Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:
“ How much of the growth was real and how much was irrational exuberance? ”
It is obviously very real. I can do whatever I want with the $6.5 million. For example, I can go buy a $6.5 million house. How real is your $500 million? Can you buy a house with it?
I don’t think that irrational exuberance is real, Anonymous. It TEMPORARILY has the appearance of being real. I’ll give you that. That’s what makes it so dangerous. If you fall into the trap of thinking that irrational exuberance is real, you will not be able to plan effectively because you will not know how much real and lasting money you have.
I can’t buy a house today with the $500 million settlement payment that I expect to receive in the days following the next price crash. But I will be able to buy lots of houses then. And I will have the satisfaction of knowing that I helped millions of people live richer and betters lives than they ever imagined was possible in the Buy-and-Hold Era. That ain’t nothing.
If you were confident that the irrational-exuberance money was real, you wouldn’t get so angry when I bring up Shiller’s Nobel-prize-winning research. If you were confident, you would be calm and happy to invite questions and to engage in friendly and respectful conversations with those holding other points of view.
My best wishes.
Rob
We can all make stuff up, Rob. I can claim that I will have receive $500 Billion after the next full moon. It all doesn’t matter. We live in reality. There is nothing of substance behind your claim of $500 million. Our net worth is calculated based on what our statements say we have.
I say that it is not, Anonymous. Shiller’s Nobel-prize-winning research shows that irrational exuberance is a real thing. Today, more than half of the value of the stock market is the product of irrational exuberance. I believe that investors need to take that into consideration when determining their true and lasting financial status.
I naturally wish you all the best that this life has to offer regardless of what investment strategy you elect to follow, in any event.
My best wishes.
Rob
Your OPINION on Shiller’s research is just that – your opinion. Shiller does not make the conclusions you make. There is nothing in what he says that indicates that you will be getting $500 million.
I disagree. Shiller has not directly stated everything that I have directly stated. But everything that I have directly stated follows logically from what Shiller showed in his Nobel-prize-winning research — that irrational exuberance is a real thing. If there is even a one-in-a-hundred chance that Shiller’s Nobel-prize-winning research is legitimate, we should be exploring the far-reaching implications of that research at every discussion board and blog on the internet. There were millions of people who prepared retirement plans based on the infamous “4 percent rule.” Shiller’s research shows that that number is sometimes wildly wrong. Every investor on the planet needs to know that.
I have consistently called for opening every site on the internet to honest posting re the last 40 years of peer-reviewed research for nineteen years now. I obviously would have earned far more than $500 million if I had been able to reach those millions of investors, as I would have been had the laws of the United States been applied in the investing realm as they are in every other field of human endeavor.
But we’ll see, you know? It will be interesting to see how things play out in the days following the next price crash. I believe that we are a good people and that things will work out better than any of us are today even able to imagine. I naturally wish you all the best that this life has to offer a person, in any event.
I obviously agree that my opinion is my opinion. I say that I should be able to express that opinion without any criminal acts of intimidation being directed at me by Buy-and-Holders in response. there should be a 100 percent consensus re that one. Once you Goons came to the conclusion that it is not possible to defend Greaney’s retirement study in civil and reasoned debate, you should have just thrown in the towel and asked him to correct it. The criminal stuff is completely over the top. Not one site owner should have tolerated it. Or so Rob Bennett sincerely believes, you know?
Rob
“I have consistently called for opening every site on the internet to honest posting re the last 40 years of peer-reviewed research for nineteen years now. I obviously would have earned far more than $500 million if I had been able to reach those millions of investors, as I would have been had the laws of the United States been applied in the investing realm as they are in every other field of human endeavor.”
No, there is nothing obvious. Tell us SPECIFICALLY as to how you would have gotten a dime. Who exactly is giving you the money and what are they buying? Are they buying books? Are they buying investment advice?
This affects millions of people. We know that there is a huge demand for accurate and honest investment advice. We know that Shiller’s breakthrough is big enough that it would save the investors who make use of it hundreds of thousands of dollars over the courage of an investing lifetime. If just 5 million people paid me $100 for materials that I could provide to help educate them as to the realities of stock investing, that’s $500 million. I am not able to say in what precise form they would want the educational material to be delivered. That’s up to them. I am happy to deliver it in whatever form they prefer. They key to me is getting accurate and honest information re how stock investing works in the real world out to every investor on the planet who wants to make use of it.
Does that not make perfect sense?
Rob
“If just 5 million people paid me $100 for materials that I could provide to help educate them as to the realities of stock investing, that’s $500 million. I am not able to say in what precise form they would want the educational material to be delivered. That’s up to them. I am happy to deliver it in whatever form they prefer.”
What materials? You don’t have any materials and you haven’t sold anything. You say that thousands agree with you and support you, but have you been able to sell anything to even one of those thousands?
Heck, we can all make this up. I can come up with materials and then say the same thing. I have plenty to educate people about. It doesn’t mean a thing until you have something of substance to show that you have been able to get someone to monetize what you have and then it is just a matter of scaling it up.
The very fact that you Goons have engaged in criminal behavior to block me reveals the great value of the material. You would be willing to go to prison over these matters if you didn’t see how Shiller’s Nobel-prize-winning research is truly “revolutionary” (Shiller’s word).
It will be interesting to see how it all plays out in the days following the next price crash.
My best wishes to you and yours.
Rob
So you really have nothing. You have no materials and you don’t have any track record of having something of value that someone was willing to pay you for it. That means there is nothing behind your claim.
It will be interesting to see how it all plays out.
I wish you all the best, in any event.
Rob