Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:
Delusions don’t pay the bills. You might want to start that job search earlier, rather than later.
I believe that the transition from Buy-and-Hold to Valuation-Informed Indexing will prove to be the biggest advance in the history of personal finance, Sammy. And I believe that those who put their necks on the line and serve as the pioneers will be compensated handsomely for their efforts. I haven’t received a dime in 17 years, as you know. But I expect to be receiving a whole big bunch of dimes somewhere down the line, presumably in the days following the next price crash when more people will be interested in asking hard questions about the merit of the Buy-and-Hold concept.
Delusions don’t pay the bills. That is so. But I have done a lot to make sure that I am not being influenced by delusions. I put myself out there. I write this column, for one thing. If I get something wrong here, some smart Buy-and-Holder is going to see it and let me know. That’s a check on me. I wrote to 30,000 academic researchers to elicit their feedback. Nearly all of those who responded had only positive things to say. My work has been endorsed by some of the biggest names in the field, people like Rob Arnott and Wade Pfau. How would that be possible if I were not saying something of value?
Even you Goons assure me that I am not delusional in a mixed-up sort of way. If my stuff were delusional, it would not upset you. You would just ignore it. One thing that I can say is that you Goons never, never, never ignore old Farmer Hocus. Why? It’s because you believe in Buy-and-Hold and you cannot bear to experience doubts about it. And my words bring out those doubts. That means that I’m doing something right. I am causing you to think. You very, very, very much don’t want to think about this stuff. But my words cause you to do that from time to time even though you don’t like the idea. Good for me, you know?
No one can be 100 percent sure that he is not being swayed by delusions. Our unhappy fate down here in the Valley of Tears is that we never know for certain. But I can tell you that every signal that I use to check out the merit of things tells me that my work in this area is of great value and not delusional at all.
You delight in your success in blocking me from earning an income for 17 years. If you were confident in your belief in Buy-and-Hold, you wouldn’t feel any need to do something like that. If you possessed a deep confidence, you would take what you could from what I say and leave the rest behind. You can’t. That tells me that there is something wrong with Buy-and-Hold. That tells me that these are issues that every investor on the planet should be looking at.
My best wishes to you.
Rob
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