“In Ordinary Circumstances, the Words “Valuations Affect Long-Term Returns” Should Have Been Enough to Persuade Every Person on the Planet That There Is Precisely Zero Chance That the Safe Withdrawal Rate Is the Same Number at All Valuation Levels. Things Obviously Did Not Play Out That Way. If We Are to Be Certain That We Will Never Need to Go Through Something Like This Again, We Need to Know Why.”

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:

“The difference is that all of the ideas will be advanced in one place. ”

Which can be easily done by creating a single page with links to every point you want to make. Much easier and more focused versus a book.

No.

The 40-year ban on discussion of Shiller’s Nobel-prize-winning research has hurt millions of people in very serious ways. We need to come to terms as a society of people with what we have done as a society of people. To come to terms with this, we need to work through each aspect of the question carefully and completely. That takes a book-length treatment of the story.

In ordinary circumstances, the words “Valuations affect long-term returns” should have been enough to persuade every person on the planet that there is precisely zero chance that the safe withdrawal rate is the same number at all valuation levels. Things obviously did not play out that way, If we are to be certain that we will never need to go through something like this again, we need to know why. There’s not a one-page answer to that one. That one is going to take 150,000 words to answer properly.

We all need to come to terms with what has happened so that we can all move on to better things. There are no shortcuts. It’s taking shortcuts that got us to where we are today, with a CAPE level in the mid-30s. Not this boy, you know? I intend to do all that it is in my power to do to take us all to a far better place. I intend to give it my very best shot. I can do no more and I can do no less.

My best and warmest wishes to you.

Rob