Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:
You are not asking the right question. The Greaney study does not need it, just like my car doesn’t need a microwave oven. As we all learned in statistics class, you don’t risk adjust past results.
So you’re saying that if someone drives drunk three times in his life and gets in a serious accident on each of those three occasions but doesn’t quite die on any of them that it becomes reasonable to conclude that driving drunk is “100 percent safe.” Hey! You can’t risk adjust past results!
I don’t buy it. Once we learned that valuations are the most important risk factor (Shiller showed this in peer-reviewed research published in 1981), it became imperative to take valuations into consideration in any risk assessment analysis. So please mark me down as saying that we should open every internet site to honest posting re the past 40 years of peer-reviewed research.
No drunk driving for this boy. Call me madcap!
Rob
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