“It’s Not Possible to Imagine That There Could Ever Be a Market That Would Not Collapse If Most Participants In It Were Not Practicing Price Discipline When Making Purchase Decisions.”

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:

“ You’re a Goon, Anonymous. You are not exactly trustworthy re this matter.”

You have to resort to name calling because you can’t win a factual debate. You talk about opening up other websites, yet you continually block posts on your website. How is this not hypocritical ?

I follow track records. I have seen thousands of buy, hold and rebalance outcomes in people that have successfully retired, but I can’t even find anyone that has been successful wit VII. The only explanation that you have is that we all just have to wait until things play out. That doesn’t work. The largest group of people retire between the ages of 60-65. That means that they have to have their retirement plan in place and nearly finished in their 50’s. They have to go with something proven. The risk isn’t worth it.

The peer-reviewed research that I co-authored with Wade Pfau shows that investors who make the switch from Buy-and-Hold to Valuation-Informed Indexing thereby reduce their stock investing risk by 70 percent, Anonymous. The risk question is not even a close call. That’s why you engaged in criminal acts (extortion is a crime) to shut Wade up.

And our research went back to 1870. We didn’t pick 24 years out of context and say “oh, look, we have come up with something that every now and again will produce good results for a relatively short time-period. We looked at the entire history. Everyone who has ever followed VII has done well with it. That’s not true YET for those who invested only from 1996 through today. But it will likely be true following the next price crash, which could come at any time.

The question is — Are you willing to take a bet with your life savings that stocks will be performing in the future in ways in which they have never in the past performed? It’s possible. No one can say with absolute certainty. But I think it would be fair to say that the Buy-and-Hold bet is the longest of all possible longshot bets. That’s why you get so emotional re these matters. You really, really, really want to believe that long-term market timing isn’t required. But there is no support for that outlandish claim in the peer-reviewed research.

Please mark me down as saying that long-term market timing (price discipline) has always been required and always will be. It’s not possible to imagine that there could ever be a market that would not collapse if most participants in it were not practicing price discipline when making purchase decisions.

My best and warmest wishes to you and yours, in any event.

Rob