Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:
You are broke, you lost your house and your wife divorced you. Results tell us who is right.
I don’t buy it, Anonymous. If you were confident that the Buy-and-Hold “strategy” could prevail in civil and reasoned discussions, you would welcome such discussions. Your behavior tells me that you have serious doubts.
I do believe that you follow the strategy. But your common sense causes you to experence doubts. And you cannot bear to hear questions asked that cause those doubts to grow.
My sincere take.
Rob
Why would I have doubts when I have over $6 million. It’s not like I am broke, unemployed and divorced.
Okay, Anonymous.
Please take good care.
Rob
You repeat the same things over and over again. You must be the one with doubts, so you are trying to convince yourself that you might be rescued from this disaster.
I’m not trying to convince myself. There are two things that I need to believe to conclude that the Grraney retirement study is in error. One, that the study lacks a valuation adjustment. And, two, that Shiller’s Nobel-prize-winning research showing that valuations affect long-term returns is legitimate research. I have a strong level of confidence that both of those things are so. Probably I have a little less confidence in Shiller’s research. Not that I see anything wrong with it. But just that it’s only been around for 41 years and it is a huge change from what we had before it was published. So I guess that a tiny bit of doubt is in order. And the vast majority of both the experts and the general population of investors (about 90 percent) don’t buy into it yet. So I think there’s room for some doubt there even though personally I don’t see any problems with it.
Even there, though, if there is grounds for a small amoint of doubt re Shiller’s research, there is also grounds for having confidence in it. The Nobel prize, etc. So in no circumstances should we not be discussing it at every investing site on the internet. Those wbo have doubts should be putting forward their case for why they have doubts and seeing whether their arguments are able to persuade those who do not have much in the way of doubts. So, even if there are grounds for a little bit of doubt re the ultimate legitimacy of Shiller’s research, there are no grounds for not opening every site on the internet to discussion of its far-reaching implications. Re that one, I don’t have doubts.
I of course understand that you Goons do not discuss these matters in good faith, I of course came to understand that on the afternoon of May 13, 2002. So what you are really asking is, why do I engage with you Goons? Given your attitude, there is no way that any discussions could lead to a successful resolution of our differences. So why do I engage with you? When I do, I just end up saying the same thing over and over again. It could be said that that’s a waste of time. That’s a fair thing to say. Does it reveal some lack of confidence on my end that I continue to engage with you Goons?
It shows something. This is an exceedingly strange story. In the event that Shiller’s research is legitimate, we are as a nation of people destroying wealth every day that the Ban on Honest posting remains in place. People need to make decisions about their financial futures. Businesses need to make decisions about whether to expand or contract various product lines. It’s not possible to make effective decisions re such matrers without knowing where you stand financially and how things are going for you financially. And you can’t know that unless you know how much irrational exuberance is present in the currecent stock price. That’s an essential part of the story, according to the last 41 years of peer-reviewed research. So lots of people are at risk if this thing does not get resolved properly and promptly. Millions of people. Hundreds of millions of people.
That puts a lot of weight on my shoulders, Anonymous. That’s why I continue to engage with you and the other goons.
You don’t engage in good faith. Obviously. But you have every motivation in the world to do so. We all need to know how stock investing works. Being a Buy-and-Hold Goon doesn’t change that for you. So on some level of consciousness, you have to possess some concern as to how things really work. So in theory something might be said in out discussions that would break through your thick wall of resistance and persuade you to open every discussion board and blog on the internet to honest posting re the past 41 years of peer-reviewed research. Even if the odds of that happening are 1 in 10,000, given that this matter affects hundreds of millions of people. I think that a good argument could be made that I should give it a try. I don’t believe that it is going to happen. I gave up believing that it was going to happen many, many years ago. But, given the importance of the matter, I still believe that it is worth a try.
The other thing is that I believe that engaging with you raises the possibility that I will develop new insights into the matter. Enaging forces me to arrange my thoughts and articulate them. It requires me to think things through in ways that I would not if I were not engaging in discussions with people who hold contrary views. I think there’s some value there. I want to understand this stuff as well as I can possibly understand it. So I continue to engage. I continue to “repeat the same things over and over again,” as you put it, even though I do not believe that saying those things is going to persuade you even a tiny bit to permit honest posting.
The thing that I believe will open up opportunities for all of us to engage in more fruitful discussions is the next Buy-and-Hold Crisis. When people experience the ocean of human misery that always inevitably follows from the relentless promotion of the pure Get Rich Quick/Buy-and-Hold “strategy,” I believe that their hearts will open and they will see the need to work up the courage to take on you Goons. I don’t believe that anything else can break through that wall, given how long the cover-up has continued. But we’ll see, you know?
My best wishes to you.
Rob
You did it again. A long winded repeat of old material. You obviously have doubts, as pointed out.
Please take good care, Anonymous.
Rob