Set forth below is the text of a question that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site, followed by the response posted by one of my Goon friends:
Please provide the records showing what percentage of Buy-and-Holders stuck with their high stock allocation the last time the CAPE value dropped to 8. Common sense tells us that Valuation-Informed Indexers are far better positioned to stay the course since they are always careful to engage in whatever amount of market timing is required to keep their risk profile constant over time.
By definition, that would be 100%. Given the buy and holder started with $6 million, he has plenty in the bond/cd allocation that he doesn’t have to do anything with the stock, except for keep buying and making more money on the dips, just like he has for the last 2 decades.
Robert Shiller must be a goon as well since he doesn’t agree with you:
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/articles/2021/02/22/robert-shiller-u-s-equities-are-still-the-place-to-invest
Thank you for providing the link, Anonymous. I think every investor should be staying on top of what Shiller thinks.
I certainly would not refer to Shiller as a “Goon.” There’s one exception to that general rule, however. Shiller is a human and all humans have some goonish inclinations. So to that extent he is a Goon. As am I. None of us get it all right.
I don’t agree with everything that Shiller has ever said and I doubt very much that Shiller agrees with everything that I have ever said. It’s not reasonable to expect either of those two things. Different people have different views on different topics. It’s been that way since the beginning of time and I believe that it will continue to be that way until the end of time.
I believe that we need to open every investing discussion board and blog on the internet to honest posting re the last 40 years of peer-reviewed research in this field. Then we will all enjoy and amazing learning experience and will become able to live far richer lives in the future than we ever have in the past. That includes Shiller. That includes Bennett. That includes Anonymous. Permitting honest posting re the peer-reviewed research would be a plus for all of us.
I am sure.
Rob
So Shiller is right if you can spin his words into a story to fit your schtick, but if you can’t find a way to spin it, then Shiller is wrong. Got it.
Those words don’t make any sense.
I certainly don’t believe that Shiller is right about everything. And I certainly don’t believe that I am right about everything. We all have something to learn. We do that by permitting everyone to post honestly. That way, we all learn from each other.
I believe that the same laws that apply in every other field of life endeavor should apply in the investment advice field. No death threats. No fraud. No extortion. No defamtion.
My sincere take.
Rob