Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:
If irrational doom is real, market timers will be left with depleted savings
We are all hurt by any form of irrationality that becomes widespread. This is why I believe that we should all permit (and encourage!) discussion of the peer-reviewed research (all of it, not just the research that existed as of 1980).
The purpose of research is to help us to see through irrationality.None of us is perfectly able to do so individually. Some of us are irrational in our exuberance, some of us are irrational in our doom. I believe that permitting widespread discussion of the research would help us to collectively work our way to a calmer, better informed place.
Buy-and-Holders understand things that Valuation-Informed Indexers do not and Valuation-Informed Indexers know things that Buy-and-Holders do not. We are all in this together. We all want the same things. So we should all we happy to help those with difference perspectives and in turn to be helped by them.That’s where I am coming from, in any event, Anonymous.
Rob
From what I have read, your strategy is as follows:
1. Quit your job
2, Spend down your savings
3. Attempt to get a windfall as a way of funding your retirement
My strategy is to open every internet site to honest posting re the last 40 years of peer-reviewed research in this field. The “idea” that market timing is not 100 percent required for every investor is the biggest mistake ever made in the history of personal finance. When we all gain the freedom to post honestly about how stock investing works, we all gain the ability to live far better and richer and more fulfilled lives.
The $500 million is not a windfall.I have earned every penny of that amount plus a whole lot more. We all need to know how stock investing works, each and every one of us. Our financial futures are at stake. We cannot overcome the Get Rich Quick/Buy-and-Hold urge that resides within each and every one of us until we all gain the ability to post honestly and freely discuss the far-reaching implications of Shiller’s “revolutionary” (his word) research findings.
So the work that I am doing is very important. There is no more important work being done in the United States today. If you Goons did not appreciate how big an advance Shiller’s research findings are and how many people there are who want to learn about them, you never would have engaged in a single criminal act to block the discussions.
My best and warmest wishes to you.
Rob
“My strategy is to open every internet site to honest posting re the last 40 years of peer-reviewed research in this field.”
Over the last 20 years approximately how many internet sites have you opened to honest posting about the last 40 years of peer-reviewed research in this field?
I haven’t opened any in a complete and permanent sense. But there have been THOUSANDS of amazing moments in which breakthrough insights on how stock investing works were advanced that no one would have heard if I had not worked up the courage to “cross” John Greaney and put forward my famous post from the morning of May 13, 2002, pointing out that his retirement study lacks an adjustment for the valuation level that applies on the day the retirement begins.
We never would have seen John Bogle’s post saying that he could see how it would make sense to engage in market timing six times in an investing lifetime if it has not been for my May 13, 2002, post.
We never would have seen John Walter Russell put forward the first honest and accurate calculation of the safe withdrawal rate, showing that for those who retired in January 2000 the number was not 4 percent but 1.6 percent if it had not been for my May 13, 2002, post.
We never would have seen Wade Pfau declare as the result of 16 months of in-depth research into these matters that “Yes, Virginia, Valuation-Informed Indexing works!” if it had not been for my May 13, 2002, post.
I think I’ll continue posting honestly and in accord with the last 40 years of peer-reviewed research in this field, Goons or no Goons.
My best wishes.
Rob
“ The $500 million is not a windfall.I have earned every penny of that amount plus a whole lot more.”
To earn it, you would need someone to ask for your services and to then come to an agreement about what you are providing and how much they are willing to pay you for such services or products. Do you have that agreement with anyone?
I’ve had thousands of people express an intense interest in learning more about Valuation-Informed Indexing. I have seen my work endorsed by some of the biggest names in the field. I have had you Goons determine that the only way to stop me was by engaging in criminal behavior. I have a funny feeling that the members of a jury who meet in the days following a price crash that will ruin millions of lives will come to a conclusion that the work that I have been doing is worth a whole big bunch more than $500 million.
But we’ll see, you know? That’s how things work in our system. We are just going to have to wait to see how things play out in the days following the price crash.
I wish you the best of luck with it, I hope that that helps at least a tiny bit.
Rob
If you haven’t been able to fully find your retirement by investing with the VII strategy, why should anyone follow your advice?
