“Again, If You Want to Know the Extent to Which Shiller’s Views Are in Accord With Mine, Ask Him. Knock Off All the Criminal Stuff and Just Ask Him. There Is a Reason Why You Have Not Done That for 18 Years Now. You Don’t Want to Know.”

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:

No, you are making interpretations. Shiller does not say what you say. Therefore, you are not reporting.

It is Shiller who has said that there is irrational exuberance, not me. It’s not an interpretation for me to say that. It is reporting.

It is an interpretation for me to say that that means that there is zero chance that the safe withdrawal rate is always the same number. Shiller has not said that and I have reported on why he has not said it — the relentless abuse advanced by Buy-and-Holders at those of us who believe that Shiller’s Nobel-prize-winning research is legitimate research and who post our honest views about the how-to implications of that research.

Again, if you want to know the extent to which Shiller’s views are in accord with mine, ask him. Knock off all the criminal stuff and just ask him. There is a reason why you have not done that for 18 years now. You don’t want to know. You feel that the chances of Buy-and-Hold remaining dominant for another week or another month or another year are better if people are kept in the dark. I am a journalist. So I naturally do not want to see people kept in the dark. I oppose the 39-year cover-up.

Shiller did something important in 1981, He changed our understanding of how stock investing works in a fundamental way. Now we all need to insist on recognition of our right to post honestly re what his amazing research findings show so that we can all begin living better lives from that point forward.

That’s my sincere take, Anonymous.

Rob

Rob says

October 19, 2020 at 9:18 am

I think we should be discussing Shiller’s Nobel-prize-winning research at every discussion board and blog on the internet, without a single exception. We need to figure this stock investing thing out. In every other market, price discipline is absolutely essential. There was a thought for some time that the stock market was the sole exception. In the stock market, price discipline is achieved through market timing and there was research published showing that one form of market timing, short-term timing, does not work. So the idea became popular that no form of market timing is required (or that timing might not even work!). Shiller was awarded the Nobel prize for showing that this is not so, that the stock market is like every other market that has ever existed, that price discipline is 100 percent required, that market timing always works.

The problem is the 39-year cover-up. Now that Shiller’s research findings have been covered up for 39 years, it has become very hard for us as a society to expose the error made by the Buy-and-Holders. If we just learned today that market timing always works and is always required, we would all be jumping up and down over our good fortune at finally coming to understand how stock investing works in the real world. But the Buy-and-Holders have been saying the opposite for 39 years now. It makes them look very, very, very bad for the people to learn what the research says. Our Wall Street Con Men friends are powerful and wealthy and well-connected people. So they have the ability to intimidate those who would like to speak up into silence. Not good.

I think this needs to come out. I think that our Wall Street Con Men friends will feel a lot better about themselves after we have opened the entire internet to honest posting. Our Wall Street Con Men friends are human beings first. They want to see the work they do help people. They want to gain the freedom to do honest work again and they want to see everyone else gain that freedom. But they are afraid of you Goons and of the gooniness that resides within all the rest of us that evidences itself whenever we are exposed to evidence that the entire Buy-and-Hold thing is a scam. No one likes to see the lives of their loved ones threatened. No one likes to see their career threatened. We need as a society to stand up for those seeking to post honestly. That’s the entire deal. Then we will all be free to learn what we need to learn and to live better and richer lives from that point forward.

Wade Pfau devoted 16 months of his life trying to find an iota of peer-reviewed research showing that long-term market timing might not work. He came up empty-handed. He declared: “Yes, Virgina, Valuation-Informed Indexing works!” He should be permitted to say what he believes about how stock investing works to every investor on the planet without having to fear that his career will be destroyed by Buy-and-Holders if he does so. So should ever other academic researcher. People make mistakes. The Buy-and-Holders made a mistake when they concluded that market timing is not always 100 percent required. We need to get that mistake corrected. The safety of all of our retirement accounts depends on it.

My sincere take.

And my best and warmest wishes to you and yours.

Rob

Comments

Anonymous says

October 19, 2020 at 8:03 am

Why do we need to ask questions of Shiller? We have read what he has said. He clearly states to not time the market using CAPE and he was right. Face it, he does not agree with you and you don’t like it. Wade Pfau also disagreed with you and look at what you did to him. It is no wonder no one wants to talk to you. You don’t listen.
Rob says

October 19, 2020 at 9:18 am

I think we should be discussing Shiller’s Nobel-prize-winning research at every discussion board and blog on the internet, without a single exception. We need to figure this stock investing thing out. In every other market, price discipline is absolutely essential. There was a thought for some time that the stock market was the sole exception. In the stock market, price discipline is achieved through market timing and there was research published showing that one form of market timing, short-term timing, does not work. So the idea became popular that no form of market timing is required (or that timing might not even work!). Shiller was awarded the Nobel prize for showing that this is not so, that the stock market is like every other market that has ever existed, that price discipline is 100 percent required, that market timing always works.

The problem is the 39-year cover-up. Now that Shiller’s research findings have been covered up for 39 years, it has become very hard for us as a society to expose the error made by the Buy-and-Holders. If we just learned today that market timing always works and is always required, we would all be jumping up and down over our good fortune at finally coming to understand how stock investing works in the real world. But the Buy-and-Holders have been saying the opposite for 39 years now. It makes them look very, very, very bad for the people to learn what the research says. Our Wall Street Con Men friends are powerful and wealthy and well-connected people. So they have the ability to intimidate those who would like to speak up into silence. Not good.

I think this needs to come out. I think that our Wall Street Con Men friends will feel a lot better about themselves after we have opened the entire internet to honest posting. Our Wall Street Con Men friends are human beings first. They want to see the work they do help people. They want to gain the freedom to do honest work again and they want to see everyone else gain that freedom. But they are afraid of you Goons and of the gooniness that resides within all the rest of us that evidences itself whenever we are exposed to evidence that the entire Buy-and-Hold thing is a scam. No one likes to see the lives of their loved ones threatened. No one likes to see their career threatened. We need as a society to stand up for those seeking to post honestly. That’s the entire deal. Then we will all be free to learn what we need to learn and to live better and richer lives from that point forward.

Wade Pfau devoted 16 months of his life trying to find an iota of peer-reviewed research showing that long-term market timing might not work. He came up empty-handed. He declared: “Yes, Virgina, Valuation-Informed Indexing works!” He should be permitted to say what he believes about how stock investing works to every investor on the planet without having to fear that his career will be destroyed by Buy-and-Holders if he does so. So should ever other academic researcher. People make mistakes. The Buy-and-Holders made a mistake when they concluded that market timing is not always 100 percent required. We need to get that mistake corrected. The safety of all of our retirement accounts depends on it.

My sincere take.

And my best and warmest wishes to you and yours.

Rob