Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:
“Once Bogle gives his speech and it is written up on the front page of the New York Times, we will all be working together.”
Oops. Well, that didn’t work.
A big difference between you Goons and me is that you live in fear. I look forward to The Speech. You Goons dread the prospect of seeing millions of people freed to hear what they need to hear. I wouldn’t trade places with you for $500 million, just to pull a crazy number out of the air.
Bogle was the person best positioned to do it because he is perceived as the king of Buy-and-Hold. If he gave a speech telling Buy-and-Holders that they need to be more open-minded re the last 38 years of peer-reviewed research in this field, it would be pretty darn hard for them to reject what he was saying. But there are others who can do the job.
Shiller can do it. That Nobel prize gives him a lot of credibility, even among Buy-and-Holders, who are obviously suspicious of him. Shiller also has an amazingly affable personality. I think that would help him build bridges to “the other side.” If Shiller speaks out, people in the middle will pick up on what he is saying and at least a good percentage of Buy-and-Holders will listen. That group will eventually persuade the others to soften their opposition to discussion of the last 38 years of research.
Buffett could do it. He is respected by all camps. Buffett has said lots of positive things about Bogle. So he would be heard by Buy-and-Holders. And Buffett is a value investor. He obviously understands the importance of Shiller’s message although he rarely speaks about the far-reaching implications of Shiller’s research. Buffett is too big a figure in this field to be ignored.
Pfau could do it. Wade does not have the same level of influence as Bogle did or as Buffett or Shiller do. But Wade has a very, very compelling story to tell. He is obviously a strong Valuation-Informed Indexer in his heart. But he has always bent over backwards to applaud Buy-and-Holders for their many powerful and legitimate insights. So he has credibility on both “sides.” And Wade’s personal story tells the tale that needs to be told better than any research paper ever could. The paper that I co-authored with Wade is the most important research paper published in this field in three decades. He meant for that paper to benefit every investor alive. Your threats have denied a valuable resource to millions of people in desperate need of it. When Wade tells that story, it is going to go viral. It is by taking this thing viral that we make the world a better place in some very important ways.
Bernstein could do it. Bernstein is, like Bogle was, widely respected and loved by Buy-and-Holders. But Chapter Two of Bernstein’s book is the best concise statement of the case for Valuation-Informed Indexing that I have ever read. So Bernstein can obviously cover both sides of the story. So he can make things happen here.
Losing Bogle hurts. In many ways. Without question. But we are going to move on. And we can do so without Bogle. We obviously will be citing Bogle’s writings, which strongly endorse the key principle of Valuation-Informed Indexing — using peer-reviewed research as a guide to how to invest. So we’re fine. I just wish that SOMEONE would step forward and make that speech that we need to hear to turn things in a positive direction. I am not expecting to hear it until the days following the next price crash. But I obviously would like to be pleasantly surprised to hear it by the close of business today.
My best wishes.
Rob
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