Four reasons:
1) Common sense tells us that market timing (price discipline!) must work. Price discipline is essential in every other market that has ever existed;
2) We now have 40 years of peer-reviewed research confirming that what must be so really is so;
3) The behavior of you Goons. If you Goons truly believe that the Greaney retirement study contained a valuation adjustment or that market timing was not required, we never would have seen any of the abusive behavior that we have been seeing for 20 years now; and
4) The behavior of many of the big names in the field Few are willing to state openly that Buy-and-Hold/Get Rich Quick is dangerous garbage. But many have slipped little bit of honesty in with the big ball of Get Rich Quick/Buy-and-Hold advice that they feel they need to get behind to turn a quick buck in this field. The perfect illustration of the phenomenon is Bill Bernstein, who included language in a book published in May 2002 that an investor needs to subtract 2 percentage points from the 4 percent rule to identify the safe withdrawal rate that actually applied for retirement beginning at the top of the bubble. Bernstein could have brought all the nastiness to a full and complete stop with a simple declaration that OF COURSE the Greaney study was in error and needed to be corrected. He never did that. But he never denied the words in his book showing that to be the case. That one paragraph of Bernstein’s book alone shows the entire Buy-and-Hold thing to be a gigantic scam. If Buy-and-Hold was a real thing, the Buy-and-Holders would want any errors discovered in Buy-and-Hold retirement studies to be corrected within 24 hours of the moment when they were brought to public attention.
My sincere take.
Rob
“ I’ve had thousands of people express an intense interest in learning more about Valuation-Informed Indexing. I have seen my work endorsed by some of the biggest names in the field. I have had you Goons determine that the only way to stop me was by engaging in criminal behavior. I have a funny feeling that the members of a jury who meet in the days following a price crash that will ruin millions of lives will come to a conclusion that the work that I have been doing is worth a whole big bunch more than $500 million.”
Of those “thousands “ you speak of, how many have offered to pay you for anything?
What jury? It doesn’t exist. When has anyone ever received money based on unproven allegations? How can you make a case for damages when you had no business established? You have stated you quit your job, so how can you claim that someone else kept you from gainful employment?
In the days before I pointed out the error in the Greaney retirement study, I posted only about saving strategies. No one offered to pay me anything until I put out my report on “Secrets of Retiring Early” and then thousands of people paid me for the insights that I offered them that improved their lives. I have had many people tell me that I am the first person that they have come across who talks about stock investing in a way that makes complete sense. Those people would obviously be willing to pay me for helping them out. Nothing could be more obvious.
If you Goons did not believe that lots of people would pay me for what I offer, you never would hae engaged in a single criminal act to hold me back. It would make no sense for you to do so. I mean, come on.
The money will take care of itself once we have opened every internet site to honest posting on the last 40 years of peer-reviewed research. That’s the key first step. Once we have opened every site to honest posting, LOTS of people will be making money by offering honest and accurate research-based investment advice. Support for Valuation-Informed Indexing will just grow and grow and grow and grow.
The reason why we have laws against death threats and acts of extortion and all the rest is that as a people we want to see that kind of growth. Growth is our lifeblood. It is what makes our country succeed. We need growth. Which means we need to work up the courage to enforce the laws that apply in every field of human endeavor outside of the investment advice field in the investment advice field as well.
Or so this nutso Rob Bennett individual sincerely believes, in any event.
I naturally wish you all the best that this life has to offer a person regardless of what investment strategy you elect to follow, Anonymous.
Rob
“Over the last 20 years approximately how many internet sites have you opened to honest posting about the last 40 years of peer-reviewed research in this field?”
Say that there are 1,000 investing sites. I don’t know the actual number. For purposes of discussion, let’s say that it is 1,000. It has been 20 years and we have not yet secured one. Going by that, it would take 20,000 years to have the entire internet opened to honest posting on the last 40 years of research.
It doesn’t work that way. It is clear that many, many site owners want to open their sites to honest posting. Even a good number of those that have banned it have also expressed a desire to permit it. Motley Fool told me that they thought it would be “ideal” if Greaney permitted honest posting. El Supremo at NoFeeBoards.com said at one time that he was thinking of making me and John Walter Russell the moderators at his site. Bill Scholar had that thing where he was going to permit honest posting at one section of his site and ban it at the other sections. People loved that idea. People were very excited when he announced that. If you Goons had not threatened to burn his entire site to the ground if he went ahead with that, out troubles would have soon been over.
