2002, will attest. But I LOVE developing the Valuation-Informed Indexing concept. I believe that it is the future of investing analysis. To keep that baby growing up strong, I need to fight the nasties who very, very, very much want to kill it in the crib. That would be you Goons! We are working at cross purposes.

    It’s not personal. I like you. I consider you a friend. I have learned from you. I am happy to respond to questions from you. I would be happy to sit down and have a beer with you someday.

    But don’t engage in funny business re my baby if you don’t want to get a slap across your face, you know? I fight for Valuation-Informed Indexing. Someone has to fight for it or it will never become the dominant investing model. No one else has shown a willingness to take on the job (for obvious reasons!) so it has been left to me. I do my best, you know? I work it hard.

    Goonishness is the problem. Goonishness is what makes stock investing risky. I want to reduce stock risk. So I need to talk about goonishness. I need to warn people of its dangers. That’s the job.

    That’s the story here. It seems so clear to me.

    I naturally wish you all good things.

    Rob

  7. Rob says

    June 11, 2016 at 7:06 pm

    “But I will be laying the groundwork”

    You’ve been laying groundwork for 14 years. Nothing has progressed except your age.

    Holy smokes! Could anyone possibly be more wrong about something than you are wrong re this one?

    The peer-reviewed research that Wade Pfau and I co-authored is the most important piece of peer-reviewed research published in this field in the past 35 years. I think it would be fair to say that you Goons agree. If you didn’t agree, you would not have felt sufficiently threatened by it to feel a need to threaten Wade if he continued to publish honest research. So we are all on the same page. We all see where this is headed. The difference is that I want us as a society to come to enjoy all these huge advances and you want to keep the smelly Buy-and-Hold Con going a little while longer through whatever means possible.

    Everything has changed over the past 14 years. I didn’t know any of this stuff 14 years ago. I knew that Greaney got the safe withdrawal rate number wrong in his “study.” That was pretty much the extent of my contribution at that time. And I wasn’t even entirely sure of that. The core insight of the May 13, 2002, post was put in the form of a question. I was asking whether we should consider valuations when determining the safe withdrawal rate. I think it would be fair to say that I am not generally putting things in the form of a question today. I have learned a LOT. I have gained a LOT of confidence. I have spoken to THOUSANDS of people and had thousands of people tell me that I am right on and to keep up the good work. Like Van Morrison said, it’s too late to stop now!

    The Campaign of Terror has obviously been a drag. No one says different. But the good stuff here is 50 times more good than the bad stuff here is bad. Every single good thing that we have accomplished came about because I would not let you Goons intimidate me into silence. It’s amazing what people can do when they just think for themselves and work with good people and not let bad people intimidate them into silence. I should not be able to do the stuff I do, Anonymous. I have gone far beyond what I thought I was capable of doing in my wildest dreams. The reason why I was able to do such amazing things is that your hatefulness was so extreme that it intimidated all of my competition, leaving the field to little old me for 14 years now.

    I need more competition! I need people to develop some backbone and to work for their share of the hundreds of billions in earnings that are here for the taking by anyone willing to take on the nasties. Why do I have a funny feeling that more than one or two will be working up the courage to join me some day not too long after the onset of the next price crash?

    I obviously don’t like the way that things have played out thus far. But you lose all credibility in my eyes when you deny the huge advances that we have achieved over the first 14 years of our discussions. We have gone so far beyond what I dreamed was possible in the early days that I cannot describe in words how much farther we have gone. It is going to take decades just to take it all in. I could not even list all of the powerful insights that we have developed together in these communities because I have temporarily forgotten many of them as my attention has been pulled in new and even more exciting directions.

    Developing powerful insights is not the problem here. If it is possible to develop too many powerful insights, we have developed too many! I can’t keep track of them all. It exhausts me to try. I have written 300 of those Valuation-Informed Indexing columns. That’s just one column! Holy moly!

    Everything has changed.

