I’ve posted Entry #554 to my weekly Valuation-Informed Indexing column at the Value Walk site. It’s called It’s a Logical Impossibility That Buy-and-Hold Could Ever Offer Good Risk-Adjusted Results.
Juicy Excerpt: To understand why this is so, you need to consider why it is that the idea that market timing is a bad idea ever caught on in the first place. Market timing has always worked. That’s been so for 150 years, which is as far back as we have good records of stock prices. The tricky part is that market timing often produced poor results over time-periods of one or three or five years. It is only in the long term that the magic of market timing evidences itself. In the end, it always pays off.


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