Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:
“ But in the long term market timing always works! ”
It has never worked for anyone, including you and that is why you are broke.
It’s been 20 years and never once have any of you Goons put forward an explanation of how market timing could ever not work. i presume that we agree that valuations affect long-term returns. So stock investing risk is not stable but variable (risk is greater when valuations are higher). So market timing is REQUIRED for any investor seeking to keep his risk profile constant over time. You’re able to imagine some circumstance in which it could be a bad thing to keep one’s risk profile constant. I am not.
That said, I naturally wish you all good things regardless of what investment strategy you elect to follow, in any event.
Rob
“ It’s been 20 years and never once have any of you Goons put forward an explanation of how market timing could ever not work.”
Easy. We have never seen even one successful outcome with market timing. It didn’t work for you either. You admitted to having depleted your savings.
Okay, Anonymous.
I do wish you all the best that this life has to offer regardless of what investment strategy you elect to follow, in any event.
Rob