    We just need to make it real. We just need to get it on the front page of the New York Times. We just need to see your prison sentence announced. We just need to get the word out to the millions of middle-class investors who have been telling us for 14 years now that they want and need to know the realities.

    Now do you see what I place such emphasis on the Goon matter, why I consider it the most important public policy issue of our time. It is you Goons who are holding us all back. We are on the one-yard line and we all need to pull together to work up the courage to execute the play that pushes the ball over the goal line at last. Then we all begin to benefit from all this amazing stuff that we have been developing together for 14 years now.

    Nothing has progressed? Are you telling a joke?

    No sale, old friend.

    But please hang in there. Things get better, man. A LOT better.

    We are close.

    Rob

  8. Anonymous says

    June 13, 2016 at 7:05 am

    You seem to define “progress” as simply feeling good about yourself. Wade has made real progress. Five years ago no one ever heard of him. Now he’s on top of the retirement investing world. He didn’t get there by patting himself on the back. Or claiming ownership of other people’s work.

  9. Rob says

    June 13, 2016 at 8:13 am

    I define progress as our entire society advancing in its understanding of how stock investing works, Anonymous. We need to be talking about the last 35 years of peer-reviewed research at every investing blog and discussion board on the internet. We need to incorporate Shiller’s “revolutionary” finding into every stock investing strategy we follow. We need to make our understanding of how stock investing works better and better and better and better over time. That’s how our country works. I love this country. I am going to make this happen. Mark it down.

    I’ve done amazing things over the past 14 years. I am very proud of those accomplishments. I am going to get credit for every one of them. Good for me. It helps everyone when I get credit for every last one of my accomplishments.

    Wade Pfau has done amazing things too. He is going to get full credit.

    Jack Bogle has done amazing things too. He is going to get full credit.

    Robert Shiller has done amazing things too. He is going to get full credit.

    John Walter Russell has done amazing things too. He is going to get full credit.

    And on and on and on and on and on. We are going to play it according to the laws of the United States.

    You Goons have committed crimes that have destroyed millions of middle-class lives. You Goons are going to go to prison. Some of you (the regulars) will be going to prison for a very long time. Good. That’s what the laws of the United States call for in cases like this. So that’s the way we should play it. There are good reasons why as a people we adopted laws against financial fraud. There are good reasons why we made the penalty for committing felonies prison time. We should enforce those laws. We should do so proudly and with firm resolve and with confidence that we are doing the right thing. We are helping not only the millions of middle-class investors whose lives have been destroyed when we enforce those laws. We are also helping you Goons when we enforce those laws.

    There was a time when you felt some love for your country, Anonymous. There was a time when you wanted to know how to invest effectively. There was a time when you wanted to help others learn how to invest effectively. All of that becomes possible again after you have served your prison sentence and your slate is clean again. We are all going to pull together to make that happen for you. You are going to feel better about yourself after you have served your prison sentences. But you obviously cannot even begin to complete your prison sentence until your prison sentence has been announced. So we are all going to pull together and make that announcement happen. I believe that we will do that sometime not too long after the onset of the next price crash. But we’ll see, you know?

    Here’s an amazing part of the story —

    You Goons are going to get credit for helping us all out with some of the questions you posed while you were working so hard to block millions of middle-class investors from learning what they need and want to know about how stock investing works in the real world. It wasn’t all death threats and demands for unjustified board bannings and acts of defamation and threats to get academic researchers fired from their jobs. You Goons mixed in some good points with all the smelly abusive stuff that you put forward. You are going to get credit for helping us all out by raising those good points. I am going to see to it.

    That’s pretty cool, is it not? Even the lowest among us get credit for having made positive contributions when we get serious about enforcing our laws. I think that’s amazing. I think that is very cool indeed.

    We are a good people. Our laws are for the most part good laws. The laws making financial fraud a felony are VERY important and very good laws. Those laws need to be enforced in a reasonable manner. We need to see to it. We are in the process of working up the courage. We are close.

