Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread of another blog entry at this site:
“It shows how threatening Shiller’s research findings are to Buy-and-Holders, Anonymous.”
Articles by Shiller have plenty of comments and following. It is specifically your posts that do not. Thus, your comment is not valid.
If Shiller put forward a statement that “The Buy-and-Hold retirement studies are in error and should be corrected within 24 hours because of the harm that they will otherwise do to lots of people,” he would get the same reaction that I have gotten. It is not that it is Rob Bennett saying the things that I say that causes Buy-and-Holders to lose their freakin’ minds, it is the content of the message.
If Shiller is right that valuations affect long-term returns, there is zero chance that the safe withdrawal rate is the same number at all valuation levels. By not saying that, he stays out of trouble. But is that a good thing for the millions of people who have used the discredited retirement studies to plan their retirements? It’s not. All of us who believe that Shiller’s Nobel-prize-winning research is legitimate research should be speaking up.
The Buy-and-Holders need to get over the fact that 39 years ago research was published showing that they had made a mistake in thinking that the market is efficient. That’s the bottom line here. We are not helping our Buy-and-Hold friends by keeping quiet. We are hurting them. We are making things worse by permitting more time to pass without seeing a correction.
That’s my sincere take, Anonymous.
I naturally wish you all good things.
Buy-and-Hold Critic (and True Friend!) Rob
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