“A Lot of the Most Important Things That I Need to See Happen Have Already Happened.”

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:

It seems you several problems, then:

1. You need people to think Buy and Hold caused a crash, which has not ever been a factor.
2. You need to find a champion of your cause, which you don’t have.
3. You need it to happen soon, as you are over 60.

It sounds like you need to find that job now and not wait until June.

It seems you several problems, then:

1. You need people to think Buy and Hold caused a crash, which has not ever been a factor.
2. You need to find a champion of your cause, which you don’t have.
3. You need it to happen soon, as you are over 60.

It sounds like you need to find that job now and not wait until June.

I need all those things to happen. But a lot of the most important things that I need to see happen have already happened.

1) We already have 40 years of peer-reviewed research showing that there is precisely zero chance that a pure Get Rich Quick/Buy-and-Hold approach could ever work for a single long-term investor;

2) Shiller has already been awarded a Nobel prize;

3) I already have co-authored peer-reviewed research showing that market timing always works;

4) We already have seen thousands of our fellow community members express a desire that honest posting be permitted at every site on the internet;

5) We already have laws in place prohibiting financial fraud and extortion and threats of physcial violence;

6) We already have millions of people whose futures are riding on the legitimacy of Buy-and-Hold — in the event that stocks continue to perform in the future at least somewhat as they always have in the past, those millions of people are likely to possess a strong desire to know what went wrong;

7) We already have in place a communications medium (the internet) that will permit us to get the word out quickly once there is a sufficient desire for knowing the truth about stock investing to overcome the abusive and criminal behavior of you Goons;

8) I already live in a country filled with millions of good and smart people who will be willing to help out once they see how important it is that they do so;

9) I already have hundreds of comments on file in which people have made insanely effusive comments about the Valuation-Informed Indexing concept, comments that will go a long way to convincing millions of others of the validity of the concept once they have opened their minds to thinking about a new way of understanding how stock investing works.
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The only thing that I can think of that I need but do not today have in place is a price crash that takes the CAPE value from 32 down to 8 and leaves it there for a good number of years. If Shiller’s Nobel-prize-winning research is legitimate research, we should be expecting to see that sometimes within the next year or two or three. We’ll see.

Rob