People want to see that it is possible to make money with a site permitting honest posting. Having just one site that permits honest posting and that makes money will be the turning point. It has taken 20 years so far to get the first one. But the second one will not take 20 years. It will take perhaps one additional year. There will be so much amazing discussion at that site that other site owners will want to copy the concept. Someone will jump in after not too much time. Then the third one will come in even less additional time. And then we are off to the races. In not too much more additional time, every site on the internet will be permitting honest posting.
The intimidation stuff scares people. That’s why you Goons employ it. But the use of intimidation is a desperation tactics, You turn to it because you know that you have no intellectual case.It’s a Hail Mary pass sort of thing. It astounds me that it has worked so long. But I don’t think it is going to continue to work following the next price crash. I believe that after we see the ocean of human misery that always follows a time in which Buy-and-Hold becomes popular, at least one site owner will work up the courage to open his site to honest posting. Then everyone will see how much interest there is in these ideas and a second one will follow in not too much time. Then it will just grow and grow.
Finding the first one has been very hard. That’s for sure. But the potential here is just off the charts. So I think we have to soldier on. Shiller’s work, as amazing as it is, does not achieve any good purpose if people cannot talk about it. The CAPE is higher than it has ever been. Shiller’s research has not changed the psychology of stock investors. For that to happen, we need to open every site to honest posting. And to achieve that goal, we first need to open ONE large site to honest posting.
My sincere take.
Rob
What is your definition of honest posting?
If I were to say that I believe that the retirement study posted at John Greaney’s web site contains an adjustment for the valuation level that applies on the day the retirement begins, that would be dishonest. I believe that the Greaney retirement study LACKS a valuation adjustment. I believed that on the morning of May 13, 2002, and I still believe that today. If anything, my confidence in that belief is stronger today than it was 20 years ago.
Rob
Like the example given before, it is like saying my car doesn’t have a microwave oven and then wanting to open all boards on the internet to honest posting posting that discusses all the aspects of using a microwave oven in your car.
Are you aware of anyone who thinks that Greaney’s study contains a valuation adjustment? Could you name them and provide a link to where they express this opinion?
Like the example given before, it is like saying my car doesn’t have a microwave oven and then wanting to open all boards on the internet to honest posting posting that discusses all the aspects of using a microwave oven in your car.
If my famous post from the morning of May 13, 2002, had been about microwave ovens, we wouldn’t have seen scores of our fellow community members saying that I had launched the most exciting discussion ever held in the history of that board.
Rob
Are you aware of anyone who thinks that Greaney’s study contains a valuation adjustment? Could you name them and provide a link to where they express this opinion?
The Greaney retirement study hasn’t been corrected to this day. It’s been 20 years.
Rob
It doesn’t need a correction. That is the point. Thus, your entire argument fails before it even starts.
Do you believe that Robert Shiller’s Nobel-prize-winning research showing that valuations affect long-term returns is legitimate research?
Rob
I believe in outcomes. There has never been a successful case with market timing. It has even failed for you. Meanwhile, there has never been a failed buy and hold portfolio. Having money is what pays the bills.
That sounds like a ‘no.”
Please mark me down as believing that Shiller’s Nobel-prize-winning research is legitimate research and that honest posting re the far-reaching implications of Shiller’s Nobel-prize-winning research should be permitted at every discussion board and blog on the internet, without a single exception.
My best wishes.
Rob
When looking at my account balance vs tour’s, I would say that your interpretation of Shiller’s work is wrong.
The entire appeal of irrational exuberance is that it creates the temporary illusion of success. Take another look in the days following the next price crash. The benefit of peer-reviewed research is that it lets you know how things turn out in the long run. Valuation-Informed Indexing has been beating Buy-and-Hold for 150 years now. That’s as far back as we have good records. And it hasn’t exactly been a close call.
My best wishes.
Rob
If you thought that my interpretation of Shiller’s work was wrong, you would be inviting everyone you could think of to offer alternative interpretations in an effort to determine the correct interpretation. I have been suggesting for years now that you ask Shiller to appear at the Bogleheads Forum and that you ask him whether he believes that the safe withdrawal rate is the same number at all valuation levels. It hasn’t happened. I wonder why.
