Buy-and-Hold Goon to Rob: “We Don’t Have to Ask Shiller Anything”

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:

We don’t need to ask Shiller anything. We can read. You should try it sometime.

I read the title of his book, Anonymous. It is “Irrational Exuberance.” If there is such a thing as irrational exuberance, stock investing risk is not constant but variable; risk is greater when there is more irrational exuberance. If risk is variable, it is a logical impossibility that the safe withdrawal rate is always the same number (since the safe withdrawal rate is a risk assessment tool). So I do not say that I believe that the safe withdrawal rate is always the same number.

I believe that Shiller will say the same if you ask him. I encourage you to ask him. It’s a question that every investor on the planet should want to know the answer to. If the safe withdrawal rate studies are in error, that’s huge. There are millions of investors who have used those studies to plan their retirements and a failed retirement is a serious life setback. So we all should want to know what Shiller thinks. And the only way to find out is to ask him.

Shiller will be happy to tell you what he thinks if you promise not to threaten him. It is the threats from the Buy-and-Holders that have been holding back progress in this field for 39 years now. People do not like to be threatened. That is why as a society we have enacted laws against it.

My best wishes to you.

Rob