    I will do everything in my power to get your prison sentence reduced to the extent possible. That’s my pledge to you. I won’t commit felonies myself. I won’t participate in cover-ups. It’s absurd to think that I would do anything along those lines. It’s not in my power to do anything along those lines; I couldn’t do such a thing if I tried and I am not about to try.But everything short of crossing the felony line I will do.

    Again, good for me and good for our system. It is a cool thing about our system that by following it we can help not only the millions of middle-class investors whose lives are in the process of being destroyed but also the gang of internet Goons who worked so hard and for so long to destroy them. I like that about our system A LOT. I am proud to be leading the effort to bring all this cool stuff about.

    Valuation-Informed Indexing is the future. Buy-and-Hold is the past. You Goons are going to prison. The rest of us are going to experience a second Independence Day when that happens and then we are going to enjoy the greatest surge of economic growth ever seen in our history. And we are all going to start feeling a lot better about ourselves and what we have accomplished TOGETHER. And about our system of government! We are going to feel better about our system of government when we see how well it works when we all just do what we need to do to make it work!

    It’s all good, Anonymous. Even the Goon stuff can be put to good purposes once we begin enforcing our laws in a reasonable manner. You Goons asked some good questions. We can learn from them. You Goons will be participating constructively once your prison sentences have been completed. There’s no reason why you wouldn’t once you no longer have the prospect of going to prison hanging over your head in the event that the massive cover-up is brought to a close. The internet will be a cleaner, safer place following the announcement of your prison sentence. We aren’t just changing how discussions of investing are held on the internet. By showing the damage we do to ourselves by permitting the sorts of individuals who have posted in “defense” of Mel Linduaer and John Greaney and Jack Bogle to participate in our discussions, we are making the case for applying the laws of the United States to ALL discussions held on the internet. That means that this new communications will be living up to its full potential in days to come.

    I am psyched. I love this stuff. I love Valuation-Informed Indexing. I love both my Valuation-Informed Indexing friends and my Buy-and-Hold friends. And I love this new communications medium. It all works together in a wonderful and life-affirming way once your prison sentence is announced. So I am going to make it happen. That’s what I do. I am personally convinced that I was put on this earth to achieve this important work. And I am going to see it through and make it happen. Count it, my man.

    Or don’t, you know?

    You are free to not believe a word I say. I can’t change that and I wouldn’t want to if I could.

    But I am shooting straight with you all the same. I am going to make it happen. I am resolved. The shift from Buy-and-Hold to Valuation-Informed Indexing is the biggest advance ever achieved in personal finance. Rob Bennett is going to go down in history as the guy who made it happen. Shiller did the initial research. That’s huge. But knowing intellectually that Buy-and-Hold is a big pile of smelly garbage has not exactly done us much good in the practical realm. I am making it happen in the practical realm. That’s a big deal. That’s my job and I take my work seriously. Always have, always will. No apologies whatsoever.

    This is my sincere take re these terribly important matters, in any event.

    Yay for me! Yay for all of us! Yay even for you Goons (once your prison sentences are completed)!

    I naturally wish you all the best things that this life has to offer a person (once your prison sentence is completed).

    Rob

What’s Here

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Rob on the Internet

  • Rob's Weekly Valuation-Informed Indexing Column at the Value Walk Site.

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  • Rob's Daily Caller Articles: (1) Can We Handle the Truth About Stock Investing?; (2) How We Invest Is a Political Question; (3) The Economic Crisis Is Trying to Tell Us Something (and We're Not Listening); (4) Facts Don't Matter; (5) Going Google Stupid; (6) How Much Transparency Can We Handle?; (7) Confessions of an Internet Troll; (8) Conservatives Fall Into a Trap by Blaming Obama for the Bad Economy; (9) Meet the New Media, Same as the Old Media; and (10) How Restoring Honor Will End the Economic Crisis

  • Humble Money Experts Are the Best Money Experts, (Rob's Article in the Integrative Advisor, the Journal of the Association for Integrative Financial and Life Planning)

  • Articles on the Return Predictor, the RIsk Evaluator, the Scenario Surfer and the Strategy Tester

