I’ve posted Entry #599 to my weekly Valuation-Informed Indexing column at the Value Walk site. It’s called What Is the Meaning of the Word “Overvaluation”?
Juicy Excerpt: If the word “overvaluation” means what it appears to mean, the entire Buy-and-Hold Model is rooted in error. In fact, the entire Modern Portfolio Theory on which the Buy-and-Hold Model is based is rooted in error. The Modern Portfolio Theory posits that investors are rational and that stocks are thus always properly priced. If that’s so, then the existence of any overvaluation shows that the theory does not hold water. You can have overvaluation or you can have market efficiency. You can’t have both.
Yet another article that shows how Rob Bennett is wrong for pushing his get rich quick timing scheme.
https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2022/06/timing-a-recession-vs-timing-the-stock-market/
Market timing is price discipline, nothing more and nothing less. If you are not timing the market, you are not exercising price discipline when you buy stocks. How could that possibly be a good thing?
It’s true that there is no way to anticipate the dates when prices will turn. Prices are determined by shifts in investor emotions. How is anyone supposed to predict those shifts?
But so what, you know? If prices are higher, risk is higher. So you lower your stock allocation to the extent needed to restore your risk profile to what you wanted it to be. When you do it that way, timing works on the day you make the allocation change. How could it ever not work?
My sincere take.
Rob