Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:
“And here we are more than 17 years down the road and the retirement study posted at John Greaney’s web site has not been corrected to this day. Can you beat that one? ”
Yep, easy to beat that one. As Wade pointed out, John Greaney already addressed your question in under 2 hours after you asked the question. Are you a bit slow when it comes to understanding things? Here you are now in your 60’s and you have wasted all this time. Sorry if we just aren’t interested in joining you.
What Greaney said didn’t solve the problem. Greaney said that, if people didn’t think that a 4 percent withdrawal is perfectly safe, they could take a lower withdrawal. Okay. But what if there are people in the community who have a hard time understanding why someone would conclude that a 4 percent withdrawal is not perfectly safe? What if those people ask questions? Can the person who has concluded that a 4 percent withdrawal is not perfectly safe respond to those questions?
That’s the dispute. If the person responds to the questions, then we are having a debate as to the implications of Shiller’s research findings. I believe that we need to have such a debate. Greaney doesn’t want to see one. That’s where we are working at cross purposes.
We don’t learn just by publishing peer-reviewed research. That’s an important step. But that alone doesn’t get the job done. We learn by talking things over. Shiller published his research in 1981 and we have not as a society debated the far-reaching implications of his research findings for 38 years now. We need to launch that debate.
Rob Bennett says: “Let’s go! This is exciting stuff!” John Greaney says: “Not here! Not now! No way!” That’s the dispute. I want to move forward to Valuation-Informed Indexing and Greaney wants to remain stuck in the Buy-and-Hold days.
I don’t believe that you Goons are going to join me. But I believe that after the next price crash I will be able to get enough Normals to join me to overcome the abusive tactics of you Goons. Time will tell the tale, you know?
My best wishes.
More-Than-a-Bit-Slow Rob
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