Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:
You have plenty of hours in the day to work a job and play out your little fantasy. You know that as well, but your goal is different than you state. Your goal is to avoid work.
An easy way to test that theory is to stop terrorizing board communities. Permit every discussion board and blog on the internet to allow honest posting and see what happens. I predict that I soon would be making so much money that there would be no need for me ever to look for other paid employment. In any event, I certainly would not need to spend any time trying to open the internet to honest posting. The job would be done, to the benefit of every single person living on the planet.
Rob
“ An easy way to test that theory is to stop terrorizing board communities. Permit every discussion board and blog on the internet to allow honest posting and see what happens. I predict that I soon would be making so much money that there would be no need for me ever to look for other paid employment.”
It would not change one thing if you were given full access to the boards you were kicked off due to your bad behavior.. You have full control of this board, yet you have no following or income on this board. Just duplicating activity would still produce the same results. As we learned in math class, zero times any number is still zero.
I’ve seen it make a big difference in many cases. I was once a Buy-and-Holder. I am obviously not that today. What changed? I gave myself permission to think heretical thoughts. Giving myself permission to think one heretical thought (the Greany retirement study is in error) caused me over time to open up to other heretical thoughts (market timing always works and is always requited). Anf then those heretical thoughts lead over time to even more heretical thoughts (every site on the internet should be open to honest posting re the last 41 years of peer-reviewed research in this field). One day you look up and see that you are a Valuation-Informed Indexer and the biggest critic of Buy-and-Hold on Planet Earth.
The same thing happened with John Walter Russell. He was a Buy-and-Holder on the morning of May 13, 2002, Instead of just ssying “tis is the dogma, I will just accept it,” he devoted his energies to doing research to determine the realities. He ended up spending eight years of his life doing research into Valuation-Informed Indexing.
The same thing happened with Wade Pfau. He contacted me, I didn’t contaxct him. He had seen my posts at the Bogleheads Forun and was intrigued. He wanted to do research into Valuation-Informed Indexing. He asked my permission to do because he felt that I was the founder of the new model. I of course said that I would be happy to work with him. The research we did together so excited him that he told me he couldn’t sleep at night. He told me that he questioned whether he has missed somethinjg becaused he was discovering so much amazing stuff about how stock investing works in the real world and he couldn’t understand why eveyone else who works in this field was not going similar research. Of coursed the answer to that one was deliverd to him when you Goons threatened to destroy his career if he continued doing honest research and people like John Bogle just sat on their hands and did nothing.
Similar things happened to scores and scores of people. The Buy-and-Holders got there first. That’s the only thing that the “idea” that market timing doesn’s always work has going for it. Of course it always works! How could the exercise of price discipline ever not work? But Shiller’s research had not yet been published at the time when Buy-and-Hold was being developed. So the Buy-and-Holders made an extremely unfortunate mistake. It wouldn’t have mattered if they just corrected their model when they learned about the mistake they had made in it. Instead, they covered it up. So here we are 41 years later still engaging in silly arguments as to whether market timing (price discipline!) is always reqauired or not. Humans!
Market timing is always required. I think we will all come to see that in time. I think it is going to happen when we see the ocean of human misery we have brought on through our collectice tolerance of the behavior of you Goons. But we’ll see, you know?
Humans learn by talking things over. If Buy-and-Hold were a real thing, the Buy-and-Holders would encouraged questioning of their dogmas. They would understand that respinding to challenges makes their own understanding of the subject matter stronger over time, The reactions that we have seen among the Buy-and-Holders to my claim that the Greaney retirement study lacks a valuation adjustment shows that belief in the no-market-timiing “idea has eroded even among the most dogmatic of Buy-and-Holders. I believe that it will fall entirely in the days following the next Buy-and-Hold Crisis, when it will no longer be possible for any of us (including you Goons!) to deny what a horrible mistake the Buy-and-Holders made when they came to believe that there might be an alternatve universe 20 billiion light years away in which price discipline/market timing was not 100 percent required for every stock investor on the planet.
