Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:
The problem is that us normal people believe that the word “honest” also means “truthful”. You obviously have a different definition and that is why you are banned.
I don’t believe that any of us has sole possession of the truth. I believe that, if we all post honestly, the truth will reveal itself over time.
There is a process to learning the truth over time. Part of the process is permitting challenges to things that were once widely believed to be the truth.
Rob
“I don’t believe that any of us has sole possession of the truth. I believe that, if we all post honestly, the truth will reveal itself over time.”
What is it that you believe that people don’t already know? What information is not out there?
People need to understand that the value proposition of stocks is not constant but variable. Investing rationally means looking at the pros and cons of various stock allocations at a particular point in time and choosing the one that makes the most sense for someone in your particular circumstances. That process of thinking things through is cut off when investors come to believe that market timing is not required. Market timing is the act that permits reason to enter the stock investing project. That’s why the payoff for engaging in it has always been so huge.
There was a poster at the Bogleheads Forum who said: “No one would ever go into a bank and announce that ‘I will take three certificates of deposit please’ without first checking on the rate being offered. But that’s how all Buy-and-Holders make stock purchases. They don’t even check how the current CAPE level affects the value proposition of the thing they are buying before making a decision. I would like to see people making use of their reasoning abilities when buying stocks. To do that, they have to give up any aversion they feel to market timing.
Once every investor appreciates how important it is to engage in market timing, there will be mountains of material generated to help them do it effectively. There will be all sorts of good stuff available to us, things that we cannot even imagine today. We don’t today even appreciate what we are missing because so many of us have fallen for the line about market timing not always being 100 percent required and 100 percent beneficial.
Rob
So you don’t have any new information or facts that you haven’t voiced already. There really isn’t any need to have you post the same thing you already posted thousands of times. Further, people have you ample opportunity to answer questions and have a discussion, yet you refused to do that. Instead, you are only looking for people to agree with you, with the hope that you will be looked upon as some leading expert.
Saying that there is no need for people to see honest posting re the last 40 years of peer-reviewed research in this field is like saying that there is no need for people to hear that eating an unhealthy diet can lead over time to heart disease or that smoking can cause cancer or that driving drunk is dangerous. People very much need to have access to truthful reports re these sorts of matters.
There have been four times in U.S. history when the pure Get Rich Quick/Buy-and-Hold approach to stock investing has become popular. On each of those occasions we have as a nation suffered a devastating economic crisis bringing on an ocean of human misery. Please mark me down as saying that honest posting should be permitted at every discussion board and blog, without a single exception.
I don’t mean just on safe withdrawal rates. Yes, we should be permitting honest posting re safe withdrawal rates. But we should be permitting it on scores of other critically important investment-related topics as well. Asset allocation. Risk management. Retirement planning in general. On everything, really. Just as we do in every field of human endeavor other than the investment advice field.
That is my sincere take re this terribly important matter, in any event.
My best and warmest wishes to you and yours, in any event.
Rob
You have repeated all this crap for the last 2 decades. No one is buying it. Why would you think it would be any different when you repeat all this garbage again?
I’m not the one who’s been saying that the safe withdrawal rate is the same number at all times, Anonymous.
I say that it CHANGES with changes in the valuation level.
Do you see?
Rob
Forums are made for having a discussion. You never have a discussion. With you, it is only one way. You never listen.
I never say that I believe that the retirement study posted at John Greaney’s web site contains a valuation adjustment. I say what I believe, which is that the study LACKS a valuation adjustment.
I don’t have a problem with others saying that they believe that the study contains a valuation adjustment. My position is that all posters should post honestly.
So long as those of us who believe that the study lacks a valuation adjustment are free to say that, people are on notice as to the problems with the study. If some elect to use the study to plan a retirement regardless, I am fine with that. That one is on them so long as those on both sides were permitted to post honestly. If only Buy-and-Holders are permitted to post honestly, then the discussions are fraudulent.
I do not care to lend my name to a fraudulent enterprise. I have been saying since the morning of May 13, 2002, that I post honestly or I post not.
Whachagonnado?
Rob