I’ve posted Entry #491 to my weekly Valuation-Informed Indexing column at the Value Walk site. It’s called We Overestimate the Extent to Which Economic Factors Cause a Price Crash.
Juicy Excerpt: When the CAPE is near 30, as it was in the days before the coronavirus became a major concern, the entire market is essentially a house of cards waiting to be toppled by the next gust of wind. We never can know in advance when that gust of wind will appear. But we know that the risk of a big price drop is much greater when prices are high than it is when they are reasonable.
I guess you can save us all by telling us where to put our money now. I will wait for your financial guidance.
I guess you can save us all by telling us where to put our money now. I will wait for your financial guidance.
I believe that we can all save each other, Anonymous. When I say that we should permit honest posting, I am not saying that only Valuation-Informed Indexers should be permitted to post their sincere thoughts. I am saying that Buy-and-Holders should be permitted to do so too. I obviously don’t believe in Buy-and-Hold. So how else am I going to be exposed to ideas coming from the Buy-and-Hold side of the table than to hear Buy-and-Holders advance them?
And it works the same for you. You don’t believe in Valuation-Informed Indexing. So your own mind is not going to come up with ideas rooted in the Valuation-Informed Indexing way of thinking about these matters. If you are going to hear those ideas, it is going to be from someone like me. And you should want to hear the ideas. You can reject them, of course. In most cases, you obviously will. But there might be one case in your entire lifetime when an idea put forward by a Valuation-Informed Indexer for some reason clicks for you. And that might end up being the most valuable post that you ever encountered. Because it will tell you something that otherwise you would never have considered.
This is the magic of community, in my view.
My best wishes to you.
Community-Minded Rob