Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:
“ And I think that it would be fair to say that the universe elected me to perform the task”
The universe? Really? You can’t get even one person to post in favor of you on your own website.
That’s the problem, Anonymous.
Say that there’s a 1 in 100 chance that what I said in my famous post from the morning of May 13, 2002, really is so — that the Greaney retirement truly does lack a valuation adjustment. If that’s the case, we should be talking about that at every discussion board and blog on the internet. Greaney isn’t the only one who pushed the 4 percent rule. There were thousands and thousands of newspaper articles on retirement that cited it. Millions of retirement plans were crafted pursuant to a belief that the 4 percent rule is a reasonable rule. If it’s wrong, people need to know.
We’re not going to advance the ball by living in fear of you Goons. The 10 percent of the population that believes that Shiller’s Nobel-prize-winning research is legitimate research needs to work up the courage to stand up to you Goons. It’s the only way that the word is ever going to spread. There are no other possibilities.
The hard part is getting one large site to permit honest posting re the last 40 years of peer-reviewed research. After that, it will be downhill sledding. But we do have to secure that first large site for the benefit of the non-Goon population. In not too much time, we will have thousands of people posting here on a daily basis. We’re not going to get there by cowering in fear.
That’s my sincere take re these terribly important matters, in any event.
My best wishes to you.
Rob
There is no error in Greaney’s work. You can now focus on your own problem of a depleted savings.
Do you believe that Shiller’s Nobel-prize-winning research showing that valuations affect long-term returns is legitimate research?
Rob
Shiller said to stay in the market. Shiller said not to use CAPE to time the market. You decided to ignore Shiller.
Here’s a challenge, Anonymous.
Invite Shiller to appear at the Bogleheads Forum. Assure him that there will be no funny business. No death threats. No extortion. No defamation. Just an effort from all parties to get to the bottom of what his Nobel-prize-winning research teaches us all about how stock investing works. Permit me to ask questions Permit any other Valuation-Informed Indexers who want to participate to do so. And of course permit any Buy-and-Holders who care to to do the same. It would be good to include as many experts (Bernstein, Swedroe, etc.) as possible. See what we come up with.
Here’s my prediction. I put the odds at 95 percent that Shiller will say that the safe withdrawal rate is not the same number at all possible valuation levels. His statement on that will change the history of stock investing and indeed the history of the United States. We will all be living better lives from that point forward. There will never be one person who will ever look back at that conversation as having been a negative. We all want the same things. We all need to know how stock investing works in the real world. We would all benefit from hearing clear statements from Shiller re what he truly believes re these matters.
In a world in which valuations affect long-term returns, there is precisely zero chance that the safe withdrawal rate is the same number at all valuation levels. Zero. Every investor on the planet needs to know that and every person commenting on stock investing on the internet needs to feel 100 percent free to explore the far-reaching implications of Shiller’s amazing research in his or her every comment in the subject.
Are you game?
I of course already know the answer. But I don’t think it hurts to ask. I believe that we all will be having that conversation with Shiller in the days following the next price crash, when the downside of persuading millions of investors to go with a pure Get Rich Quick/Buy-and-Hold “strategy” will be obvious to all.
So — just to lock it down — Are you game?
When you post your b.s. response, my reply will be: “Surprise! Surprise!”
My best wishes.
Rob