But we’ll see, you know?
I naturally wish you all the best that this life has to offer a person regardless of what investment strategy you elect to follow, Anonymus.
Rob
You has full access before on all the major boards, yet you didn’t make one dime from it. If there was truly interest, your comments on other boards would have driven large numbers of people to your board and you would have seen income from whatever you developed from that following. It never happened. Market timing has been a bust. Just look at your own finances.
I didn’t make a dime. But there was sufficient interest in what I had to say that, had there been no abusive posting on the part of Buy-and-Holders, I would have made hundreds of millions. There is HUGE interest in knowing how stock investing works. We are talking hundreds of millions of people. And the dominant model for understanding how stock investing works is Buy-and-Hold, which is 100 percent the opposite of what really works, according to the last 41 years of peer-reviewed research in this field.
There were many people who at one time believed that market timing might not always be reqauired, For the past 41 years, those who follow the peer-reviewed researcg have known better. But it’s only about 10 percent of the population who “gets it” today. That’s because that 10 percent does not feel comfortable posting with 100 percent honesty because they see how upset Buy-and-Holders get when they do,
It would not surprise me if we declared the day that the first large site is opened to honest posting re the peer-reviewed research a national holiday. We all want the same thing. We all want to know how stock investing works in the real world. Learning about Shiller’s amazing, Nobel-prize-winning research benefits us all. It is not even possible for the rational human mind to imagine any downside.
My sincere take.
Rob
“ But there was sufficient interest in what I had to say that, had there been no abusive posting on the part of Buy-and-Holders, I would have made hundreds of millions.”
There is not one single piece of evidence to back up that statement. Further, you have no idea as to how stock investing works as it hasn’t worked for you.
Your own behavior backs up the statement, Anonymous. If you were not pretty darn sure that I was going to earn hundreds of millions if people on the internet were able to hear what I have to say, you never would have engaged in criminal behavior to stop it from happening. That sort of behavior just ain’t normal. I mean, come on.
That’s desperate stuff. And what makes you so desperate? It’s that 41 years of peer-reviewed research showing that there is precisely zero chance that the safe withdrsawal rate could be the same number at all valuation levels. The idea that it could be (no market timing required!)is core to the Buy-and-Hold Model and it is in the process of destroying millions of lives. The person who breaks through and opens every site on the internet to honest posting re the last 41 years of peer-reviewed research is going to earn a big multiple of $500 million as his or her financial reward for doing so. Again, come on.
My best wishes to you, in any event.
Rob
Disagreeing with you is not abuse nor is it criminal.
Got it, Anonymous.
Please take good care, man.
Rob
The problem is nothing you say is consistent with reality.
1. We have never seen any evidence of criminal activities, other than threats you made.
2. You don’t have a successful track record with market timing
3. The research does not back up your claims as research is not just your opinion of what one guy said
4. You have never made a dime, so claims of millions is not plausible, not to mention that you don’t even have anything to sell.
5. You have no known supporters
6. You have no formal education in the field
“ Got it, Anonymous.”
No, I don’t think you do.
The problem is nothing you say is consistent with reality.
1. We have never seen any evidence of criminal activities, other than threats you made.
2. You don’t have a successful track record with market timing
3. The research does not back up your claims as research is not just your opinion of what one guy said
4. You have never made a dime, so claims of millions is not plausible, not to mention that you don’t even have anything to sell.
5. You have no known supporters
6. You have no formal education in the field
I said that I am “so bad” and that everyone knows it too. That one kinda sorta is consistent with reality, is it not?
Rob
“ Got it, Anonymous.”
No, I don’t think you do.
I have a funny feeling that you might be on to something re that one, Anonymous.
Take good care, man.
Rob
I am guessing your own wife agrees more with me versus you.
