“If There’s a Thing Called Irrational Exuberance, the Safe Withdrawal Rate Cannot Possibly Be the Same Number at All Times. It Has To Be a Smaller Number at Times When There Is a Lot of Irrational Exuberance.”

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:

“I believe that Shiller’s Nobel-prize-winning research is legitimate research.”

When did Shiller say that Greaney made an error? Answer: Never

Your problem is that you don’t know how to interpret research, nor do you include all historical information in your definition of research.

He said that there’s a thing called “Irrational Exuberance.” It’s the title of his book.

If there’s a thing called irrational exuberance, the safe withdrawal rate cannot possibly be the same number at all times. It has to be a smaller number at times when there is a lot of irrational exuberance. Greaney’s retirement study says that the safe withdrawal rate is the same number at all times. Greaney’s study is in error.

Fair enough?

Even Evidence-Based Investing recently said that he does not believe that Greaney included a valuation adjustment in his study. Evidence is one of the generals in Greaney’s Goon Army. When you’ve lost Evidence….

Rob