Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:
There is not one word in your definition in which you say you will listen and consider what someone else says.
I can promise that I will listen and that I will consider. I cannot promise that I will agree.
I have pondered these issues every day of my life for the past 20 years. I respect the Buy-and-Holders. I think they are intelligent and hard-working and seeking to do good. But I sincerely believe that they messed up re the market timing question. I believe that as a friend I owe it to them to point out where I think they messed up.
All of us humans have the capacity to make a mistake. It’s a horrible reality of life on Planet Earth. I tbink it’s great that in most circumstances we can count on our friends to sooner or later discover our mistake and to help us learn what we need to learn to fix it. In this particular case, the usual rules have not applied. I think that that’s because the issue (the safety of people’s retirements) is so important that the Buy-and-Holders just cannot bear to acknowledge the mistake and the rest of us feel funny pointing it out.
My take is that those of us who believe that Shiller’s Nobel-prize-winning research is legitimate researh are betraying our Buy-and-Hold friends by failing to point out the error. We are making things worse for them. We are causing them even more pain. Our Buy-and-Hold friends are hurting today. If they were thinking clearly, they would be at the head of the line of those saying that we need to open every discussion board and blog to honest posting re the last 41 years of peer-reviewed research.
That’s where I am coming from re this terribly important matter in any event, Anonymous. I naturally wish you all the best that this life has to offer a person, my old friend.
Rob
“ I believe that as a friend I owe it to them to point out where I think they messed up.”
Messed up? You mean like depleting your savings, getting divorced and losing your house?
How have you personally done better versus those you criticize?
I have lived my life in an honest way for the past 20 years.
I had friends at the Motley Fool board. I have refused to sell them out no matter what pressures were imposed on me to do so.
In an ideal world, I should not have suffered any financial penalty for my decision to post honestly. We obviously do not live in an idesl world. But, between the two, posting honestly and suffering a temporary financial penalty or posting dishonestly and having to find some way to live with myself, yes, I think I have made the better choice 500 times over. I am ashamed that I did not speak up about the error in the Greaney retirement study earlier. From May 13, 2002, forward, no regrets whatsoever. It will be interesting to see how it all plays out.
Rob
Honesty doesn’t cause people to go broke, get divorced or lose their house. It is more often the opposite.
You are certainly describing the norm, Anonymous. The investing advice field today is an upside-down world. If we all were thinking clearly, we all would have insisted that Greaney correct the error in his study within 24 hours of the moment that he learned about it. If we all were thinking clearly, there would not have been a single dissenting voice.
Rob
John Greaney made you quit your job? John Greaney made you deplete your savings? John Greaney made you get a divorce? John Greaney made you lose your house? You had nothing to do with all this?
I pointed out the error in Greaney’s retirement study. That was my contribution. The proper reaction on his end would have been to correct the study and then thank me for pointing out the error. Someone who points out an error you made in your retirement study is HELPIng you.
My sincere take.
Rob
How can we tell who is right and who is wrong? We look at history. What did you (and market timers) say 10 years ago and 20 years ago? Did it come true? Absolutely not. You told us to see how things would turn out. We watch and you failed. End of story.
Shiller’s research and the Bennett/Pfau research look at history, going back to 1870. You don’t look at history. All that you ever look at is the current-day price, which is highly misleading at times when the CAPE value is where it is today. If you looked at stock market history going back to 1870, we wouldn’t have any disagreement.
We haven’t seen prices crash yet. But, if the stock market continues to perform in the future anything at all as it always has in the past, we will.
Rob
Shiller and Pfau don’t agree with you. Too bad you ignored them.
Shiller titled his book “Irrational Exuberance.” And Pfau devoted 16 months of bis life to researching my ideas on stock investing, concluding at the end of the process that “Yes, Virginia, Valuation-Informed Indexing works!”
Rob
Yet neither agree with, nor will they talk to. In fact no one in the financial community will talk to you. Even your wife divorced you.
Will anyone talk to you in the days following the next Buy-and-Hold Crisis?
If we had all been thinking clearly, we would have opened the entire internest to honest posting on the day after Shiller published his Nobel-prize-winning research showing that valuations affect long-term returns (and the internet did not even exist at the time!). If we had done that, we would all be living richer (in every sense of the word) and fuller lives today. We certainly wouldn’t have a CAPE value threatening to bring on another economic crisis!
There’s shouldn’t be any “controversy” over whether or not to permit honest posting re the last 41 years of peer-revirewed research in this field. There is. But there shouldn’t be. The last 41 years of peer-reviewed research helps us all in very big ways. It is good stuff piled on top of good stuff piled on top of good stuff.
That’s my sincere take re this terribly important matter, in any event.
My best wishes to you and yours.
Rob
“ Will anyone talk to you in the days following the next Buy-and-Hold Crisis?”
How about Zombie Apocalypse or the when the Martian Moon People land on earth.
There is no controversy. Timing has failed. You have failed. Fix your problems.
Okay, Anonymous.
Please take good care.
Rob