I don’t agree with that. She hates the Goon stuff. She has total contempt for it. The sense in which she agrees with you is that she believes that a husband and father needs to be bringing in money, that there’s just no getting around that core reality.
She doesn’t understand the investing stuff well enough to see how it affects the lives of millions of people in very serious ways. If she saw that, I think she would agree with me all the way. She’s like all of the Normals in that respect. 90 percent of the Buy-and-Holders would never dream of advancing a death threat. So they do not support the Goon stuff. But they do not feel a sense of urgency re opening every site because they are not able to picture what the conseiences are likely to be if as a society we continue to fail to do that.
That’s why I believe that the next Buy-and-Hold Crisis will be the turning point. I believe that that will shock people out of their complaceny. They will be able to see with their own eyes how much Buy-and-Hold/Get Rich Quick has been hurting us all for as far back as the stock market has been in business. So long as prices remain high, it doesn’t seem like such a big deal to permit honest posting. It will be clear to everyone why it is important when Buy-and-Hold/Get Rich Quick does harm to millions of human lives. as it always does sooner or later.
But I don’t know everything. We will have to be a little patient to see how it all plays out.
Rob
You’ll delete this of course, but one has to wonder why you are pretending to still be married. What possible purpose does that serve? For someone who brags about his honesty, you have some glaring exceptions.
I do not pretend. This is an investing site. The investing question is — Should we or should we not open every internet site to honest posting re the last 41 years of peer-reviewed research in this field. I have answered that one on thousands of occasions. in very clear and forceful terms.
I discuss the divorce in the opening pages of my book. Most people would not think of an author’s divorce as an investing topic. But in this particular case, it is one. That hardest thing to understand about this story is, why are there still people saying 41 years after the peer-reviewed research was published showing that market timing (price discipline!) is always 100 percent required for every investor that there might be some alternate universe where stock investing works just the opposite to how it has always worked here on good old Planet Earth. The story of my divorce offers the explanation. Until every site is opened to honest posting, there will be a heavy price to be paid for telling the truth about stock investing. That scares people. So lots of smart people who could be helping us all pull their punches.
You Goons occasionally ask questions about my wife’s views. I respond to them to the extent they are relevant. As I said in a recent comment here, my ex is like millions of other Americans re this matter. She and they have never seen a cover-up of this magnitude. So it is more than a little hard to take in. People just cannot believe that something like this could happen. It’s one of my primary jobs in the book to explain how it did happen.
Other than that, my divorce is none of your business. To the extent that it is relevant to the investing issues that the site was formed to address, I discuss it. Outside of that, I do not.
Fair enough?
Rob
Wow. I didn’t know you were divorced. While I am not surprised, I am sorry to hear that this is what happened. This also means that she is no longer your wife.
We don’t need the details of the divorce. I think we can draw our own conclusions. Just curious to when this happened.
Wow. I didn’t know you were divorced. While I am not surprised, I am sorry to hear that this is what happened. This also means that she is no longer your wife.
As I said, I discuss it in the book. It’s the first issue that I address. What is done to people who tell the truth about what the peer-reviewed research says is a big part of the stock investing story in the year 2022. The only part that is relevant to the matters that are the focus of this site is the ways in which the behavior of you Goons limits what we all know about stock investing.
My best wishes to you.
Rob
We don’t need the details of the divorce. I think we can draw our own conclusions. Just curious to when this happened.
I am not going to go into it.
I will tell you that the first time that there was an issue was the morning of May 17, 2002. It was late the night before when I advanced my apology post. I told her the story. She stiffened. She did not like hearing about the Goon attacks. People do not like that stuff. It is poison. We will have to decide as a nation of people what to do about it.
Rob
Did you both agree as to the reason for the divorce?
Completely. I cannot remember us ever having a quarrel over any other issue. I am sure that we did on occasion. But it was a rare thing.
