I’ve posted Entry #545 to my weekly Valuation-Informed Indexing column at the Value Walk site. It’s called Is Shiller Losing Confidence in His Own Research?
Juicy Excerpt: I believe that Robert Shiller is gradually losing confidence in his own research. He still has confidence in the findings. The findings are rock-solid and there is no reason to doubt them. But what really matters are the how-to implications of the research — what should investors be doing differently because of Shiller’s finding that valuations affect long-term returns? Shiller has made several statements in recent months indicating that he is pulling back from an expansive understanding of the significance of his work.
Can you name just one person in the past three years that has publicly supported you?
Can you name one idea in the history of the United States that its backers determined could only be “defended” through the use of criminal acts that turned out to be a winner?
If there had been no criminal acts, we might have had 50,000 people speak out in support of Valuation-Informed Indexing. Or it might be 500,000 people. Or 5 million. Or 50 million. Or 500 million. We won’t know until we try doing this without the criminal stuff.
There are good reasons why we have laws against death threats and against extortion and against defamation. That sort of stuff scares people. Scare people and they stop saying what they really believe. If we all were thinking clearly, we would want EVERYONE to say what they really believe. That’s how we all get to engage in the best possible learning experience.
My sincere take.
Rob