Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:
Who threatened Dr. Bernstein? Why do you call him a liar, just like you call Wade Pfau a liar and Robert Shiller a liar? If they are lying about this stuff, then that makes everything else suspect. If so, there is no need to listen to anyone but you, right Rob?
When I say that these people are liars, I make it a point to note that that is the human condition — we are ALL liars. And I make it a point to include myself in the group suffering from that human condition. I knew that Greaney’s study lacked a valuations adjustment for three years before I worked up the courage to tell the truth about it.
It’s good to be at least a tiny bit skeptical about everything you hear. I can go along with that much, But we need to know stuff. So we do need to hear people out. I believe that the answer is to permit honest posting from everyone. Then you hear the claims but you also hear challenges to the claims. That’s perfect. That’s the path to a great learning experience.
What threatened Bernstein was the “hostile atmosphere” at the Bogleheads Forum that Wade Pfau often referred to. The idea that market timing is not required was the one huge error that the Buy-and-Holders made. It was discovered in 1981. The defensiveness today is not just over the error itself, it is over the 39-year cover-up. So the atmosphere there is very, very, very, very hostile to discussions of the far-reaching implications of Shiller’s Nobel-prize-winning research.
Just about everybody would prefer to be doing honest work. If the Buy-and-Holders had never said that timing was not required before Shiller came along. we all would have been Valuation-Informed Indexers from 1981 forward. But that is not the way the history of the thing played out. As a society we got it wrong before we got it right. So getting it right has always required saying the words “I” and “Was” and “Wrong.” That’s been the hold-up for all of us for 39 years now.
The thing that threatens Bernstein is the same thing that threatened me for the three years before I worked up the courage to point out the error in Greaney’s study. He wants to be popular. He wants to be able to make a living. He does not want to see his loved ones killed. These are all perfectly normal things.
The one mistake that the Buy-and-Holders made was no small thing. If the most important thing in stock investing is that we are all always sure to practice market timing and the Buy-and-Holders suggested that market timing might not be required, how do you think it makes them feel for people to learn now that they had it wrong all those years? It makes them feel really, really, really, really bad, Anonymous. And they act accordingly.
That’s what Bernstein is up against. That’s what Wade Pfau is up against. That’s what Michael Kitces is up against. That’s what Robert Shiller is up against. That’s what Rob Bennett is up against. That’s what anyone who has ever thought to put forward an honest, helpful word about how stock investing works is up against. If Shiller’s Nobel-prize-winning research is legitimate research, everything that anyone said on any investing subject before he published that research in 1981 is wrong. And there are a lot of wealthy and powerful and well-connected people who very, very, very much do not want millions of middle-class investors to find out.
But they have to find out. Our system cannot continue if we do not fine some means to get accurate and honest and research-based investment advice out to people. The safe withdrawal rate is not one number but a number that varies depending on the valuation level that applies on the day the retirement begins. Everyone needs to know. It is a painful process getting the truth out there. But there is no other way to do it than just to do it. The sooner that the truth gets out, the less painful it will be for all of us. So we just need to grit our teeth and rip the bandage off.
My sincere take.
And my best wishes.
Liar (Some of the Time!) Rob
“ That’s what Bernstein is up against. That’s what Wade Pfau is up against. That’s what Michael Kitces is up against. That’s what Robert Shiller is up against. That’s what Rob Bennett is up against.”
You consider yourself to be in the same league as these other people?
Every one of those people, including me, would like to see you Goons placed in prison cells so that they can do honest work in this field. No one got into this field to destroy people’s lives. We all want to help people. Which means telling them when we see that a retirement study lacks an adjustment for the valuation level that applies on the day the retirement begins.
Helpful Rob
“Every one of those people, including me, would like to see you Goons placed in prison cells so that they can do honest work in this field.”
When did you start reading minds?
You don’t have to be able to read minds to know that most people would want to do good work and help people and see you Goons placed in prison cells. Why do you think we have laws against death threats and against extortion and against financial fraud in the first place? Why do you think it is that the published rules of every internet site prohibit the behavior that you Goons have engaged in to block investors from learning about the error in the Buy-and-Hold retirement studies? Why do you think that in every other field of human endeavor honest posting is permitted and it is criminal acts that are prohibited?
Human beings cannot long operate under the upside-down rules that now apply in the investment advice field. Things got upside down when Shiller published his Nobel-prize-winning research in 1981 and we didn’t launch a national debate on that amazing advance immediately. The advance was so big that it caused a lot of people to experience cognitive dissonance. And then, people became so ashamed of their participation in the cover-up that they could not bear to speak out against it. I am highly confident that, when we see the ocean of human misery brought on by the next Buy-and-Hold Crisis, a larger percentage of the population will work up the courage to speak up.