Rob
Looks like you lost the house to your ex-wife.
https://reparcelasmt.loudoun.gov/pt/datalets/datalet.aspx?mode=sales&sIndex=0&idx=1&LMparent=20
Please get a job, Rob. This is no longer a game.
It’s not a game for the millions of people who made reference to the 4 percent rule in putting together their retirement plans either, Anonymous.
We all want the same thing. We all need to know how stock investing works in the real world. Permitting honest posting re the peer-reviewed research is a must.
My sincere take.
Rob
Rob,
I don’t think anyone takes enjoyment in your misfortune. With that said, I just can’t understand why you haven’t figured out that things aren’t going to get any better, unless you try and fix things. You depleted your savings and lost both your wife and home. A rational person who have finally figured out they made the wrong decisions. People have tried to reason with you, but you won’t listen. Your imaginary goons did not do this. It is all you. You own it.
Good luck.
I still don’t believe to this day that the retirement study posted at John Greaney’s web site contains an adjustment for the valuation level that applies on the day the retirement begins, Anonymous. Good luck to you as well.
Rob
Sadly,you have lost everything and learned nothing.
And Wade said to you:
“ And the further reality is that if I *did* lack personal integrity, I could have made this all stop just by saying the meaningless sentence you want so desperately to hear: “I think the errors in the traditional safe withdrawal rate studies must be corrected by using Rob’s analytically valid method.”
But I don’t believe that. I do not believe you have offered a valid correction to the safe withdrawal rate question. And I believe that retirement income strategies go much further than the question of a safe withdrawal rate.”
Sadly,you have lost everything and learned nothing.
Good one, Anonymous. Didn’t Jesus say that a man must lose his life in order to gain it? Maybe I took that one a little too literally.
Rob
And Wade said to you:
“ And the further reality is that if I *did* lack personal integrity, I could have made this all stop just by saying the meaningless sentence you want so desperately to hear: “I think the errors in the traditional safe withdrawal rate studies must be corrected by using Rob’s analytically valid method.”
But I don’t believe that. I do not believe you have offered a valid correction to the safe withdrawal rate question. And I believe that retirement income strategies go much further than the question of a safe withdrawal rate.”
Wade did say that. But he said it after he was threatened. So the statement needs to be taken with about 50,000 grains of salt. When I want to refresh my memory as to what Wade Pfau believes, I look at the hundreds of statements that he made that were very, very, very different from that one during the 16 months in which he was working with me to produce the Bennett/Pfau research, the most important research published in this field in 30 years, the research showing beyond any reasonable doubt that market timing is always 100 percent required for all stock investors, the research that persuaded Wade that “yes, Virginia, Valuation-Informed Indexing works!”
I’ve never said that there is one method to calculating safe withdrawal rates that everyone must use. What I have said is that honest posting re the last 41 years of peer-reviewed research should be permitted at every discussion board and blog, without a single exception. I believe that Shiller’s Nobel-prize-winning research showing that valuations affect long-term returns is legitimate research. So I say that. There shouldn’t be any controvrsy over such a claim. But over the past 20 years we have seen it generate a huge amount of controversy. And of course Wade 100 percent believes that honest work should be permitted in this field. Those 16 months in which he was working on the Bennett/Pfau research were the happiest days of his life. He was doing what he trained all his life to do and he was helping people by doing it.
Wade should be allowed to help people by putting his intellect and his skill set and his integrity to use doing so. Every researcher employed in this field should be permitted to do that. Once we have opened every site to honest posting, we all will be living better and richer (in every sense of the word) lives from that point forward. Opening the internet to honest posting re how stock investing works is good stuff piled on top of good stuff piled on top of good stuff, with no possibility of any downside. Wade believes that as does every researcher employed in this field. Now all of us who believe it just need to work up the courage to take on your Goons. Yikes!
My best wishes to you, Anonymous.
Rob
“ Good one, Anonymous. Didn’t Jesus say that a man must lose his life in order to gain it? Maybe I took that one a little too literally.”