Valuation-Informed Indexers are always asking to have discussions because we have rationality and research on our side, Buy-and-Holders have to avoid discussion because all that they have on their side is the temporary illusion of success created by the flood of irrational exuberance that we always see when Get Rich Quick/Buy-and-Hold is heavily promoted.
I believe in the peer-reviewed research. Call me madcap.
Rob
When did Shiller say that you should time the market with CAPE? When has Shiller said he agrees with Rob Bennett? Your depleted bank account doesn’t agree with you either.
Shiller put out a paper in 1996 in which he said that, given the sky-high CAPE level, investors who stuck with their high stock allocations would live to regret it within 10 years. That’s exactly what I say, that investors need to try to keep their risk profile constant and that it is necessary to engage in market timing to do it.
We would all benefit from hearing Shiller address every point that I have made over the past 20 years. I think he would agree with most of them, perhaps not all of them. But there’s only one way to find out. That’s to drop all the criminal stuff and ask him if he would be willing to respond to questions re all these matters. I am 100 percent sure that he would be willing to help us all out if you Goons would agree to put the criminal stuff on hold. Shiller is a gracious, easygoing guy. Why wouldn’t he be willing to do that?
He hasn’t done it because he does not want to see his career threatened and he does not want to see the lives of his loved one threatened. The criminal stuff is hurting us all. It is killing us. The laws against death threats and again extortion are there for a good reason. Shiller is not the only one who is afraid of that stuff. Bernstein obviously is. Bogle obviouslty was. Pfau is. Kitces is. And on and on and on and on and on.
We will have to as a society revisit the matter in the days following the next price crash, when millions of people will be dealing with some serious hurt that could have been avoided if we had just applied U.S. law in a reasonable way in the investment advice field. I think that we are going to make the right call at that time. But we will just have to wait to see how things play out to find out for sure.
My best wishes.
Rob
Shiller doesn’t agree with you, Pfau doesn’t agree with you, Bernstein doesn’t agree with you Kitces doesn’t agree with you, your bank account doesn’t agree with you, your son doesn’t agree with you, your priest doesn’t agree with you……and on and on and on.
Okay, Anonymous.
I do wish you all the best that this life has to offer a person, in any event.
Rob
“ I do wish you all the best that this life has to offer a person”
No you don’t. You call people names and make up stories about them (death threats, criminal acts, prison). Those are things said by someone with hate in their heart.
Not so.
I’ve done everything that I could to help you going back to the first day. I wrote to the site administrator at Motley Fool in June of 2002 asking that Greaney be given the boot. It was his job to do that. If he had done his job, you and the other Goons would not be in the mess you are in today. I have done my part. I cannot force people in positions of authority to do their job when there is a quick buck to be made by not doing it.
The Get Rich Quick urge resides within all of us. That’s the bottom line here. Overcome the Get Rich Quick urge (this is done by engaging in market timing when irrational exuberance threatens to get out of control) and we all live better lives from that point forward.
I don’t think it is possible to keep you out of prison today. Maybe it is. There has never before been a situation like this. So no one can say for certain. But my personal take is that it is no longer possible. But either way, I am 100 percent confident that the length of your prison term is going to depend on how many lives you end up destroying. So, the sooner come clean, the better you make out. And who has been advising you to come clean going back to the earliest days (when I COULD have kept you out of prison altogether)? Your one true friend in this world, the only community member who has done the best that he could for you going back to the earliest days.
I’ll always be there for you, Anonymous. But, if I say that I believe that the Greaney retirement study contains a valuation adjustment, I am committing financial fraud myself. Which is a crime. a felony. Which means prison time. Um — thanks but no thanks, you know?
Not this boy.
Rob
There you go again with the lies and hate. You just can’t help yourself.
I’m the bad guy. That makes sense, Anonymous.
And yet somehow in recent months we have seen even Evidence-Based Investing (one of the generals in Greaney’s Army of Goons) acknowledging that his “study” lacks an adjustment for the valuation level that applies on the day the retirement begins. I wonder why.
Rob
You are the only one making threats and calling people names.
You Goons consider it a threat when I say that I do not believe that the retirement study posted at John Greaney’s web site contains a valuation adjustment.
The only threat is to the Buy-and-Hold Model for understanding how stock investing works.
Rob