“The Stock Market Behaved One Way From 1870 through 2006 and Then in a Different Way from 2006 Through 2020. That’s 136 Years for Valuation-Informed Indexing and 14 Years for Buy-and-Hold.”

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:

“It will be interesting to see how things play out.”

It has been 24 years, which has been long enough to see things “play out” and it didn’t turn out like you said it would. You have to stop blaming everyone else for your retirement failure.

t’s only been 14 years since things began playing out in ways that you would not anticipate by looking at the historical return data. Shiller published a paper in 1996 saying that prices would fall hard within 10 years. So you cannot say that things did not play out as expected up until 2006. From 2006 forward, yes. So it’s 14 years.

So the stock market behaved one way from 1870 through 2006 and then in a different way from 2006 through 2020. That’s 136 years for Valuation-Informed Indexing and 14 years for Buy-and-Hold. I’m going with Valuation-Informed Indexing.

I don’t want to suppress discussion by Buy-and-Holders. I think that we need to hear both sides, Maybe the Buy-and-Holders are right. I sure don’t think so. But I don’t think you can ever say for sure. So I want them participating in the discussions held at every site on the internet. But I want the Valuation-Informed Indexers participating as well.

That’s my sincere take, Anonymous.

My best wishes to you.

Rob