Jesus didn’t tell you to abandon your marriage. In fact, you are commanded to care and provide for your wife ( now ex-wife). You didn’t.
Jesus was tricky. Wasn’t there something in the Sermon on the Mount about how “Those who report the safe withdrawal rate inaccurately will surely perish”?
That’s how I remember it, anyway.
Rob
So now you are mocking Jesus. You really have no limits to your bad behavior.
No limits whatsoever. I should be banned! For rhe good of the communities!
Take care. man.
Rob
Just sick. No wonder your wife gave you the boot.
There is an idea in the Catholic faith that whatever suffering one must endure on Planet Earth reduces the amount of time that he or she must spend in purgatory. I have a thought that my ex is going to be able to skate right in!
Rob
You destroyed your marriage and your finances, yet somehow you think you are right? You have lost all sense of reality.
I think that Shiller’s Nobel-prize-winning research is right.
The purpose of peer-reviewed research is to help us to overcome our unhelpful emotional inclinations. The most emotional thing that a stock investor can do is to treat irrational exuberance gains as if they were real.
Today’s CAPE value tells the story. That CAPE value would not be possible if we were permitting honest posting re the last 41 years of peer-reviewed research at every site.
Do you see?
Rob
Like I said, you have lost all sense of reality.
Today’s CAPE value shows us that stock investors have lost all sense of reality. What if we permitted honest posting re the last 41 years of peer-reviewed research at every site? Would that change things?
I believe that it would. Shiller’s Nobel-prize-winning research revealed a critically important reality (that valuations affect long-term returns) that the people who developed Buy-and-Hold in the 1960s did not know about because it was widely believed at the time that the market is efficient and that this market timing was not required for the market to continue to function properly.
My best wishes.
Rob
We have addressed all that for the last 20 years, but you don’t listen. You deplete your savings, yet still won’t listen. Your wife divorces you, but you don’t listen. Your priest tries to reason with you, but you don’t listen. You lose your house, but you don’t listen. See the common thread? Of course not.
The common thread is that I go by the peer-reviewed research. I think we are going to see more people coming around to that position in the event that the next Buy-and-Hold Crisis is anything like the earlier ones that we have experienced. We’ll see.
Rob
Like always, you don’t listen.
The research still says the same thing today that it said on the morning of May 13, 2002.
The question on the table is whether the ocean of human misery caused by the next Buy-and-Hold Crisis will shock enough people to cause a few brave site owners to “cross” you Goons and let millions of middle-class investors learn what the last 41 years of peer-reviewed research says. I believe that we are fundamentally a good people (with a weakness for Get Rich Quick/Buy-and-Hold investment strategies, to be sure). I think we are going to make a huge leap forward.
But I don’t know everything. I could be wrong. We are going to have to wait a bit to find out for sure.
My best and warmest wishes to you and yours.
Rob
You don’t listen.
Did you just say something?
