“Humans Have Weaknesses. There Are Some Circumstances in Which Money Can Be Made Exploiting Human Weaknesses. When There Is a Lot of Money to Be Made Going in That Direction, There Is Always Going to Be a Widespread Temptation to Do That.”

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:

How odd that you can’t find anyone that can provide proof or verify your claims about death threats, job threats and felonies. Also add that people would avoid your timing scheme even though it would make them money. Also odd that Wade wouldn’t list you as an author. Very odd that every investment expert is too scared to say what you say. It is just one big vast conspiracy.

Was the Madoff fund a conspiracy?

Is alcoholism a conspiracy?

Is smoking a conspiracy?

Was racism a conspiracy?

Humans have weaknesses. There are some circumstances in which money can be made exploiting human weaknesses. When there is a lot of money to be made going in that direction, there is always going to be a widespread temptation to do that.

The Buy-and-Holders made a lot of valuable contributions. I respect them for that and I feel gratitude to them for that. But I do not believe that humankind knew everything that there ever would be to know about the subject of stock investing in the year 1980. Shiller added something of great value and we should be exploring his contributions at every discussion board and blog on the internet.

Shiller’s advance was so great that it threatens people who developed their reputations promoting the model that he discredited, So, yes, there is a lot of resistance to exploration of the new model. If we all were thinking clearly, there would not be one objection to the idea of permitting honest posting everywhere. But this is a subject that pushes people’s buttons. Partly because their common sense tells them that there must be some price at which stocks are not worth buying. It works that way with everything else that can be bought or sold in this world.

I don’t think that the answer is to keep quiet about what Shiller did. I think the answer is for those of us who believe that Shiller’s Nobel-prize-winning research is legitimate research to speak up. In a respectful and charitable way. But also in a firm and non-apologetic way.

I naturally wish you all good things.

Rob