“All of the Evidence Is on One Side of the Table and All of the Power Is on the Other.”

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:

If you and VII have been so successful, why are not famously wealthy by now?

Because there have been thousands of books published advocating Buy-and-Hold. And there are thousands of experts who have built their careers promoting the Buy-and-Hold concept. And because millions of investors have bought into the concept (never even having heard of Valuation-Informed Indexing) and can’t stand the thought that their retirement hopes are riding on a strategy that was discredited by the peer-reviewed research 37 years ago.

The research-based case for Shiller’s finding that valuations affect long-term returns is rock solid. But the opposition to open discussion of the implications of Shiller’s Nobel-prize-winning research is rock solid too.

We have a standoff for the time-being. All of the evidence is on one side of the table and all of the power is on the other. Will some of the power move to the side that already holds all of the evidence in the days following the next price crash? I sure hope so. I sure expect so. But we are going to have to wait and see to find out for certain. You Goons are not going to buy in just because I say that that’s where I sincerely think things are headed.

My best wishes to you.

Not Famously Wealthy (Yet!) Rob