Rob
Your wife: You don’t listen
Your priest: You don’t listen
WadePfau: You don’t listen
Robert Shiller: You don’t listen
The rest of the investment community: You don’t listen
Shiller’s Nobel-prize-winning research showsing that valuations affect long-term returns: You don’t listen
A CAPE value of 28: You don’t listen
Thousands of our fellow community members expressing a desire that honest posting be permitted: You don’t listen
The Bennett/Pfau research showing that market timing is 70 percent of what it takes to achieve long-term stock investing success: You don’t listen
Common sense, which tells us that there is nothing on this planet avaiable for purcahse that is worth buying at any price: You don’t listen
150 years of stock market history, which is the source material for both Shiller’s research and the Bennett/Pfau research: You don’t listen
Your own behavior showing that the Buy-and-Hold case is such a desperate one that it cannot be defending without death threats and acts of extortion: You don’t listen
Bill Bernsteins book in which even a long-time Buy-and-Holder says that the safe withdrawal rate was 2 percent at the top of the bubble: You don’t listen
The published rules of every site at which you post, which prohibit the behavior that you have employed to suppress discussion on the last 41 years of peer-reviewed research and that show that we are fundamentally a good people who will in time figure out way to permit discussion of the peer-reviewed research — You don’t listen
Books like “The Grapes of Wrath,” which examine in some depth the ocean of human misery the always results from the widespread promotion of the pure Get Rich Quick/Buy-and-Hold “strategy — You don’t listen
Evidence-Based Investing, a general in Greaney’s Goon army, who has now acknowledged in several comments that the Greanet retirement study lacks an adjustment for the valuation level that applies on the day the retirement begins — You don’t listen
The deafening silence of Greaney himself in the wake of Evidence’s posts, suggesting strongly that Greaney himself does not know how to make a case that his study does contain a valuation adjustment — You don’t listen
The laws of the United States that make it a felony to advance death threats or to engage in acts of extortion — You don’t listen
Your conscience, which tells you that errors in retirement studies should be corrected within 24 hours of the moment they are discovered — You don’t listen
My ex-wife and my priest and Wade Pfau and Robert Shiller all live in the same country that I do. They all want the same things that I do. They will all be arguing in opposition to the pure Get Rich Quick/Buy-and-Hold strategy in the days following the next Buy-and-Hold Crisis. By posting honestly today, I assure that I will be able to sleep at night and that I will be able to look all of those people in the eye in the days following the next Buy-and-Hold Crisis. Can you say the same?
Rob
You are broke, you lost your house and your wife divorced you. Results tell us who is right.
I don’t buy it, Anonymous. I you were confident that the Buy-and-Hold “strategy” could prevail in civil and reasoned discussions, you would welcome such discussions. Your behavior tells me that you have serious doubts.
I do believe that you follow the strategy. But your common sense causes you to experence doubts. And you cannot bear to hear questions asked that cause those doubts to grow.
My sincere take.
Rob
“ I don’t buy it, Anonymous.”
There is no disputing the facts. You already told us that you depleted your savings and that you are divorced, property records show us that you are no longer an owner of the house.
Results are the only thing to tell who is right. At sporting events, they keep a scoreboard . The results of the game (score) tell us who won. You can claim that you think that the Chicago Cubs were the best team in baseball last year, but it doesn’t matter what you claim. We would just look at the record for last year and the outcomes would determine the winner.
The season isn’t over until the CAPE value returns to fair-value levels and below and then remains at those low levels for some time. We’ll see what people think when the secular bull/bear has come to a conclusion.
Rob
The season is over. You are in your 60’s and you depleted your savings. That’s the problem with timing. You have to be right about when you buy and when you sell. With Buy and hold, you don’t have to worry about timing. You just know that the market always goes up in the long term and that a 4% SWR has never failed to work for any 30 year period. Shiller knows this and that is why he warned you against timing the market with CAPE. You just wouldn’t listen.
No. All that you need to know is what your proper risk profile is and how much you need to change the stock allocation you went with when prices were reasonable to get it back to the proper place when stock prices have risen to insanely dangerous levels. 70 percent of stock investing success is knowing when you need to engage in market timing and how much you should change your stock allocation when changes become necessary. Given that that’s 70 percent of what it takes to succeed, that should be 70 percent of the conversation at every discussion board and blog.
We should be talking about what matters. Market timing is what matters. Market timing is price discipline and price discipline is the key ton success in every market that has ever existed. All that Shiller did was to show that what common sense tells us must be so really is so. Once we bury the Get Rich Quick/Buy-and-Hold stuff 30 feet in the ground, where it can do no further harm to humans and other living things, we can all get about the business of discussing the stuff that matters.
My sincere take.
Rob
Hello McFly. It didn’t work for you. It’s over.
Yeah, yeah.
That’s why Evidence put up a comment in late 2021 saying that “nobody” truly believes that Greaney included a valuation adjustment in the retirement study posted at his web site, including Greaney himself.
