Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:
My Tesla Model 3 lacks a microwave oven. Should every discussion board and blog on the internet be discussing it?
Getting the numbers right in retirement studies is important. People use retirement studies to plan retirements. An investing discussion board that forbids the discussion of errors in retirement studies has failed in its mission.
If Shiller’s Nobel-prize-winning research is legitimate research (I sincerely believe that it is), then it “revolutionizes” (Shiller’s word) the entire field of investment analysis. We have as a society been for 40 years now working up the courage to begin reaping the benefits of that revolutionary advance in a practical real-world sense. We are not quite there yet. But we are close. I believe that one more Buy-and-Hold Crisis will push us over the goal line.
Again, we’ll see.
Again, my best wishes to you.
Rob
To have an credibility, your theory has to match up to outcomes. After 2 decades it has failed to do so. You try to package this up like it is in line with Shiller, but it is not. It is counter to what he has said. Why would anyone put their money behind your strategy?
The theory behind Valuation-Informed Indexing has been matching up to outcomes for 150 years now. The peer-reviewed research that I co-authored with Wade Pfau shows that beyond any reasonable doubt whatsoever. If you didn’t think that our research was of huge importance, you never would have engaged in a single criminal act to block people from learning about it.
Every word that I have ever said about stock investing is rooted in Shiller’s Nobel-prize-winning research finding that valuations affect long-term returns. If that is so, there is zero chance that the safe withdrawal rate is the same number at all valuation levels. It is a logical impossibility. If you thought that there was anything more than a 1 in 100 chance that you could get Shiller to say that he believes that the safe withdrawal rate is the same number at all valuation levels, you would accept my challenge to invite him to the Bogleheads Forum to discuss the matter.
If you want to know why hundreds of our fellow community members have said that my stuff is the best work that they have ever seen on stock investing, ask them. It’s up to each investor to decide how to invest his money, not to a gang of internet Goons to decide the matter for them.
You are right that we haven’t seen the price crash yet. That is certainly surprising. I have written several articles explaining the factors that may have caused the long delay. Jeremy Grantham has written similar articles. Again, it is up to each investor to decide whether he finds those articles convincing or not. Those who engage in criminal acts to block people from hearing both sides of the story are liable for damages in the event that stocks continue to perform in the future somewhat as they always have in the past and those investors suffer losses that could have been avoided had you Goons permitted honest posting re the last 40 years of peer-reviewed research in this field.
My best wishes to you.
Rob