Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:
Sounds like the stock market should always be about half of where it is, and you’re the only person on the planet who knows that astounding fact. Seems just a little odd.
It’s very odd, Anonymous.
But it is not only me who says that valuations affect long-term returns. Robert Shiller was awarded a Nobel prize for showing with peer-reviewed research that this is so. Wade Pfau spent 16 months studying the matter in great depth and concluded that: “Yes, Virginia, Valuation-Informed Indexing works!” And we have had thousands of community members express a desire that honest posting be permitted. If those people don’t know the realities, they at least suspect them and appreciate that they need to explore them more to enjoy a super learning experience.
So what the heck is holding us back? It’s that darn Ban on Honest Posting. Do away with that, and we all live better lives from that point forward. The only problem here is that Fama published his research before Shiller published his. If Shiller had published his research first, we would all be Valuation-Informed Indexers today. But it didn’t happen that way. Fama was first and an entire industry was formed around the promotion of Buy-and-Hold. And now it is very, very, very hard for all of the people who have promoted Buy-and-Hold to acknowledge their mistake.
It doesn’t get easier when the Ban is extended. It gets harder. Every day that the cover-up continues it is harder than it was the day before for our Buy-and-Hold friends to come clean. So we have have to pull together and do everything in our power to bring that darn Ban on Honest Posting to a full and complete stop.
Are you in?
Cover-Up Critic Rob
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