Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:
Predicting a crash is predicting the future. You seem look for ways to spin the same old stories without thinking about how you make opposite claims.
Even the Buy-and-Holders say that there will be another price crash someday. That is a trivial observation. It is just common sense.
What I say that the Buy-and-Holders do not say is that the risk of a price crash is far higher when the CAPE is 38 than it is when the CAPE is 17 and that investors should take that reality into consideration when setting their stock allocation (that is, they should engage in market timing with the aim of keeping their risk profile constant over time and thereby staying the course in a meaningful way.
There is no need to engage in predictions to invest effectively. There is a need to pay attention to the increased risk IN THE PRESENT in stock investing at times when the CAPE value has risen to insanely dangerous levels.
The CAPE value is known and the CAPE value tells you how much risk you are taking on. There is no need to make predictions.
Rob
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