Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site, followed by the response posted by one of my Goon friends:
Today they do.
And the entire history of the market shows that today’s CAPE value needs to be taken into consideration to know what those portfolios will show tomorrow.
Irrational exuberance is real. Acting together as a society we can rein it in. Not one of us has the power to do that acting alone. This is a group project. This is why we need to feel free to talk about what the research shows, Learning the realities of stock investing is empowering.
Rob
No, it doesn’t.
How do you think it helps you with your crusade when you decide to call people childish names. Investing experts don’t resort to such childish tactics and they are more typical of board trolls.
My “crusade” is to have my right to post honestly re safe withdrawal rates respected at every discussion board and blog on the internet, without a single exception. That ain’t much of a crusade. Every human being on the planet should want to see honest posting on safe withdrawal rates. People use safe withdrawal rates to plan retirements. The objection to honest posting is emotional in nature. There is no intellectual content to it. So we need to examine investor emotions if we are to overcome this problem.
You are right that there is no one else who discusses these matters who uses words like “Goons” or terms like “financial fraud.” That’s why we have a freakin’ CAPE of 36 today! You couldn’t have such an insane CAPE value without death threats and acts of extortion being put to use to suppress posting by people who believe that Shiller’s Nobel-prize-winning research is legitimate research. Take away the Goon stuff and you would still have a range of beliefs about these matters, which if of course normal and healthy. But, if you took away the Goon stuff, things could never get so out of control on the emotional side that we would see a CAPE of 36. That’s an insanely emotional CAPE. At that CAPE, you are going to see death threats and acts of extortion and all the rest. It goes with the terirtory.
It helps me to point out the realities because it is only by understanding the realities that we can all advance in our understanding of how stock investing works. I would say that it is the people advancing the death threats and the acts of extortion who are behaving as “trolls,” not the people pointing out the bad behavior and asking that it be brought to an end. If we decide as a society after the next price crash that we want to advance in our understanding, the first thing we will do is to take action re the death threats and the acts of extortion. Those laws are in place for a good reason. They don’t help us unless they are enforced. We need to enforce them.
That’s my sincere take, in any event.
Rob
Facts:
1. Name calling is childish and sign of a troll
2. Your definition of honest posting is not “truthful”
3. Your allegations of death threats are made up and you have yet to show any proof
4. Your timing scheme has never worked.
5. You continue to misrepresent Shiller and he has repeatedly said not to use CAPE to time the market
6. You ignore what people have told you and just repeat the same lies.
And yet the retirement study posted at John Greaney’s web site remains uncorrected today, a day nearly 19 years from the day the error in the study (it lacks an adjustment for the valuation level that applies on the day the retirement begins) became public knowledge.
Strange stuff.
Exceedingly strange stuff.
I wonder what it could be that is going on here? This investing stuff is so darn hard to figure out.
Rob