I’ve posted Entry #404 to my weekly Valuation-Informed Indexing column at the Value Walk site. It’s called To Rule Out Market Timing Is to Rule Out Price Discipline When Buying Stocks.
Juicy Excerpt: In the long term, however, the rational investor possesses a big edge. It is the very purpose of a market to get prices right. So sooner or later stock prices are going to head in the direction of the fair-value price. The more mispriced they are on the high side, the more certain you can be that future price swings will be in a downward direction. The more mispriced they are on the low side, the more certain you can be that future price swings will be in an upward direction. Long-term price movements are highly predictable. Going long-term takes the guesswork out of market timing.


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