I’ve posted Entry #604 to my weekly Valuation-Informed Indexing column at the Value Walk site. It’s called The Efficient Market Theory Is an Ivory Tower Concoction.
Juicy Excerpt: I am living proof that not all information has been available to stock investors in recent years. I have been banned from numerous investing discussion boards and blogs. I have never once violated a posting rule. I am banned because I suggest that mispricing should be taken seriously and that investors are hurting themselves by permitting prices to get so out of control.
I don’t mean to suggest that the banning of my posts alone is such a big deal. But I have seen other people making similar points banned many times. And on many occasions I have seen people who have doubts about price indifferent strategies engage in self-censorship to avoid the embarrassment and banning that is visited on those who have doubts about Buy-and-Hold strategies and give free expression to those doubts.
Prices would certainly not be at the same levels if those who believe that market timing is required expressed those thoughts at every internet site. Those arguments obviously would not persuade all investors. But it is equally obvious that they would persuade some. And that would bring prices down. It seems inarguable to me that, if even one person has been banned from an internet discussion board because he advocated market timing at times of high stock prices that not all relevant information is available to stock investors. So the market is not today efficient.
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