Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for one of my columns at the Value Walk site:
Once again, you step right into it and make the case for Buy and Hold without evening knowing it. Buy and hold people ignore the short term ups and downs because they know that they market has always gone higher in the long run. Market timing schemes, like VII, require people to figure out when to get in out of the market. We have yet to see anyone, including Rob Bennett, show us their own successful personal track record (because it doesn’t exist).
I certainly agree that the market always goes up in the long run, Sammy.
But I also believe that market timing is absolutely required.
Shiller showed that valuations affect long-term returns. If that’s so, stock investing risk is not stable but variable; the higher prices are, the more risk there is attached to owning stocks. So investors who want to keep their risk profile constant over time are 100 percent required to practice market timing.
I would never call a strategy calling for market timing a “scheme.” I would play it just the other way. I would call a strategy that does not call for market timing a “scheme.” Market timing is price discipline. It seems to me that any strategy that suggests that market timing might not be required should properly be called a “scheme.”
That’s my sincere take, in any event. I naturally wish you the best of luck with whatever strategies you elect to follow.
Scheming (But Not Really!) Rob
You should realize you have a sickness when you can’t even stop posting on a holiday. Get help.
I love honest posting. I love Valuation-Informed Indexing. I love stock investing. I love early financial freedom. I love this new communications medium. Holidays are about kicking your feet up and having fun. Why would I want to pull back on holidays? That would make no sense.
As you know, I am focused nowadays on writing my book. There’s a sentence in Chapter Thirteen where I say: “This is the most important book ever published in the field of personal finance.” I go on to explain that the purpose of the statement is not to brag, it is to tell a story that very, very, very much needs to be told.
The thought that the market is efficient was a mistake. It didn’t have to be such a big deal. We all make mistakes. The trouble is that the mistake has been so destructive to so many human lives that the Buy-and-Holders cannot bear to acknowledge the mistake. And so we are now all stuck in this bizarro world where any crazy idea about how stock investing works can be advanced but the one thing that is absolutely prohibited is honest posting re what the last 38 years of peer-reviewed research teaches us about this important subject. I continue to believe that deep in our hearts we are all united in wanting to find our way to the other side of The Big Black Mountain. We’re all in the same boat. We all need to know how stock investing works in the real world.
I offer no apologies for feeling strong enough in my desire to help millions of people protect their retirement savings to post here even on holidays. Holidays are about spreading love, about shining a light in the darkness. That’s Valuation-Informed Indexing. That’s the first true research-based investment strategy. That’s honest posting. That’s the real turtle soup and not the mock.
My sincere take, Anonymous.
Truly and Deeply Sick (and Proud of It!) Rob
You are sick, indeed.
“ As you know, I am focused nowadays on writing my book. There’s a sentence in Chapter Thirteen where I say: “This is the most important book ever published in the field of personal finance.”
You are so detached from reality.
Yeah, yeah.
If you weren’t worried about going to prison, you wouldn’t be posting here, Anonymous. Please give me a freakin’ break.
Best wishes, etc.
Detached Rob
No one is joining you and your buddy Bernie Madoff.
Okay.
I wish you all good things, in any event, Anonymous.
Hang in there, old friend.
Madoff Buddy Rob
I am writing a book on how I think Rob Bennett is the biggest nut job ever. I think it is the most important book in the entire history of the world.
It will be interesting to see how things play out in the days following the next price crash, my dear Goon friend.
I wish you the best of luck with it, in any event. I hope that that helps at least a tiny bit.
Nut Job Rob
We already know how it has played out. You can read about it in my new famous book that is most important book ever. It was a disaster for you.
Your book has remained popular during the years in which stock prices have remained at insanely high levels. I have a funny feeling that my book will be the more popular one after prices crash. We haven’t seen that one play out yet.
An investment strategy that is popular only in bull markets is not science, it is a scam. Valuation-Informed Indexing works in both bull markets and bear markets. That’s a big difference.
Non-Scamming Rob
My book isn’t out yet, but will be soon. You and your friend Bernie can read it together in your prison cell.
I think it would be fair to say that your 17 years of posts offer us all a bit of a preview.
Death threats! Demands for unjustified board bannings! Thousands of acts of defamation! Threats to get academic researchers fired from their jobs!
Captivating material!
And none of that boring peer-reviewed research stuff!
Should be a best-seller.
But not in the days following the next price crash, in my assessment.
We’ll see.
Page-Turning Rob