Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:
The fact that Robert Shiller has NEVER blamed buy and hold, it makes your whole campaign worthless and lacking any support or substance.
He’s talked about irrational exuberance. It is the title of his book.
If there is irrational exuberance, it is something that hurts us all. It is something that we should all be working to diminish. It would be wonderful if Shiller and thousands of others did that on a dally basis. I certainly don’t think that it would help if I did less of that. We need more people making the effort, not fewer.
I have a chapter in my book titled “Robert Shiller Is a Failure.” I of course love and respect Shiller. All of my work is based on his research. So why would I call him a failure? I call him that because the CAPE value in recent decades has been higher that at any earlier time in history. Shiller’s research shows the horrors of irrational exuberance and yet it has gotten more out of control since his research was published. Huh?
That’s because of the factor that you point to. Shiller are many, many others are afraid to call the Buy-and-Holders out on their b.s. They try to be “nice” and not mention that the Buy-and-Holders made a terrible mistake in thinking that market timing is not required. We have to stop thinking like that. There’s nothing nice about it. The Buy-and-Holders were trying to help people and by making that horrible mistake they have instead ruined millions of lives. If they were thinking clearly, they would want us to point out their mistake and to do everything in our power to get it corrected.
Drop all the criminal stuff, Anonymous. Drop all the criminal stuff and tell Shiller that you have done so and ask him to come to the Bogleheads Forum and tell people there whether he believes that the safe withdrawal rate is always the same number. I am personally 100 percent certain what he will say if you do that. But there is only one way to find out, right?
We all are in the same boat. We all want to know how to invest effectively. Find out what Shiller really thinks re these matters and you are helping every single investor on the planet, including yourself.
I don’t think you will do it. But I wish you would. And I believe that Shiller is going to address the matter sooner or later, whether you do or not. Sooner is better for everyone, But this sort of thing just cannot be covered up indefinitely in a free society in any event. Not in Rob Bennett’s sincere assessment of the matter.
My best wishes.
Rob the Campaigner
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