I’ve posted Entry #407 to my weekly Valuation-Informed Indexing column at the Value Walk site. It’s called Shiller’s Research Discredited Fama’s Research.
Juicy Excerpt: It is by combining Fama’s finding that short-term timing doesn’t work with Shiller’s findings that long-term timing does work that we are able to make full sense of the stock investing project. To say that what Shiller did was important is not to take anything away from Fama, who also did something important. But we do need to correct the misimpression that was created in the years between the publication of Fama’s research showing that short-term timing doesn’t work and the publication of Shiller’s research showing that long-term timing does work. In those years it became a widespread belief that no form of market timing works. And there is simply no research-based support for that belief.
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