Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:
“The job affects me and my family. The book affects millions and millions of people.”
Wrong. The difference is that a job would be in the real world. The book is imaginary. You always choose imaginary over real world, because the real world is cold and mean and requires effort. It doesn’t fit in with your selfish hedonistic philosophy.
I view Get Rich Quick strategies as imaginary.
The reason why I prefer research-based strategies is that research helps us to appreciate reality and thereby to keep our imaginations in check.
The CAPE today is 37. That means that roughly 60 percent of the value of your stock portfolio is nothing more than irrational exuberance, stuff of no real and lasting value.
The way we fight irrational exuberance is through market timing. That’s why I am such a big advocate of market timing.
Rob
Saying you have a research based strategy didn’t mean you actually have one. Research is supported by outcomes. Otherwise, it is just your unsupported opinion.
I have been saying that we should open every discussion board and blog on the internet to honest posting re the last 40 years of peer-reviewed research in this field for 19 years now. Had we opened every site to honest posting on the afternoon of May 13, 2002, Valuation-Informed Indexing would today be the dominant stock investing strategy and you would have outcomes supporting it coming out of your ears.
The way that we get outcomes is by permitting honest posting re the peer-reviewed research. If you prefer to stick with a strategy that appeared to possess some promise in the days before publication of Shiller’s Nobel-prize-winning research, that’s your choice. But you do not get to decide for others. Every investor gets to hear advocates of both strategies and to decide for himself or herself.
The Great Depression was one outcome that followed from the relentless promotion of the pure Get Rich Quick approach. So was the stagflation of the 1970s. So was the 2008 economic crisis, which led to a lot of the political frictions that we are experiencing today. I am interested in seeing some other kinds of outcomes. I think we should be permitting honest posting, both for those who advocate for the Get Rich Quick strategies that have been doing harm to stock investors for as far back as we have good records and for the research-based strategies that were shown in the peer-reviewed research that I co-authored with Wade Pfau to reduce risk dramatically while also to increase long-term returns dramatically. I can live with that combination.
My best wishes to you.
Rob
Rob says: I know more than the other investors and I am right.
The world says: no you are not. We are tired of repeating it and you not listening, so we might as well block you/ignore you.
10 percent of the population of investors already believes that Shiller’s Nobel-prize-winning research is legitimate research. I believe that that 10 percent has it right.
So, yes, I believe that the 90 percent who still believe that market timing is not required have it wrong. But we have seen huge interest among that 90 percent in learning more about Valuation-Informed Indexing, If we permitted honest posting re the last 40 years of peer-reviewed research in this field at every site on the internet, the 10 percent would soon be 20 percent and then the 20 percent would be 40 percent and then the 40 percent would be 80 percent.
The death threats and the demands for unjustified board bannings and the thousands of acts of defamation and the acts of extortion are desperation plays, attempts to keep the most important 40 years of research findings from spreading far and wide. I want the research-based stuff to spread far and wide. So I continue to say that I do not believe that the retirement study posted at John Greaney’s site contains an adjustment for the valuation level that applies on the day the retirement begins.
It will be interesting to see how things play out in the days following the next price crash.
I wish you all good things.
Rob
And not one of those comments are backed up with any facts. Look at how that has worked out for you.
The shift from Buy-and-Hold to Valuation-Informed Indexing is the biggest advance in the history of personal finance. Are you joking?
That advance benefits everyone alive in the country that I love. You are pointing out that I have not yet seen personal benefits. I haven’t. But what happens to my country affects me. So I need my country to survive and to thrive. And the last 40 years of peer-reviewed research shows that that is not possible if we don’t all pull together and put all investors on notice as to the critical importance of market timing, I have a funny feeling that, once the word gets out and we are all living better and richer lives in about 50 different ways, that Old Farmer Hocus will be seeing plenty of personal benefits from all this.
So I get to do very well while also doing great good. That’s a pretty darn good combination. Yes?
And look at how it has worked out for you. I think it would be fair to say that you are looking forward to a long prison sentence in the days following the next price crash. Holy moly!
Rob