I’ve posted Entry #524 to my weekly Valuation-Informed Indexing column at the Value Walk site.It’s called Stock Investing Claims That Are Not Falsifiable Are Not Scientific.
Juicy Excerpt: Does market timing work? The Buy-and-Holders say it does not. Say that someone disagrees with that claim? How would he go about disproving it?
He wouldn’t be able to shoot holes in the research showing that market timing does not work. There is no such research! People think there is. Buy-and-Holders make the claim so often that people assume that there must be some research supporting it. But no. There is research showing that short-term timing (changing your stock allocation with the expectation that you will see a benefit for doing so within a year or so) does not work. But showing that short-term timing does not work is not at all the same thing as showing that timing in general does not work. There has never been any peer-reviewed research published showing that market timing in general does not work.
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