Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:
“ I know what people want. ”.
No you don’t. If you did, you would have plenty of following here on this board as evidence to back this up.
“ If I were seeking treatment for cancer, I would want to know that the research backing up the treatment plan that I was considering had passed peer review.”
You call your comments as being research based, but they are not. Your comments are interpretations. That is a BIG distinction.
“ If you block others from hearing about options that they want to hear about, then you become liable for any losses that they suffer as a result. In this case we are talking potential losses in the many trillions of dollars. Not good.”
Tell us how this is consistent with your practice of blocking posts?
“ I believe that you are going to end up in a prison cell”
How can anyone take this comment seriously? You might as well say that the moon is made of green cheese.
“ Get Rich Quick strategies are a lot less fun on the other side of the price crash that exposes them for what they are.”
You mean like the expectation of getting a $500 million windfall?
“No you don’t. If you did, you would have plenty of following here on this board as evidence to back this up.”
There would be thousands posting her every day if not for your criminal acts. The very fact that you engaged in those criminal acts shows the power of the ideas. If you didn’t see people being persuaded by my stuff, you never would have crossed he felony line. Crossing the felony line is an act of desperation.
“You call your comments as being research based, but they are not. Your comments are interpretations. That is a BIG distinction.”
When I say that the title of Robert Shiller’s book is “Irrational Exuberance,” is that an interpretation or is that an obvious fact that can be checked by ordering the book from Amazon.com? If irrational exuberance is a thing, then it is a logical impossibility that Buy-and-Hold could ever work for even a single long-term investor. If irrational exuberance exists, then stock investing risk is not stable but variable; risk is greater when there is more irrational exuberance. If risk varies, then the investor seeking to keep his risk profile stable over time MUST engage in market timing to do so.
We desperately need thousands of people offering their interpretations of Shiller’s work. That how Valuation-Informed Indexing will over time become increasingly popular until it becomes the dominant strategy. The entire reason why we have this problem today is that not enough people were offering interpretations of Shiller’s work all over the internet before I came along. I am doing my part to take us all to a better place. I certainly do not offer any apologies for doing so.
Is offering interpretations of Shiller’s work the “bad behavior” that you say justified me being banned at so many boards? Please mark me down as 100 percent guilty as charged. It is my prayer and my expectation that in the days following the next price crash we will be seeing a lot more bad behavior at every investing discussion board and blog on the internet.
“How can anyone take this comment seriously? You might as well say that the moon is made of green cheese.”
Bernie Madoff was the toast of the town until his fund collapsed and he landed in a prison cell. It is in the nature of Get Rich Quick schemes that they make people happy until they are exposed for what they are. A friend tries to help a friend at the time when it remains possible for his efforts to do some good. After the crash, there is not going to be anything that I will be able to do. So I do what is available to me today. I wouldn’t be helping you if I said that I do NOT believe that you will end up in a prison cell.
“You mean like the expectation of getting a $500 million windfall?”
There is no one on the planet who was worked as hard as I have to open the internet to honest posting re the past 39 years of peer-reviewed research in this field. Shiller’s research findings stand to benefit millions of people in very big ways. Had you not engaged in criminal acts to hold me back, I would have earned a lot more than $500 million from the work that I have done over the past 18 years. This is the most important work that anyone is doing in this field, Would the world be a better place if I had just kept my mouth shut about the error that I saw in the Greaney retirement study? How will a jury see things in the days following the next price crash? That’s what will decide things.
My best wishes to you and yours.
Rob
The only person that needs or wants a discussion on VII is you. It is the only thing you have going to generate an income. It hasn’t worked and no one is interested. It failed. You failed. Find another solution.
Everyone on the planet wants his or retirement plan to succeed, Anonymous. It’s not just me.
If it were just me, you never would have advanced a single abusive post. The last 39 years of peer-reviewed research would represent no threat to you if it were only me.
Rob
You are the one with the failed retirement. You live in a pretend world.
You’re the one engaging in criminal behavior to stop people from being able to talk about the last 39 years of peer-reviewed research in this field. I believe that it is you and the other Buy-and-Holders who are living in a pretend world. I believe that irrational exuberance is real and that we all need to take it into consideration when making any investment decision.
I believe that we are all in this together and that, once we come to realize the power of the amazing breakthroughs in understanding of this subject that we have achieved over the past 39 years, there won’t be one of us who will ever want to go back to what we believed about stock investing in the Buy-and-Hold days.
