“Is It Just a “Factual Observation’ That the Sun Revolves Around the Earth? Ignore Many Years of Scientific Research and You Can Get Your Mind to a Place Where That Does Indeed Appear to Be a ‘Factual Observation.’ Take the Research Into Consideration and You of Course Arrive at Very Different ‘Factual Observations.”

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:

We look at outcomes to see as to what was right and what was wrong.  As noted by the discussion from the forum noted in the link, Shiller, just like you, has been wrong much more frequently than he has been right.  That is just a factual observation.

Did you adjust the value of stocks downward by 60 percent to reflect the effect of irrational exuberance in determining the “outcomes” that apply today? If you failed to do that, then you made the same mistake that Greaney made in his retirement study, you failed to take the last 40 years of peer-reviewed research into consideration when performing your calculations.

Is it just a “factual observation” that the sun revolves around the earth? Ignore many years of scientific research and you can get your mind to a place where that does indeed appear to be a “factual observation.” Take the research into consideration and you of course arrive at very different “factual observations.”

I believe that Shiller’s Nobel-prize-winning research is legitimate research.

Rob