Buy-and-Hold Goon to Rob: “No One, Including Greaney, Ever Said That His Study Had a Valuation Adjustment. So One Look Should Have Sufficed. Why Would You Keep Looking, Hundreds of Times, for Something That No One Ever Said Was There?”

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:

“I have looked at Greaney’s retirement study hundreds of times… I have never been able to find a valuation adjustment in it.”

No one, including Greaney, ever said it had a valuation adjustment. So one look should have sufficed. Why would you keep looking, hundreds of times, for something that no one ever said was there? That’s just silly. And stupid. And entirely dishonest.

If the study does not contain a valuation adjustment, there is zero chance that it reports the safe withdrawal rate correctly. There’s 37 years of peer-reviewed research showing that valuations affect long-term returns. The long-term return obviously determines the safe withdrawal rate.

A failed retirement is a serious life setback.

Not this boy, you know?

I wish you all good things.

Rob