Market timing is price discipline. Price discipline is the thing that makes all markets work. It is when we start thinking that there might be some alternate universe where market timing is not always 100 percent required that get ourselves into big trouble and make stocks an insanely and unnecessarily risky asset class.
It will be interesting to see how it all plays out. My best wishes to you.
Rob
You’re the one making up stories about criminal behavior. Your opinions around the paper of one person foes not constitute 39 years of research.
The 39 years of research constitute 39 years of research.
There has never been a single paper published showing that long-term timing doesn’t work. So why make such a claim?
The claim is the product of a mistake. There was a time when people didn’t realize the need to distinguish short-term timing from long-term timing. And research was published showing that short-term timing doesn’t work. So people got in the habit of saying that timing in general doesn’t work. Which is a false claim.
We learned that it was false in 1981, when Shiller published his Nobel-prize-winning research. The national debate about how to move forward should have been launched then. It didn’t happen because of cognitive dissonance. So now we are stuck in a place where we not only need to persuade the Buy-and-Holders to acknowledge their initial mistake but also the 39-year cover-up. Making it a 40-year cover-up makes it worse for everybody.
Wade Pfau spent months trying to locate a paper justifying the claim that long-term timing doesn’t work. He came up empty-handed. Every investor on the planet needs to know that. If market timing always works and is always required (it does and it is), that changes everything.
Market timing is price discipline. Price discipline is what makes markets work. You can’t have stock investing without market timing. If you do, you will eventually bring on an economic collapse. Economic collapses are bad. We should be trying to avoid them, not to be bringing them on.
Rob
One paper in 39 years, does not constitute 39 years of research. It is not that hard to understand. To make the claim that your timing scheme works, you need outcomes data. You do not have that. You misrepresent what Robert Shiller says and you also misrepresent Wade Pfau (who no longer speaks with you). You just can’t deal with reality and that is why your retirement plan failed.
Shiller showed that the core idea in Buy-and-Hold (that market timing is not required) is false and for 39 years no one has published anything challenging his finding. I am not saying that every single paper addressed that question. I am saying that there have been lots of opportunities to show that Shiller is wrong and no one has done it. It is not as if Shiller published research showing that there is zero chance that Buy-and-Hold could ever work last week or last month or last year. He published it 39 years ago. And not one paper in that time has shown either that market timing does not work or that market timing is not always required. That’s a big deal.
Drop the criminal behavior and we can open the entire internet to honest posting re the last 39 years of peer-reviewed research and you will have outcomes data coming out of your ears. Everyone wants to invest effectively, Anonymous. Permit them to learn what they need to learn to do so and we all get to live better lives from that point forward. No more death threats, no more acts of extortion, no more defamation, no more financial fraud. That would make all the difference.
Do you see?
Rob
What criminal behavior? What death threats? What extortion? What fraud? You can’t just make things up, Rob.
What valuation adjustment?
Rob
What didn’t you understand when Wade corrected you in the John Greaney issue? Why haven’t you backed up your claims of death threats and job threats?
I didn’t understand why you had to threaten Wade to get him to say the things that you got him to say. If he believed those things, he would have been saying them all along during the 16 months when he was working closely with me and saying opposite things over and over and over again. Extortion is a crime. If you have to engage in extortion to “defend” your favorite investment strategy, then there is something terribly flawed with your favorite investment strategy.
We have to unite as a nation in OPPOSITION to the use of extortion and threats of physical violence in discussions of stock investing. That stuff is killing us, It is holding us all back.
I think we will get there. But I think it is going to take another price crash to get us through all of the resistance. The longer the cover-up remains in place, the harder it is to overcome. That part is very sad.
Rob
Wade was never threatened. He even said so. Many people have asked him and he confirmed that because you made false allegations. You know that, however. Why pretend otherwise? Don’t you think people are actually going to check into your accusations and then when they find out your credibility would be shot?
I think that people will check into things after the next price crash. They will find that the Greaney retirement study really does lack a valuation adjustment, just as I have said. And that Wade said that the study is “dangerous” and should have been corrected. And all the rest.
I wish that everyone had just played it straight going back to the first day in 1981. At some point, a cover-up started. As time passes, it became harder and harder to set things right. We all have an interest in seeing things set right, So we are all going to need to work together to make it happen.
My best wishes.
Rob