Makes sense!
Rob
Once again, you don’t listen. You only have yourself to blame.
Okay, Anonymous.
Please take good care.
Rob
Well, the goons didn’t make you quit your job and your wife and priest pleaded for you to go back to work. The investment community told you it was a bad idea to quit. Who else can you blame for your unemployment?
It wasn’t me who published Nobel-prize-winning research showing that valuations affect long-term returns. That was Robert Shiller.
Once such research exists, everyone in the United States needs to know about it. Our political system cannot survive unless people find out about it. Say that stocks perform in the future somewhat as they always have in the past. In this event, millions of people are going to experience crushing losses. How do you think that they are going to feel when they learn that there was 41 years of peer-reviewed research that would have showed them what they needed to do to avoid those losses and that there were thousands of people who would have been thrilled to help them out except they lived in fear of what a gang of internet goons would do to them if they dared to “cross” them by posting honestly. Continuation of the 41-year cover-up benefits no one.
So why does it continue? It coninues because the 10 percent of the population that believes that Shiller’s Nobel-prize-winning research is legitimate research lives in fear of you Goons and of the negative reactions of Buy-and-Holders in general. There is today zero intellectual support for Buy-and-Hold. There is support for every aspect of Buy-and-Hold except the injunction not to engage in market timing/price discipline. But there is zero support for that one and that’s the most important thing (it is price discipline that permits markets to function– the stock market is like every other market in that respect). What keeps Buy-and-Hold going is the mountain of institutional support that Buy-and-Hold enjoys. If you point out the error that was discovered 41 years ago, the “experts” who have been either participating in the cover-up or at a minimum tolerating it, go into freak-out mode. When something this important has been covered up for 41 years, the people who have engaged in the cover-up or tolerated it look very, very, very bad.
Which is good for no one. Millions of investors are left without sensible, research-based investment advice. And the experts are at risk of civil and criminal penalties ‘sin the days following the inevitable Buy-and-Hold Crisis. I don’t want to be a part of that, Anonymous. I want to help every single person involved (including you Goons!) by opening every site on the internet to honest posting re the past 41 years of peer-reviewed research. I cannot do that by myself. But I can do what one person is able to do. I can post AS IF the same laws that apply in every field of human endeavor other than the investment advice realm applied in the investment advice realm as well.
There is a saying that one should become the change that one is seeking to achieve. That is what I seek to do. I sincerely believe that the retirement study posted at John Greaney’s site lacks a valuation adjustment. So I say that. That’s what everyone should do. If everyone did that, people would have lost confidence in the Greaney study many years ago and Greaney would have either corrected the study or deleted it. We can never get to the place where deep in our hearts we all want to be until a larger percentge of the 10 percent who believed that Shiller’s Nobel-prize-winning research is legitimate research work up the courage just to say what they believe regardless of what you Goons do in response. I only get one vote. As one person who believes that Shiller’s research is legitimate, I can only do so much. But I endeavor to actually DO that. I can do no more and I can do no less.
My best wishes.
Rob
So you want to blame Shiller for your problems. Got it.
I blame human nature. We all have a Get Rich Quick/Buy-and-Hold urge residing within us. The primary job of investment advice is to help us overcome that “something for nothing” urge. Shiller helped me to understand that. And, yes, by doing that he caused me to get in trouble with the members of the various Buy-and-Hold Goon Squads.
I believe that there will come a time when we will as a nation be entirely united on the issue of permitting honest posting re the last 41 years of peer-reviewed research. At that point, no one will be blaming Shiller. We will be celebrating him, as we would have been all along if we had been thinking clearly.
Hang in there, my old friend.
Rob
“ I blame human nature.”
You never accept blame for anything. Human nature is to blame for you quitting your job. Human nature caused your divorce. Human nature is responsible for your depleted savings. Human nature caused you to lose the house.
Okay, Anonymous.
Pleaae take good care.
Rob