Death threats, just ain’t normal, Anonymous. Extortion just ain’t normal. Financial fraud just ain’t normal. If you say that they have become the norm in discussions of safe withdrawal rates over the past 18 years, you’ve got me. But people who work in the investment advice field live in a nation of people and sooner or later they need to take into consideration the human misery they are causing to that nation of people by their continued participation in the 39-year cover-up.
Ot so Rob Bennett sincerely believes, in any event.
My best wishes, etc.
Mind-Reading (But Not Really!) Rob
I have never seen Shiller, Pfau and Bernstein use the word “goons”, or day that there have been criminal acts/threats, or say people should go to prison. You are the only one making these claims.
You’re right, Anonymous. And that’s a problem. That’s a HUGE problem. I don’t think it would be overstating things too much to say that that is our ONLY problem.
Say that everyone in this field used the word “Goon” on every occasion on which it was appropriate to do so. If that were the case, we wouldn’t see any more Goon behavior. The Buy-and-Holders who were tempted to engage in Goon behavior would rein it in if they felt that they were going to be called out on it.
So all that would be left would be people advocating Valuation-Informed Indexing and people advocating Buy-and-Hold in civil and reasonable ways. That would of course be a good thing. We want that. If we only heard from Valuation-Informed Indexers, there would be no one to keep them honest. We need to have people keeping them honest and the Buy-and-Holders serve that role. So that part is good.
Say that Motley Fool had followed its own published rules and gave Greaney the boot when he put forward his first death threat. That would have ended the problem. Greaney was a popular poster. Had people seen him get the boot, they would have refrained from putting forward death threats themselves. So the discussions would have been amazing. It would have been one learning experience after another after another after another.
It’s not that these people you mention do not see the Goon behavior and are not appalled by it. Wade spoke to me about it on several occasions. He was shocked by it. He found it unbelievable. But you are right that he was afraid to call you Goons out on it in public and to your face. Why? He knew that, as soon as he did that, you would turn your fury on him and he didn’t want that. So he only talked about his horror at your behavior to me. Which of course didn’t accomplish much. I already knew about it! I am the world expert on it!
Shiller was awarded a Nobel prize because he showed us something very important about the stock investing experience. He showed with research that stock investing is a highly emotional experience. You engage in bad behavior because you feel pain when your Buy-and-Hold beliefs are challenged. The Goon behavior is evidence of emotion! It proves Shiller’s thesis! So Shiller and all others who think his thesis has value should be talking about it. But there are not, as you point out. That’s why we are in the unfortunate situation that we are in.
We need to have everyone talking about it if we are to overcome it. It wouldn’t take long at all to overcome it. If Motley Fool had just given Greaney the boot, that would have done the job. But Motley Fool did not do that. And then the next site did not do it. And then the next. On into infinity.
I want it to stop. I want the bad behavior to stop. I want the learning experiences to take place. So I call you out on your Goon behavior. Me doing that alone doesn’t get the job done. But there is no other way to get the job done than for a number of us to do that. So I do it and I encourage others to join in. When others join in, then we are off to the races. I believe that that will happen after the next price crash. I sure hope so. But, whether it does or it doesn’t, I am going to continue calling you out on your bad behavior. There is no other way to bring it to an end and to get the amazing learning experiences going. So I am going to continue doing the only thing that can take this to a good place and the thing that I implore all others to do. There is nothing else that can ever get the job done. If we do not call the Buy-and-Holders out on their bad behavior, they are going to keep engaging in it. It helps them to achieve their goal of silencing challenges to Buy-and-Hold.
If Shiller had published his research before Fama published his, none of this would ever have been an issue. We all want to know how to invest effectively. But that’s not the way things played out. Fama published his research and Buy-and-Hold became a thing and so now there are lots of powerful and wealthy and well-connected people who feel terribly threatened when anyone posts about the implications of Shiller’s research. Lots of Buy-and-Holders are more concerned about blocking others from discovering how stock investing works than they are about knowing themselves how stock investing works and lots of others are afraid to stand up to the ones who feel that way. It’s a mess.
We will have to figure it out as a society or we will all go down together. This stuff is important. You cannot have a society in which millions of people are investing to finance their retirements but they are not permitted to use the internet to learn what the peer-reviewed research teaches us about how stock investing works. That is just not a viable long-term proposition. At least not in this guy’s sincere take.
I suppose that we will all find out whether I am right or wrong in the days following the next price crash.
I naturally wish you all the best that this life has to offer a person.
Abusive Posting Call-Out Guy Rob