“We Act As a Society to Keep a Bull Market Going By Banning Honest Posting. So Long As People Cannot Gain Access to Honest Reports of How Stock Investing Works, a Bull Market Can Continue.”

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:

If Shiller isn’t making things clear, then he is acting like a goon, correct?

To a limited extent, yes, that is so.

Shiller has never put forward any death threats. So he hasn’t gone full Goon. But, yes, it would be better if he spoke clearly about the importance of the distinction between short-term timing (which never works) and long-term timing (which always works). Each time someone speaks clearly about this stuff, it makes it easier for lots of others who are trying to work up the courage to speak clearly. And each time someone hold backs from speaking clearly, it makes it harder for lots of others who are trying to work up the courage to speak clearly.

Bull markets are liar’s markets. A bull market is what you get when millions of investors all agree to tell lies to each other about the value of their stock portfolios. If we permitted honest posting at every site, there could never be another bull market. Stock prices are self-regulating so long as investors are aware of the benefits of lowering their stock allocation as the value of investing in stocks diminishes. We act as a society to keep a bull market going by banning honest posting. So long as people cannot gain access to honest reports of how stock investing works, a bull market can continue. So we impose harsh social punishments on those who attempt to speak honestly about the last 36 years of peer-reviewed research in public places.

I don’t want to play that game, Anonymous. I played it once. I saw people get hurt. So I stopped. I don’t ever want to go back to playing that game.

Shiller plays the game today to some extent. He doesn’t put forward death threats. But he gives evasive answers when he is asked about market timing. He fails to make clear the distinction between short-term timing and long-term timing. He extends the bull market by doing that. He hurts people by doing that.

We all need to work up the courage to speak honestly about this stuff. Shiller could help us all by being more honest about this stuff in his public statements. I would like to see him do that. I urge him to do that.

I cannot force him, right? So what would you have me do? I have done everything that I can think of.

I believe that he will see the need to speak more clearly and forcefully re these matters in the days following the next price crash. So it will happen then. I wish it would happen today. I wish that Shiller would come out with a 100 percent clear statement by the end of business today.

But I cannot force it, can I? I am just going to have to exercise some patience.

Does all of that not sound at least roughly right?

Rob