I’ve posted Entry #607 to my weekly Valuation-Informed Indexing column at the Value Walk site. It’s called During a Price Crash, It Helps to Know How Far Prices Will Fall.
Juicy Excerpt: The 2008 experience is the first time in which the end of a bull/bear cycle did not bring the CAPE value all the way down to 8. Something like that may happen again someday. But given that we have only seen that scenario play out one time in U.S. stock market history, it should certainly be viewed as a long-shot possibility.
Someday you will get your revenge. The market will crash and all your enemies will be broke and in jail. Meanwhile the market timing fairy will sprinkle you will $500 million dollars in cash. Congress will establish a new Holiday in your honor. Time magazine will name you Man of the Year.Robert Shiller will ask you to go on tour with him. All we have to do is sit and wait for all this to play out.
Whatever. I will continue to say that I do not believe that the retirement study posted at John Greaney’s web site contains an adjustment for the valuation level that applies on the day the retirement begins. That’s the part that I control and that’s the part that matters to me, that I not sell out the friends that I have made on the various discussion boards and blogs because of pressures imposed by Buy-and-Hold dogmatics. I lost confidence in Buy-and-Hold when I saw the first death threat appear at the Motley Fool board and over 200 Buy-and-Holders endorsed it. There’s something not right about that picture, in my assessment.
Rob
Whatever. I will continue to say that my Tesla lacks a microwave oven.
Okay. I guess you win, Anonymous.
Rob