  • The Myth of Buy-and-Hold and Seven Other Guest Blog Entries

  • The Good Side of Stocks' Lost Decade and Seven Other Guest Blog Entries

  • A Better and Safer Way to Invest in Stocks and Seven Other Guest Blog Entries

  • The Economic Crisis Is the Best Thing That Ever Happened to Us and Seven Other Guest Blog Entries

  • The Bankers Did Not Do This to Us! and Seven Other Guest Blog Entries

  • Stock Volatility Kills! and Seven Other Guest Blog Entries

  • The Risks of Buy-and-Hold and Seven Other Guest Blog Entries

  • The Future of Investing and Seven Other Guest Blog Entries

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  • Guest Blog Entry Compares Our Effort to Open the Internet to Honest Posting on Stock Investing with the Civil Rights Struggle of the Early 1960s

  • Our Monster Thread (153 Comments!) on Whether Bill Bengen Should Correct His Retirement Study Now That He Acknowledges the Errors He Made In It

  • Google Search Results for the Term "Valuation-Informed Indexing"
  • Favorite RobCasts

    • Bogle and Valuations

    • When Stock Losses Are True Losses and When They Are Not

    • There Is No Free Lunch! Or Is There?

    • Risk Tolerance in the Real World

    • Cash Is a Strategic Asset Class

    • Nine Valuation-Informed-Indexing Portfolio Allocation Strategies

    • Why the Stock Market Does Not Set Prices Properly (Even Though Other Markets Do)

    • Only Valuations Matter -- Everything Else Is Priced In

    • Low Stock Prices Are Better Than High Stock Prices

    • 30 Investment Myths in 60 Minutes

    Links That Matter

    • Ten Bogus Investing Truths

    • Study by Associate Professor Wade Pfau Showing That Long-Term Timing Provides Higher Returns at Reduced Risk

    • Study by Associate Professor Wade Pfau Showing That Valuation-Informed Indexing Beat Buy-and-Hold in 102 of 110 Rolling 30-Year Time-Periods in the Historical Record

    • Wall Street Journal Article Pointing Out That the Idea That Long-Term Market Timing Does Not Work Is a "Myth" of Stock Investing "That Will Not Die" Because "This Hoary Old Chestnut Keeps Clients Fully Invested" Even When It Is Contrary to Their Best Interests

    • Wall Street Journal Article Pointing Out That" "This Ratio (P/E10) Has Been a Powerful Predictor of Long-Term Returns" and That "Valuation Is By Far the Most Important Issue for Investors"

    • The Internet Blowhard's Favorite Phrase: Why Do People Love to Say That Correlation Does Not Imply Causation?

    • Michael Kitces (One of the Bravest of the Good Guys in This Field) Asks: "Who's Really at Risk When Avoiding Overvalued Stocks?"

    • Financial Mentor Article Reporting on How Our Knowledge of How to Calculate Safe Withdrawal Rates Has Grown During the First Nine Years of The Great Safe Withdrawal Rate Debate

    • Does the Trend Matter?

    • Improving RIsk-Adjusted Returns Using Market-Valuation-Based Tactical Asset Allocation Strategies

    • A Value Restoration Project Blog Post That Sums Up in Three Paragraphs All You Need to Know to Become a Highly Effective Investor

    • Year 20 Annualized, Real, Total Return v. P/E10

    • Year 10 Annualized, Real, Total Return v. P/E10

    • Valuation-Informed Indexing Always Superior to Buy-and-Hold Over 10-Year Periods

    • The Valuation-Informed Indexing Advantage

    • What P/E10 Predicted vs. What Actually Happened

    • Normal and Valuation-Adjusted Wealth Accumulation

    • Valuation-Informed Indexers Can Retire Five Years Sooner

    • Following Valuation-Informed Indexing Strategies Reduces Stock Investing Risk by 80 Percent

    • S&P 500 Tracked by P/E10 Level

    • Treasury Inflation-Protected Income Securities (TIPS) Table

    • Best, Average and Worst Returns Since 1871

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